Opinions wanted on 1 inning baseball lines

[Railbird]

Me and a freind went into the Anh-La game tonight and we were making prop bets all night. Here are some lines. Tell me if I made any mistakes.


Pitches thrown for half inning- 16.5
Will a man reach 2 nd base this 1/2 inning- yes -150 No +130

Will a man reach 3rd this 1/2 inning No -130
Yes +110


When there is a man on 2nd and 2outs will the team batting score in this inning or there next at bats Yes -130
No +110


With 1 out and a 1-2 count on the current hitter a will the team batting get another hit in the 1/2 inning Yes +110
No -130

Will there be a run scored in the next 1.5 innings Yes -135
No +115


Obvious it varies from situation to situation, but do you see any obvious mistakes in the above lines?

 

[Dante]

cool props rail...what book has these ?

 

[Railbird]

I was just making them off the top of my head tonight, my buddy and I were taking turn making prop lines, I had the best of it all night, he was making horrible lines and getting lucky and still beat me for 300. We were playing 100 a shot.

Another line I forgot is will


Troy glaus hit the ball to the left side of 2nd base in this at bat, walk or K is part of the no.

Yes -125
No +105

 

[WildBill]

Most of them look off, but obviously are very team and pitcher dependent. For this particular game I would have bet all night that a guy wouldn't reach 2nd. That one is a gimme in most situations, pitchers tend to have breezy innings or bad ones so I am happy to get plus odds on a guy having an easy inning. Even if he gives up a walk or single I still have a chance to win that one. Same principle applies to the first question, although that one seems a lot more in line with reality. But if a guy gets them out 1-2-3 I am going to win that bet almost every time and I have ways to win it even if he gives up a run or two, but that is one I definitely have to set based on the pitcher. Strikeout guys are going to go over that one quite a bit, while control pitchers will get under that number 70% of the time I would guess.

The 3rd and 4th ones are hard to say, depends heavily on what part of the lineup you are in. That analysis is obvious, if its the bottom of the order or the 3-4-5 guys coming up makes a huge difference and so does the pitchers involved.

The last one is also pitcher and team dependent, not to mention game situation, but most of the time your number is pretty good. Games average about a run an inning, but the clusters of runs makes it difficult to expect that. So I think its a fair line.

 

[docdekay]

No way any book deals these ridiculous lines at 20c a pop. Thats for starters.

 

[Dante]

I wish books had these....I think it would be fun to play them

 

[UncleButternutts]

I like the pitches thrown prop. The rest, too much thought process for anyone who likes to drink..

 

[lander]

Pitches thrown for half inning- 16.5

Seems a bit high in a Dodgers game.
Was this the total for Ana or LA?

Interesting, because Ishii walks alot of guys ...

Cool lines Rail.

 

[Railbird]

Also do a lot of attendance betting on individual games, 3 game homestand, can you come within 2000 of announced attendance before game time and within 1000 in the 3rd inninngs.

Over under on pitches thrown by pitcher, will certain pitcher be used in game, time of game,

 

[WildBill]

Man do you ever go to a game just to enjoy it???

There were places that did this type of betting, the Megasports operation that went broke. Turned out the stiffs that did no thinking weren't that interested (too much thinking as someone said) and the smart guys were charting everything. They never let you bet much, which still didn't hold down their losses that much. They thought they could beat everyone with their smart computer, which judged the way people were betting and set lines accordingly. What they didn't account for is some things get quite obvious and a strong bookmaker is needed to set lines for those spots. For example if the bases are loaded and the count is 3-2 and the game is tied, the true odds on the next pitch being a strike is sky high and the computer couldn't react fast enough to the torrent of smart bettors.

 

[UncleButternutts]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Turned out the stiffs that did no thinking weren't that interested (too much thinking as someone said) <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Wtf?!?! You calling me a stiff you assmonkey?

 

[Railbird]

Wildbill,


This is more geared for mano e mano type betting, with guys taking turns making the lines. Sort of like a heads up poker match. both guys start with a dime, and play 200 a shot until someone goes broke.


It seems like guys make 2nd base in atleast half there at bats, even in games like tonights.