Oregon-Ohio St. on record pace

Akillies · Jan 12, 2015

[h=1]Oregon-Ohio St. on record pace[/h]
Updated: January 12, 2015, 8:31 AM ET
<cite class="source"> By David Purdum | ESPN.com</cite>

[h=5]Bet Sharp: Oregon vs. Ohio State[/h]Paul Bessire joins Colin Cowherd to provide betting advice for the College Football Playoff National Championship presented by AT&T.Tags: NCF, Oregon Ducks, Ohio State Buckeyes

[h=6]NEXT VIDEO

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The Player's Keys To Victory

The excitement generated by the first College Football Playoff has bubbled over to the betting window.
Heading into game day, the College Football Playoff National Championship presented by AT&T between Oregon and Ohio State was on pace to be the most heavily bet college football game ever at William Hill's Nevada sports book.
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<cite>AP Photo/Eric Gay)</cite>The College Football Playoff National Championship presented by AT&T between Oregon and Ohio State is on pace to be the most heavily bet college football game ever.

William Hill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich estimates the Oregon-Ohio State game will attract "20 percent" of the amount wagered on the Super Bowl at his book.
A record $119.4 million was bet on the Super Bowl last year at Nevada sports books.
"It's as big as any college football game that I can remember," Bogdanovich, a 28-year Vegas veteran, said of the handle.
Both semifinals -- Florida State versus Oregon and Alabama versus Ohio State -- surpassed last season's championship game between Auburn and Florida State in the total amount wagered and the number of bets placed, according to William Hill spokesman Michael Grodsky. Monday's game (8:30 p.m., ESPN) is expected to eclipse both marks.
Some of the increase can be attributed to William Hill's growth. The prominent UK bookmaker received its Nevada gaming license in 2012 and now operates sports books at 104 locations state-wide. But other Nevada books also reported heavy handle on Ducks and Buckeyes.
"It'll be easily as big as one of these games we've got going on today," MGM vice president of race and sports Jay Rood said, referring to Sunday's NFL playoff games. "We'll be into the seven figures (on Ohio State-Oregon)."
Books are expecting "50-60 percent" of bets to be placed Monday with the bulk of the action showing up in the hours leading up to kickoff.
"To have as much as we've written before day of the game is pretty impressive," said Ed Salmons, head football oddsmaker at the Westgate SuperBook.
John Avello, executive director of the Wynn Race and Sports Book, said as of Sunday night the biggest bets he had taken on the championship game were in the five-figure range.
"There hasn't been any six-figure wagers so far," Avello said. "It's all been $20,000, $30,000, $40,000, a lot of those on both sides."
SportsInsights.com, a sports betting analytics site, reported Sunday that 54,981 bets had been placed on the game at the seven online sports books it tracks.
The semifinal games between Florida State and Oregon, and Ohio State and Alabama each attracted more than 100,000 bets.
Oregon was favored by 6 over the Buckeyes at most books heading into game day. The Ducks opened as 7-point favorites, but the line had dropped to as low as minus-5 during the week. The point spread was growing back to Oregon late Sunday.
Las Vegas sports book operator CG Technology reported a flurry of action on the Ducks on Sunday night.
Bogdanovich said William Hill had taken twice as much money on Oregon than Ohio State, heading into game day.

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mrwho · Jan 12, 2015

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Akillies · Jan 12, 2015

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:12150514

Akillies · Jan 12, 2015

mrwho said:
amy leans akillies?

[h=3]Ohio State Buckeyes (plus-6) vs. Oregon Ducks[/h]
Fallica: For those who got a bet down on Ohio State to win the national championship at 40-1 or 50-1 (available after Braxton Miller's injury), good luck to you.
This game is a convergence of two powerful opposite forces. Coach Urban Meyer is 5-0 at Ohio State as an underdog, including the Buckeyes' win over Alabama as a 7.5-point 'dog in the Sugar Bowl. Oregon, on the other hand, has been a bettor's dream, covering nine straight games, winning all by double-digits and scoring at least 40 points in each game. However, the BCS and New Year's Six games have tended to go the way of the underdog. In the 11 games played in the past two seasons, underdogs have covered nine of the games, winning eight outright.
While Oregon has been unstoppable offensively and forced some timely turnovers against Florida State, there is reason for concern. Oregon has faced just two Power 5 defenses that rank in the top 20 nationally against Power 5 opponents in yards per play allowed, while facing four of the worst 14 defenses. Florida State is 33rd among 65 Power 5 teams in yards per play allowed -- essentially an average defense. Ohio State ranks fourth in this category.
In points per drive allowed, the Ducks have faced three of the four worst teams in this category -- and just one top-12 team. Florida State ranks 41st in this category, while Ohio State ranks 13th. So this will statistically be the second-best defense the Ducks have faced (Stanford was the best). But unlike Stanford, Ohio State has a potent offense.
While Oregon did hold FSU to 20 points and force five turnovers, remember FSU had 528 yards of offense and averaged 6.0 yards per play. Oregon is an incredible plus-20 in turnover margin and plus-141 in points-off-TO margin this season. If Ohio State holds onto the ball, it will be in great shape to win.

