Thats right down by 5pts. Hey if you go for a three make it. Then you foul and hope they only make one. Now you got a one possession game. You take the ball and hit a three then your tied. How much easier can it get. Plus that is the only way to go with only 7 secs. Oh I think coaching has alot to do with it. Still, you should of jumped on Oregon in the second half after being down by so much at the Hf, only obvious that they have the advantage in the second half, because they are at home and on National TV.
I think that is why, I feel that using only Mathematical systems like you said you use does not completely tell the whole story and you could miss out on certain situations, like emotions for one, coaching for two, and the refs BS calls for three.
You go by conferences, I think to help you out, you should stop looking at just this. Go to my thread cause I answer your post with more information of what I look at in this time of the year and it could help you out. Gl and Aloha CC,