Baltimore @ Toronto
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays (Stroman) @1.72
Predictive Model:
Bookmakers give Toronto around 58% of chance to win this game and with that the odds of around 1.72. My predictive model gives Toronto little bit more chance to win in this one – around 61% and with that odds of around 1.64 and small value on Blue Jays.
Match Up
The winner is going to playoffs, the other team is going home and this is most important game for both teams this seaosn, no doubt. Toronto will start with Marcus Stroman, who has negative record, but his pitching is not that bad and I rank him even higher than Chris Tillman on other side. But what is interesting here is that both pitchers have some bad numbers agianst today’s hitters. Let’s take a look:
Batter vs AB H XBH HR RBI BB K AVG
Chris Davis Marcus Stroman 10 4 0 0 2 0 2 0.4
Ryan Flaherty Marcus Stroman 11 3 2 1 4 0 3 0.273
Adam Jones Marcus Stroman 15 6 0 0 2 1 1 0.4
Mark Trumbo Marcus Stroman 11 5 2 0 0 1 2 0.455
Matt Wieters Marcus Stroman 12 5 3 2 6 0 1 0.417
Jose Bautista Chris Tillman 45 12 7 3 7 8 11 0.267
Ezequiel Carrera Chris Tillman 10 3 1 1 3 0 1 0.3
Edwin Encarnacion Chris Tillman 58 17 6 3 5 4 7 0.293
Russell Martin Chris Tillman 14 6 3 0 1 7 2 0.429
Kevin Pillar Chris Tillman 23 8 4 3 6 0 4 0.348
Michael Saunders Chris Tillman 21 6 3 2 3 2 3 0.286
Troy Tulowitzki Chris Tillman 10 4 3 2 3 0 1 0.4
Melvin Upton Jr. Chris Tillman 14 3 2 1 2 3 1 0.214
Couple of Orioles hitters have some good numbers against Stroman, but when it comes to Tillman, the situation is even more concerning. Toronto’s hitters hit him hard in the past. Bautista, Encarnacion and Pillar they all have 3 home runs against him. His numbers against Toronto in Toronto are very bad: 2-6 and ERA 7.01. He played well this season against them, but still Baltimore has bad record in Toronto. They won only 25 games out of last 81 in played in Toronto. I also rank Toronto bullpen higher, but this game will be special and I believe some other starters, like Ubaldo Jimenez will jump in if needed. Toronto starters have one of the best ERA in MLB. They have 4th best ERA overall this season, while Orioles starters are ranked #24.
Reason for pick:
I like playing dogs, especially in playoffs, but I think Toronto is the right play, because of couple of things. Toronto has some good success at home versus Baltimore or if I can say, Baltimore usually struggle in Toronto. Baltimore is also not very good road team. Their record on the road is 39-42, which is not even positive. You may say, this is very important game. Yes it is, but very important games, were all games last two weeks and they still lost that very important game versus Yankees. And they will have on other side a team, who will play at home, where have positive record (46-35) and they won 56 games in last 81 meetings at home. My numbers rank Stroman higher and I don’t use only ERA, which is not very good predictive numbers, but couple of other important data. I also rank Toronto pitching stuff higher than Orioles. When we put togheter all those numbers togheter, home team advantage I think we have a small play on Toronto.
Play Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays (Stroman) @1.72
Predictive Model:
Bookmakers give Toronto around 58% of chance to win this game and with that the odds of around 1.72. My predictive model gives Toronto little bit more chance to win in this one – around 61% and with that odds of around 1.64 and small value on Blue Jays.
Match Up
The winner is going to playoffs, the other team is going home and this is most important game for both teams this seaosn, no doubt. Toronto will start with Marcus Stroman, who has negative record, but his pitching is not that bad and I rank him even higher than Chris Tillman on other side. But what is interesting here is that both pitchers have some bad numbers agianst today’s hitters. Let’s take a look:
Batter vs AB H XBH HR RBI BB K AVG
Chris Davis Marcus Stroman 10 4 0 0 2 0 2 0.4
Ryan Flaherty Marcus Stroman 11 3 2 1 4 0 3 0.273
Adam Jones Marcus Stroman 15 6 0 0 2 1 1 0.4
Mark Trumbo Marcus Stroman 11 5 2 0 0 1 2 0.455
Matt Wieters Marcus Stroman 12 5 3 2 6 0 1 0.417
Jose Bautista Chris Tillman 45 12 7 3 7 8 11 0.267
Ezequiel Carrera Chris Tillman 10 3 1 1 3 0 1 0.3
Edwin Encarnacion Chris Tillman 58 17 6 3 5 4 7 0.293
Russell Martin Chris Tillman 14 6 3 0 1 7 2 0.429
Kevin Pillar Chris Tillman 23 8 4 3 6 0 4 0.348
Michael Saunders Chris Tillman 21 6 3 2 3 2 3 0.286
Troy Tulowitzki Chris Tillman 10 4 3 2 3 0 1 0.4
Melvin Upton Jr. Chris Tillman 14 3 2 1 2 3 1 0.214
Couple of Orioles hitters have some good numbers against Stroman, but when it comes to Tillman, the situation is even more concerning. Toronto’s hitters hit him hard in the past. Bautista, Encarnacion and Pillar they all have 3 home runs against him. His numbers against Toronto in Toronto are very bad: 2-6 and ERA 7.01. He played well this season against them, but still Baltimore has bad record in Toronto. They won only 25 games out of last 81 in played in Toronto. I also rank Toronto bullpen higher, but this game will be special and I believe some other starters, like Ubaldo Jimenez will jump in if needed. Toronto starters have one of the best ERA in MLB. They have 4th best ERA overall this season, while Orioles starters are ranked #24.
Reason for pick:
I like playing dogs, especially in playoffs, but I think Toronto is the right play, because of couple of things. Toronto has some good success at home versus Baltimore or if I can say, Baltimore usually struggle in Toronto. Baltimore is also not very good road team. Their record on the road is 39-42, which is not even positive. You may say, this is very important game. Yes it is, but very important games, were all games last two weeks and they still lost that very important game versus Yankees. And they will have on other side a team, who will play at home, where have positive record (46-35) and they won 56 games in last 81 meetings at home. My numbers rank Stroman higher and I don’t use only ERA, which is not very good predictive numbers, but couple of other important data. I also rank Toronto pitching stuff higher than Orioles. When we put togheter all those numbers togheter, home team advantage I think we have a small play on Toronto.
Play Toronto Blue Jays
