Opening Games Heads Up

[SoonerBS]

Guys, you can add to this thread, but as I am studying teams right now, there are some opening games thoughts that keep coming out. Most of them I am suppressing at the moment, but some I feel fairly strong about at the moment and will likely add to this thread as the Summer goes along and as more info comes into light.

On Thursday night, Sept. 3rd, North Texas goes to play at Ball State. Guys, Ball State's offense is completely devastated. Not only did they lose their star QB, but they also lost most of their offensive line. That leaves them having to find a starting QB for this season and totally rebuilding a new offensive line. That's not a good combination at all. On top of that, they have a new defensive coordinator and he is changing their scheme from a 3-4 to a 4-3. Word coming out of Spring is that the defense is not catching on as well as they would like.

I am still trying to find info on North Texas this Spring and I expect it to come out in full within a couple of weeks, BUT, looking at what they have coming back, it looks like they should be very experienced and they will be in the second year of Dodge's system and leadership. After NT went 1-11 last year and Ball State went 12-2, I expect us to catch a good line on North Texas going on the road. NT's schedule actually looks very manageable this year with only a game against Alabama the third game of the season as an "impossible" game on their schedule. They have reason to be very excited about this season's schedule for a Sun Belt team.

Once I find out more on NT's team info, I'll post some more on this game. For now, keep your ears open and your eyes peeled for a possible money making venture.

 

[SoonerBS]

By the way, ESPN is accumulating their Spring Team wrap-ups so there is some current, clear info on returning starters and some info on depth. This will suffice to give us some info to go off of until Phil Steele's magazine comes out. There are some other sites putting out some opinions on Spring data and how it relates to the upcoming season as well. I am currently in progress of reading and digesting all this info as I am sure all you guys are doing, ON TOP of what has been going on since 2008 season ended. I want to post an outlook on all the conferences and each individual team like I did last season. It is great way for me personally to get an unadulterated view at how games and situations should play out based upon each teams preseason outlook. These should be coming out after Phil Steele's magazine comes out in June. They were surprisingly accurate last year, so I hope to repeat the process in hopes of finding some insight to the 2009 season.

 

[GoSooners]

BS..I can't wait for Phill Steele's rag to come out so I can have all of this info right in front of me instead of having to individually look up all of these teams. As for North Texas, I'm not sold at all on Todd Dodge. They actually took a step back in his second year. And I don't like that their defense wasn't any better at the end of the season as it was at the beginning. The number will really have to be right for me to bet on this team. The good news for them this season is almost all of their starters are back. The bad news for them is almost all of their starters are back...LOL..They did do a halfway decent job of scoring points with a new QB at the helm. So that part of it should help them this year. It's just a matter of Todd Dodge adjusting to coaching the college game as opposed to the highschool game. So far it's been a slow adjustement.

 

[goblue12]

That's a risky play no matter what the line is. Ball State has Kelly Page playing QB for them next year. He is a 3-star kid who committed to Oregon before Masoli, Harper, and Thomas followed suit and made a wise decision by switching his verbal to the Cardinals.

They'll be fine at QB plus practically all of their top pass catchers and MiQuale Lewis are coming back. Love is gone, but they played most of the season without him anyway and they were already starting 2 TE's to begin with, so Hill won't be that big of a loss.

Seems like a no play for me knowing that UNT couldn't stop a D-III school if their life depended on it. It must be disheartening playing offense at UNT knowing that your defense will never bail you out.

 

[russ1945]

you got that right

That's a risky play no matter what the line is. Ball State has Kelly Page playing QB for them next year. He is a 3-star kid who committed to Oregon before Masoli, Harper, and Thomas followed suit and made a wise decision by switching his verbal to the Cardinals.

They'll be fine at QB plus practically all of their top pass catchers and MiQuale Lewis are coming back. Love is gone, but they played most of the season without him anyway and they were already starting 2 TE's to begin with, so Hill won't be that big of a loss.

Seems like a no play for me knowing that UNT couldn't stop a D-III school if their life depended on it. It must be disheartening playing offense at UNT knowing that your defense will never bail you out.