<cite>AP Photo/Brynn Anderson</cite>Ezekiel Elliott is expected to play a big role.

These two met in the 2010 Rose Bowl, and it was one of the worst offensive performances Oregon has had in recent years. Since 2009, when Chip Kelly became coach, Oregon has played 80 total games. In that Rose Bowl versus Ohio State, the Ducks managed 17 points, 260 yards and converted 18 percent of third downs. Those numbers rank 76th, 79th and 77th, respectively, among the 80 games played. Now, yes, this is an Oregon team with Marcus Mariota (3-0 in bowl games, with a QBR of 89.0) and that Ohio State defense had a ton of future NFL players. But there has to be reason to think Ohio State could have success slowing down the Ducks, especially given how great the Buckeyes' defense played on third down against Alabama.
But could one of these teams be set up for a letdown? Oregon just clobbered the reigning national champs, ending FSU's 29-game winning streak in a record-setting Rose Bowl performance. Ohio State just upset Alabama to "justify" its selection in the CFP. It would only be human nature for one of these teams to have left it all on the field in the semifinal.
A fact I found surprising was that teams are 12-2 the game after beating Alabama. Now, I understand some of those 14 opponents may have had nonconference games, but for the most part, teams haven't had a letdown after beating Nick Saban's Tide. On the other side, teams are just 3-6 in the last nine games following a win over Florida State.
Don't be surprised if this game is lower scoring than you anticipate. The 2010 championship game between Oregon and Auburn was scoreless after one quarter and ended 22-19.
I've been on the Buckeyes for a while now and they have done nothing to cause me to abandon ship. The season will conclude Monday night with Meyer capturing his third overall national championship, bringing the Buckeyes to the top in just his third year at Ohio State.
Pick: Ohio State 34, Oregon 24 (confidence: 8)

Coughlin: Well, well, well ... what do we have here? Where is the SEC? Where is the best division in the history of the sport (the SEC West)? Where is the talk about how the state of Alabama is being represented for the whatever-straight year? And where is the team from Tallahassee? The team that was so disrespected by being more than a touchdown underdog in the Rose Bowl?
Nowhere. And you know what? We have a great matchup set for Monday night.
First we have the favorite, the Ducks. The talk about the Pac-12 getting back on top of the college football world really intrigues me because I played in that conference (for Stanford) and I would love for it to bring home another title. It's been too long (2004, USC). But then I hear people from Pac-12 schools say they don't want Oregon to win, and all this mess about how they don't like them. I think playing in the same conference as the national champion is something to hang your hat on.
The question for me concerning the Ducks when it comes to Monday night is whether they live up to the hype. This is a stage that has never been a part of the sport. The ability to win such a big game on New Year's Day and then ramp it up again and try and win an even bigger game seems like a lot for young athletes. But that's why they play the game, right?
Then we have the underdog, the Buckeyes. No one thrives on being the underdog more than Meyer. It doesn't happen often, but he is 5-0 as a 'dog during his time at Ohio State.

<cite>Ezra Shaw/Getty Images</cite>Can Mark Helfrich and the Ducks contain Ohio State's offense?

I expect Ohio State to run the ball with QB Cardale Jones more than 20 times, incorporating all sorts of looks. I think the Buckeyes believe they can pound on the ground. And when I look at the Buckeyes' defense, I think they have the goods to control Oregon's offense. Ohio State has good speed in the secondary, great linebackers who can run side to side, and of course the physical front line led by Michael Bennett and Joey Bosa.
So, when it comes time to pick the game, I listen to Todd McShay, director of scouting for ESPN's Scouts Inc. He said that Ohio State has more speed than Oregon -- how many teams in the country can say that? Plus, you add into the mix Ohio State's daily defense practices against tempo. I know Oregon does, too, but I don't think Oregon can prep for the kind of team Ohio State has evolved into under Jones.
We know Buckeyes offensive coordinator Tom Herman will take shots down the field to showcase Jones' arm strength, but will they make the most of those opportunities?
I also heard Brian Kelly say on "SVP & Russillo" that one team in this game has its leader on the field (Oregon and Mariota) and the other team has its leader on the sideline (Ohio State and Meyer). He likes the leader on the sideline more than the one on the field.
As I said, I am expecting a fantastic game. And lucky for us, it will be on the biggest stage the sport has ever seen.
Gimme Ohio State.
Pick: Ohio State 38, Oregon 32 (confidence: 9)

