Poltergeist,
I like BG +33. I watched them play Ohio State to 17-24 in Columbus last year. Granted, that was last year, but BG has to be considered a "decent" team if not a good one.
Here's the big reason why I like BG to cover....OU will want to work on their running game. OU had a very weak running game last season, although it wasn't exposed until late in the season. They will want to give their true freshman phenom RB and the o-line (first and 2nd stringers) lots of reps and not over-exert anyone in week one, which will chew up clock.
OU is capable of winning 70-0 (as they did against Texas A&M last year), but I see the Sooners getting up by 4 TDs and then working on the run game, leaving the "backdoor" open for a Falcon cover. I see the Sooners scoring in the low to mid 40s, so if the Falcons can score 10-14 points on OUs 3rd & 4th stringers (and I think they can), they will cover. Of course, I could be wrong, but I love being up by 33 points at kickoff. GL