Awards tonight, few thoughts for those who may want a bet or two.
Picture - Majority of "experts" on 12 Years with a decent few on Gravity. Almost everybody suggests this is too close to call though. Feeling is the heavier feeling 12 Years will edge it but from strictly a betting standpoint I think a bet on Gravity at near 4-1 odds is a must bet. Might want to cover on AH as well, really between these three in this order.
Best Actor - McConaughey seen as a big frontrunner and he will likely win. Leo odds have been cut but not really feeling that route. Ejiofor and Dern probably more likely than Leo if there is a big upset. Dern odds make him more interesting from a betting standpoint. Nebraska is probably more liked with the academy than the youth driven internet and having all kinds of friends in the Academy isn't going to hurt. On the surface seems very unlikely but got the feeling he is getting more votes then most believe. 40-1+ definitely worth a shot.
Sup.Actress - Nyongo v Lawrence, lean towards Nyongo getting it but current odds seem pretty on the money. Perhaps a small bet at best. Also might want to put a tiny bit on Squibb for the upset, she might be able to get 25%+ of the vote and win with vote splitting occurring.
Doc Feature - Suggested The Square as bit of a spoiler before. Still think it has a chance but getting the feeling 20 Feet From Stardom may be too hard to stop. Feel good one of the bunch with decent reviews and been on the campaign trail last few weeks. Only constant thought remained here is that despite the rave critical reviews of Act of Killing its subject matter will be too difficult for members and it shouldn't be the favorite.
Foreign - Believe Great Beauty is a vulnerable frontrunner, I think votes are being spread around. Suppose in the end that might help Great Beauty but I certainly don't get the feeling it is going to get 30%+ of the vote. The Hunt probably next in line with Broken Circle Breakdown also possible. Maybe even Omar could win. Best bet is to oppose Great Beauty, don't have a strong feeling on the next likeliest though.
Costume - Again weak frontrunner imo. Gatsby not well liked and only with two nominations here and in Production Design, not sure it takes both. I think Hustle is a serious threat and 12 Years also possible. Roughly +200 if you try this.
Live Action Short - Voorman Problem listed the favorite but I'm pretty sure its not winning. From the sounds of it the French entry Just before losing Everything should win with rave reviews but it might be spoiled by a sappy bait type entry called Helium. Confident it will be one of these two with the French film still a bit more likely to take it.
gl
Picture - Majority of "experts" on 12 Years with a decent few on Gravity. Almost everybody suggests this is too close to call though. Feeling is the heavier feeling 12 Years will edge it but from strictly a betting standpoint I think a bet on Gravity at near 4-1 odds is a must bet. Might want to cover on AH as well, really between these three in this order.
Best Actor - McConaughey seen as a big frontrunner and he will likely win. Leo odds have been cut but not really feeling that route. Ejiofor and Dern probably more likely than Leo if there is a big upset. Dern odds make him more interesting from a betting standpoint. Nebraska is probably more liked with the academy than the youth driven internet and having all kinds of friends in the Academy isn't going to hurt. On the surface seems very unlikely but got the feeling he is getting more votes then most believe. 40-1+ definitely worth a shot.
Sup.Actress - Nyongo v Lawrence, lean towards Nyongo getting it but current odds seem pretty on the money. Perhaps a small bet at best. Also might want to put a tiny bit on Squibb for the upset, she might be able to get 25%+ of the vote and win with vote splitting occurring.
Doc Feature - Suggested The Square as bit of a spoiler before. Still think it has a chance but getting the feeling 20 Feet From Stardom may be too hard to stop. Feel good one of the bunch with decent reviews and been on the campaign trail last few weeks. Only constant thought remained here is that despite the rave critical reviews of Act of Killing its subject matter will be too difficult for members and it shouldn't be the favorite.
Foreign - Believe Great Beauty is a vulnerable frontrunner, I think votes are being spread around. Suppose in the end that might help Great Beauty but I certainly don't get the feeling it is going to get 30%+ of the vote. The Hunt probably next in line with Broken Circle Breakdown also possible. Maybe even Omar could win. Best bet is to oppose Great Beauty, don't have a strong feeling on the next likeliest though.
Costume - Again weak frontrunner imo. Gatsby not well liked and only with two nominations here and in Production Design, not sure it takes both. I think Hustle is a serious threat and 12 Years also possible. Roughly +200 if you try this.
Live Action Short - Voorman Problem listed the favorite but I'm pretty sure its not winning. From the sounds of it the French entry Just before losing Everything should win with rave reviews but it might be spoiled by a sappy bait type entry called Helium. Confident it will be one of these two with the French film still a bit more likely to take it.
gl