The good thing is N. Texas returns 9 on defense. The bad thing is they were 105th in rushing defense, 115th in passing defense and 119th (yes that would be last because they do not officially count W. Kentucky yet).
Yes they gave up 47.6ppg LY. Oh yes they won only one game LY and what a coincidence that was against W. Kenrucky). I will be watching this team like a hawk, from afar.

 

[SoonerBS]

That's a risky play no matter what the line is. Ball State has Kelly Page playing QB for them next year. He is a 3-star kid who committed to Oregon before Masoli, Harper, and Thomas followed suit and made a wise decision by switching his verbal to the Cardinals.

They'll be fine at QB plus practically all of their top pass catchers and MiQuale Lewis are coming back. Love is gone, but they played most of the season without him anyway and they were already starting 2 TE's to begin with, so Hill won't be that big of a loss.

Seems like a no play for me knowing that UNT couldn't stop a D-III school if their life depended on it. It must be disheartening playing offense at UNT knowing that your defense will never bail you out.

No matter how good the QB is going to be, he will be running from the defense with a totally new offensive line. New QBs and new offensive lines don't mesh well in the first season. I don't think Ball State will score as easily against NT as NT will score against Ball State.

I couldn't find a lot of info on NT, so I'm still trying to put the picture together for them, but I don't think Ball State will be anything close to what they were last season.

 

[trentmoney]

No matter how good the QB is going to be, he will be running from the defense with a totally new offensive line. New QBs and new offensive lines don't mesh well in the first season. I don't think Ball State will score as easily against NT as NT will score against Ball State.

I couldn't find a lot of info on NT, so I'm still trying to put the picture together for them, but I don't think Ball State will be anything close to what they were last season.

How many points are we talking??
What price are you offering or would you want to be offered?
I really can't comment on a side without a spread...

Conceptually there are things to like, but without a line there's no concept of value. I have a number in my head that would make me look into this, but any lower and i wouldn't waste my time.
what number are you thinking?

 

[Flsunman]

No matter how good the QB is going to be, he will be running from the defense with a totally new offensive line. New QBs and new offensive lines don't mesh well in the first season. I don't think Ball State will score as easily against NT as NT will score against Ball State.

I couldn't find a lot of info on NT, so I'm still trying to put the picture together for them, but I don't think Ball State will be anything close to what they were last season.

Living 30 min south of Denton I can tell you the defense will be improved, how much is anyone's guess.

For what it's worth, the offense is looking damn good according to sports talk radio..

 

[SoonerBS]

Living 30 min south of Denton I can tell you the defense will be improved, how much is anyone's guess.

For what it's worth, the offense is looking damn good according to sports talk radio..

I'd appreciate whatever info you receive on this team as the Sunbelt teams don't get much national press.

 

[SoonerBS]

How many points are we talking??
What price are you offering or would you want to be offered?
I really can't comment on a side without a spread...

Conceptually there are things to like, but without a line there's no concept of value. I have a number in my head that would make me look into this, but any lower and i wouldn't waste my time.
what number are you thinking?

I don't know what line I will need to jump, Trent, I still need to get more info on NT, but the early info on Ball State does not look good for them. And, since they were an ATM machine last season, some people will bet them up at the first of the season this year. Hopefully with the way NT played their season last year, we will get a good dog line here of +14 or more.

 

[GoSooners]

I don't know what line I will need to jump, Trent, I still need to get more info on NT, but the early info on Ball State does not look good for them. And, since they were an ATM machine last season, some people will bet them up at the first of the season this year. Hopefully with the way NT played their season last year, we will get a good dog line here of +14 or more.

The linesmakers know what Ball State lost. I'm betting the line will be somewhere around -11. I'm just not sure if w're going to get that much of a bargain in a game like this. I could be wrong. We'll see.

A game that I'll seriously be looking at is Alabama vs Va Tech in the Georgia Dome. Something tells me this could be a repeat of last year. Bama was 4 point dogs to an overrated Clemson team and getting no respect. And they took it to Clemson. I actually think the line could be a bit higher this year. Maybe as high as Va Tech -6. If I know Saban, he's ready to kick some ass and take numbers after their Sugar Bowl fiasco. They're liable to come in there pretty damned fired up. Plus Bama will have the familiarity of the dome stadium on their side. And should have a pretty sizeable SEC crowd in there. Just a thought. But I'll need to get a reasonable number for this game. At least +4 or more.

