OT: Housing Slump Worst Since The Great Depression

[Coaster]

It probably will create its own bubble, but whats different about Vancouver is that there are fundamental reasons why its doing well instead of the financial gimmicks that created much of the US housing bubble.

Alot of resource based companies are based in the area and Canada has a growing economy.

Specifically within Canada, Vancouver and all of BC has alot of Asians and since thats the place in the world thats economically growing the most in the world, Vancouver gains benefits from that.

You are right. Vancouver is completely unique. The a baby boomers are retiring and have to stay in Canada 6 months of the year or lose health benefits.
The only place the weather is mild and you have culture is a small enclave called The Lowermainland.
So the migration here is insane. Plus huge immigration from the Orient. Asian pop is almost larger than SF.
Nobody, except me is from here

 

[maruiz85]

Good to hear. Still waiting to buy my first house. So glad I didn't do it 1-3 years ago.

i hear ya, living in a place where little condos can easily go for half a mil, I think i'll never be able to own here.

I feel kind of like a dick for keep wanting this slump to continue

 

[FuriousDrew]

You are right. Vancouver is completely unique. The a baby boomers are retiring and have to stay in Canada 6 months of the year or lose health benefits.
The only place the weather is mild and you have culture is a small enclave called The Lowermainland.
So the migration here is insane. Plus huge immigration from the Orient. Asian pop is almost larger than SF.
Nobody, except me is from here

Great points Dawoofdaddy and Coaster. I was wrong with my initial average home cost in Vancouver, it actually hit $795K by the end of 2007:

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/...=7975244c-230f-4d64-8df2-28e963e3bb14&k=93855

With an expected 12% increase over 2008, I just have to wonder how long it can possibly go on for without a downward swing. With prices already having risen a cumulative 70% since 2001 and wages surely not increasing by those numbers, a bubble has to happen at some point. At least I hope it will...

 

[Woody0]

It probably will create its own bubble, but whats different about Vancouver is that there are fundamental reasons why its doing well instead of the financial gimmicks that created much of the US housing bubble.

While Vancouver is a unique situation I don't think anywhere in Canada has a falling real estate market, since we never had those financial gimmicks.

My assessment came this week and the valuation is up 34% over 2 years ago. I don't expect the market to fall, or at least not much. I think it is more likely for prices to stabilize or show small increases for a few years, while the market absorbs its recent climb.

What I find more incredible is how the sub-prime mortgage paper has completely destabilized international financial markets threatening a global recession spawned by the liquidity crunch.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Woody, I never posted any specific markets in Canada were in a bubble phase.

In fact, I have been and Im still very bullish overall about Canada generally speaking.

It will become a bubble once the commodity bull market becomes a bubble, but thats many years away.

 

[WVU]

Oh boy. Rumors today that Countrywide is about to declare bankruptcy. Not exactly surprising, but this will REALLY send things into a spin.

I just closed on a Countrywide loan. These guys going under was just a matter of time

 

[Fishhead]

I just closed on a Countrywide loan. These guys going under was just a matter of time

Going to withdrawl a lump sum today from my savings at Countrywide..........the time has come to play it safe.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Fishhead get ANY and ALL of your assets out of Countrywide.

Washington Mutual is another toilet bowl thats going to be up soon enough.

Bank of America is probably better to use since that one wont go bust without US Govt stepping in.

Of course the deposits are insured but its not worth having to stand in line once people hear about it going bankrupt.

Countrywide has fallen from mid 40s to 4 in less than one year.

Countrywide Financial is toast. We've been saying this in political forum sell, sell sell thread for many months.

%^_

 

[WVU]

Fishhead get ANY and ALL of your assets out of Countrywide.

Washington Mutual is another toilet bowl thats going to be up soon enough.

Bank of America is probably better to use since that one wont go bust without US Govt stepping in.

Of course the deposits are insured but its not worth having to stand in line once people hear about it going bankrupt.

Countrywide has fallen from mid 40s to 4 in less than one year.

Countrywide Financial is toast. We've been saying this in political forum sell, sell sell thread for many months.

%^_

Washington Mutual? There is no way they are going under. They would surely get bought out first, but I doubt even that happens anytime soon

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

WVU, I think you need to get yourself into reality and quit wishing upon stars.

Long term chart of Washington Mutual (WM).

Washington Mutual, whether or not they actually go up, has very serious troubles.

 

[WVU]

doesn't that resemble many mortgage stocks? That does look pretty bad but they are a huge bank with other interests other than Mortgages

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Yes it resembles many other bank/mortgage stocks, but what does that have to do with the fact they are toast?

They can fail whether or not they are a huge bank.

I dont believe they are one of the major banks that will receive US govt implied protection.

 

[WVU]

good point

 

[WVU]

banks don't go under, generally they merge. When is the last time a major bank folded and the FDIC protection came into play?

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Long term for Countrywide.

Whats sad and also dumb is that probably alot of people that have worked at CFC their entire lives probably also have (had) the bulk of their retirement savings in the company stock.

A very dumb move and if others here are doing that reconsider your retirement account allocations.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

banks don't go under, generally they merge. When is the last time a major bank folded and the FDIC protection came into play?

This is merely a guess but Id guess the S/L crisis of early 1990s saw some pain. I was too young to know or care then.

The current crisis is exponentially larger than anything comparable in US history.

For whatever reasons people still remain asleep at the wheel.

Another example of the old axiom that "men make their fathers fathers mistakes".

 

[Woody0]

This is merely a guess but Id guess the S/L crisis of early 1990s saw some pain. I was too young to know or care then.

My recollection is that the taxpayers paid for the S/L excesses through government bailout.

Biggest Canadian exposure currently seems to be CIBC which has written off $2 billion due to the sub-prime paper.

 

[WVU]

Good Info Woofdaddy. You scare the crap out of me, but keep it coming nonetheless.