OPINIONS ON VALUE PLAY

[vega007+]

Conference to Win the 2003 Stanley Cup
06/01/03 2 Western Conference -300
19:05 ET Eastern Conference +220

Is this a value play? Taking EC at +220 and then hoping for a scalp when the EC team is favoured come June. Of course, Carolina were a +500 fave going into Game 1 last year against Detroit.


Opinions would be much appreciated.

 

no. why take +220 when youve got seven months for them to hold your cash? the straddle alone should let you know there is no value there.

remember that when it comes to futures not only does NO ONE gives anything away any more - they dont even offer FAIR PRICES!!

roxy roxborough said that a fair future book for BOTH book and customers had a hold of between 20% and 30%. good luck finding ONE book (certainly none in LV) with a hold of LESS than 30%.

bb

 

[vega007+]

Thanks alot bb.I greatly appreciate a veteran like yourself looking out for young know it alls like me.

 

you know, there was a reason why i was asked to participate in this forum, so my advice to you would be to pay attention and skip the wise-ass answers. i could have been a wise guy too and said gee anyone asking such a ridiculous question must know squat about betting, but no, i responded as best i could under the circumstances, hoping it would help.

bb

 

[vega007+]

Bobby, my apologies. You took that ENTIRELY the wrong way buddy. I was actually being most sincere, I swear on my mothers grave. It's guys like you who I can learn from. It's guys like you I hope to one day emulate. I really can't tell you just how much I appreciate your participation in this forum, I know you have lots of better things to do with your time. But trust me, I was being most sincere. GL with your plays buddy, maybe one day I'll buy you dinner when I make my arrival in Vegas. Take care.

 

bobby, with all due respect here, and I am NOT taking any sides here, and I'm sure 96% of the people that read this thread will agree with me.

I did NOT see any sarcasm in Vega's response to you. When I first read your response, I was wondering to myself why you are being so edgy. I can assure you that Vega was NOT being sarcastic with you, trust me. I know the guy by now, and he can be sarcastic at times, but this time, I believe you jumped the gun a little too soon. He really did mean it in a good way. The kid looks up to you.

Now if you want the kid to look up to you even more, you better start improving that dismal start by you in the contest. Had you been +9.75 units instead, you would be his childhood hero. It would be a toss up between you and the Great One, Wayne Gretzky as his all time hero.

But you gotta start picking winners man. Stop with those trend doktor info and start picking winnners. And BTW, why do you always spell doctor with a K. (doktor) it's spelled with a C. And last question, who is Herr Hockeymeister. Who's named Herr? Is that some broads name? Thanks.

 

[vega007+]

sick, don't make fun of me. My childhood hero was NOT Wayne Gretzky. It was a drug addicted dwarf known as Theo Fleury.

How can you say Gretzky could be my all time fave. I live in Calgary. Get your head together and stop making fun of my main man Bobby.

Bobby, I seriously was NOT being sarcastic man. I hope you're not pissed at me. I really DO look up to you, a bit.

 

That's the thanks I get for trying to help you. I figured you were a kid when Gretzky was with the Oilers over in Alberta, which is where you're from, and with all the Battle of Alberta series, you must have got a lot of coverage there, and seeing the Great one is the best ever and playing in your province. I was not being funny. I really did think you were not being sarcastic with good ol Robert. Next time, I will shut up and not even stick up for you. My mistake.

 

[vega007+]

sick, you know I was just joking. I don't like Wayne at all. He is a pussy, in my humble opinion. Mario outclasses him in every way, I think. Thanks for sticking up for me, btw. I was just joking. And you know I was serious when I was talking to bb.

 

i apologize - guess i was just being paranoid again. but its tough for me to read some of these posts - imagine a guy saying he laid pk-320 on a game and acutally bragging about it?? imagine a day with ten games on a schedule and the best a handicapper can come up with is a -.5-70 play?? it is VERY tough for me to maintain here.

and note to s.g.: my record is pretty decent thus far. if you had access to my e-mail list you would know that...

herr hockeymeister is my nickname had for 13 years. using doktor w/k is german. herr means mister. and the trend doktor is a fun page which occassionally does have valuable info and believe it or not some people over the years enjoy and look forward to reading.

bb