[h=3]Season records[/h]
Fallica: 43-40 ATS (51.8 percent)
Coughlin: 44-28-1 ATS (59.5 percent

Akillies · Jan 12, 2015

The point spread in Monday's College Football Playoff National Championship Presented By AT&T shrunk all last week, with influential money being placed on underdog Ohio State. But Oregon money showed up over the weekend.
The Ducks headed into game day as 6.5-point favorites over the Buckeyes at most Nevada sports books, capping a 10-day stretch that saw the line move significantly in both directions.
The game kicks off at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
[h=4]More from ESPN.com[/h]ESPN Chalk's Vegas Experts analyze the lines, make their ATS picks and offer prop bet advice for this Monday's College Football Playoff Championship between Oregon and Ohio State. Story

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ESPN college football experts Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin take a shot at picking the College Football Playoff title game between Oregon and Ohio State. Story

Oregon opened as a 7-point favorite on Jan. 2. Early last week, multiple sports books reported taking bets on Ohio State plus-7 from what was a described as a "respected group," causing the line to move off the key number. The line continued to fall during the week and bottomed out as low as minus-5, after Oregon wide receiver Darren Carrington was suspended for the game.
But the line was headed back up over the weekend. The Westgate SuperBook, MGM, CG Technology and William Hill all were back to Oregon minus-6.5 on Sunday night. And some believe the line might get all they back to seven on game day.
"I'm hearing rumors that someone else is on Oregon in this game," Superbook head oddsmaker Ed Salmons said. "I'm not going to be surprised if this line doesn't push up to minus-7."
When asked, Salmons said that "someone" is a professional bettor, but did not name names.
Despite the early action on Ohio State, multiple books reported Sunday having more money on Oregon.
As of Sunday night at the William Hill sports book, 78 percent of all bets and 72 percent of all money wagered was on the Ducks.
The MGM was also heavy on the Oregon side, with the Ducks attracting more money than the Buckeyes by about a 3-to-2 ratio as of Sunday night, according to vice president of race and sports Jay Rood.
"We taken more limits bets on Ohio State," Rood said. "I'd definitely characterize Ohio State as the sharp side. If the money comes back on Oregon, like I think it might, we'll be back at 7."
The game is being bet much like a Super Bowl, the books said, with bettors laying the points with the favored Ducks and backing the underdog Buckeyes on the money line. The best-case scenario for the books is for Oregon to win but not cover the spread.
Oregon was around minus-210 on the money line Monday, meaning a bettor would have to wager $210 to win $100 on the Ducks winning straight-up. An Ohio State straight-up upset was paying around plus-$185. Stratosphere sports book manager Hugh Citron said his shop had taken 15 bets on the Ohio State money line for every one on the Ducks.
An Oregon victory also would help the books in their futures market, the odds to win the national championship.
More bets were placed on Ohio State to win the national championship than any other team at the SuperBook. The Buckeyes opened at 12-1 to win the first College Football Playoff at the SuperBook, but dropped down to 50-1 after quarterback Braxton Miller was ruled out for the season in August with an injury. Ohio State fell to 100-1 after a September loss to Virginia Tech at William Hill. William Hill took one $25 bet on the Buckeyes at 25-1.
Caesars Entertainment's books also were rooting for Oregon for their futures book.
"We are just sweating the futures," said David Pemberton, sports book director for Caesars. "It's a big loss if Ohio State wins and a big win if Oregon wins."
The over/under total was sitting at 74.5, the highest ever for a national championship game. The over/under for Oregon's national championship appearance against Auburn in 2011 was also in the 70s.
"Right now, there's a notch more money on the under," Salmons said Sunday night. "But that will change tomorrow."
Twelve of Ohio State's 14 games have gone over the total, averaging 62.9 points per game.
This will be the third straight game the Buckeyes have been underdogs. Ohio State coach Urban Meyer has been an underdog 23 times in his career. He's won 15 of those games straight-up. Meyer's teams are 34-9 against the spread with more than a week to prepare.
Oregon has covered the spread in nine straight games