 

[SoonerBS]

What is the line going to be on Ole Miss in their road opener against Memphis? Mississippi can probably name their score in that game and I'm jumping on anything less than 3 TDs. I don't think Memphis will be able to score more than one or two TDs and I know Mississippi will score at least 5 and probably more.

 

[SoonerBS]

This next season could be the year to start fading the Rice Owls again for some easy money. Almost all their playmakers off that offense of last season are gone, including their QB. AND, we all know the defense was not anything special allowing nearly 40 points a game. They go on the road to play their opener against UAB -- a team that looks to be much improved. I love fading green QBs going on the first road game of their career. Whenever it also happens to be the season opener, that is even more a plus . . . . .

 

[SoonerBS]

Nebraska may be able to name their score against Florida Atlantic in their opener. FAU has a lot to be desired on defense and Nebraska's offense should really shine this year. I expect a long line on this game though . . . . .

 

[SoonerBS]

Troy looks like a good bet on the road against Bowling green. Bowling green is looking to run more this season and Troy's defensive line is one of the best they have had in some time. Meanwhile, Troy's weak spot is their offensive line, but Bowling Green will be starting a completely green defensive line this year that is still adjusting to completely new defensive schemes.

 

[GoSooners]

Nebraska may be able to name their score against Florida Atlantic in their opener. FAU has a lot to be desired on defense and Nebraska's offense should really shine this year. I expect a long line on this game though . . . . .

BS..I like Nebraska at anything less than -28. FAU has proved over and over the last few years that they don't play well in the big stadiums. Combine that with Russell Smith no longer being there and an improved Nebraska defense and we have a game where the Huskers won't have to score THAT many points to cover. I'm thinking something like a 38-7 game.

 

[SoonerBS]

BS..I like Nebraska at anything less than -28. FAU has proved over and over the last few years that they don't play well in the big stadiums. Combine that with Russell Smith no longer being there and an improved Nebraska defense and we have a game where the Huskers won't have to score THAT many points to cover. I'm thinking something like a 38-7 game.

I agree, GS.

I really like ESPN's Spring wrap-ups. They were really good last year at hitting teams' weaknesses and strong points. Hell, I get tired of just accumulating team and player info. This time of the year and through the Summer, I like to start "applying" what we learn to actual upcoming games. A lot of what I am doing in this thread is "thinking off the cuff," but it's useful to me. Helped me go 13-3 in the first week last season.

 

[GoSooners]

I hated them last season with just 5/5 returning on both sides with a new coach. But I really like Texas A&M ATS this year. This team has and will get absolutely no publicity and will be flying under the radar. I think we'll get good value with them in their opener against New Mexixo. Anything less than 17 points in that game and I think we'll be getting good value. I'm thinking they'll set the line at around 14 or 15. By the way, the Aggies could get on a little bit of a roll with their first 3 games played at home against NM, Utah St. and UAB. Then they get Arkansas in Dallas. They could potentially be 4-0 before they meet OSU at home. I expect an improved offense. But I think the main thing with Sherman is seeing all of those spread offenses run down the field on his Aggies last year was probably a little bit of a shock to him in his first season after coming from the pros. I'm thinking he'll be a little better prepared for them this time aorund. Plus 7 home games doesn't hurt. I like em.

 

[GoSooners]

I'm also kind of liking Baylor against Wake Forest if I can get the right number. The only problem with this is it might be a little too obvious of a game with the anticipated improvement of Baylor and Wake losing a ton of players on defense. Still, getting anything at Baylor +6 or over will be a good value imo.

 

[GoSooners]

Missouri vs Illinois.....This is a game where I'm hoping Mizzou's recent success carries over and I get a good number with Illinois. My guess is the line will be around Illinois -2.5. At least this is what I'm hoping for. I look for Illinois to win by 10+. The only problem here is this is a rivalry game. So it could be a little closer than I think. But I still like Illinois. This will be one of the few games where Zook isn't outmatched in the coaching department.