As some of you know, I had a running thread awhile ago dealing with betting NHL games to go to OT. I had noticed the propensity of close games being played in the NHL this year and just blindly betting the draw line was +EV due to the 25% rate, (or actually a bit higher), they were coming in for the year and the average take back price of +300.
The running thread had it’s ups and downs and I quit on it losing a unit or two.
Even taking the +1.5 on the goal line was a steady money maker with the great abundance of one goal games.
Never before this year have games going to OT come in at a 25% clip so the return to norm was inevitable. But it seems it's gone the complete opposite.
For the last 2 weeks, (beginning Sunday 12/28), OT games are down dramatically and so are favorites covering the spread.
89 games have been played over the last 2 weeks.
13 games have made it to OT for a 15% average. Clearly a losing proposition.
57 favorites have won for a 64% average.
However, of those 57 favorites, 44 have won by two goals or more. A 77% rate.
Or in other words of all the games played over the last couple weeks 49% have seen the favorite cover the -1.5.
Will this reversal of parity continue or will a return of tight games be seen? For three months the tight games were the norm. I’m believing the blow outs will continue through the dog days of this NHL season.
My prediction is the three point games will return, (as usual), in late April and March. In the mean time.....
The running thread had it’s ups and downs and I quit on it losing a unit or two.
Even taking the +1.5 on the goal line was a steady money maker with the great abundance of one goal games.
Never before this year have games going to OT come in at a 25% clip so the return to norm was inevitable. But it seems it's gone the complete opposite.
For the last 2 weeks, (beginning Sunday 12/28), OT games are down dramatically and so are favorites covering the spread.
89 games have been played over the last 2 weeks.
13 games have made it to OT for a 15% average. Clearly a losing proposition.
57 favorites have won for a 64% average.
However, of those 57 favorites, 44 have won by two goals or more. A 77% rate.
Or in other words of all the games played over the last couple weeks 49% have seen the favorite cover the -1.5.
Will this reversal of parity continue or will a return of tight games be seen? For three months the tight games were the norm. I’m believing the blow outs will continue through the dog days of this NHL season.
My prediction is the three point games will return, (as usual), in late April and March. In the mean time.....
