Open Question for the board (Please Help)

[HoosierDaddy]

If you don't want to give away any "secrets" I understand, but I have to ask.

What methods do you use to handicap college basketball games?

I have been doing this for years and have hit right at 60% for my career and I have had bad runs before (we all do), but never anything near this bad.

I am 30-45-2 YTD (11-28-2 Run). I have lost at least 10 games by a bucket or less. It's like I am cursed or something.

I know you will say narrow down my games, but I will never get over 50% playing 1-2 games a night. I was hoping to get 15-20 games over .500 and then get conservative and play 2-4 a night to protect my % and winnings, but now that's out the freaking window.

Do you use stats, trends, line moves, power ratings?

I have a great College Basketball book that I sue as a tool (by Trace Fields). It has things like play against a team off a holiday tourney (a lot of good that did me tonight with USC), returning starters, etc.

I know a lot of these teams pretty well and I read local papers constantly when I have free time. I don't understand why every selection I make turns to sh1t.

Any assistance you can give me would be greatly appreciated. This is my cry for help if you will. I can't take this long losing streak anymore. I feel like I am going crazy. I am losing money, but that's definitely not the issue. I have enough for what I need. My ego is bruised big time. I don't want to be a laughingstock on this board anymore. Every other poster is winning and I am losing.

I need some serious guidance. Please any knowledge you can give, I would appreciate it.

Thanks,

HD

 

[sportsbet]

Don't sweat it man...it's too early in the NCAA hoops season for that. I think just about all of us here had USC to cover tonight. They just got blitzed right out of the building.

I use a combination of stats, trends and formulas to come up with the teams that have the best chance of covering the spread. I will say in college hoops it's tough because there are just so many teams to cover. I'm barely over .500 as it is here (11-8 after the SC bomb). I usually take a day or two during the week to retool and reanalyze the way I am breaking down games to see what I did wrong the night before with the losses. It's a long season and there are always things to look for when we're wrong.

Good luck the rest of the way...it can turn around just as easily as it goes south.

sb

 

[Budworth22]

You're smarter than you think

I have been doing this for years and have hit right at 60% for my career and I have had bad runs before

You're 60% career. You have to be doin something right. I think now is the time for some sports quotes. "Dance With what Brung ya"_Darryl Royal

Do what you know to work. What if on the other side of this streak is an equally long hot streak. For right now do a few things.
1. Look at every play, and make sure there is a really good reason you are playing it
2. If it loses, see if it was because you capped it wrong, or if it was just within the normal statistical range.

I have lost at least 10 games by a bucket or less. It's like I am cursed or something

. Or are you consistently missing some aspect?
C'mon now, cursed? Hoosier, just do what you do, and it will turn around. It's harder to hit 40% than it is 61%. You've had bad luck, and luck as we all come to realize is just numbers. They'll swing ur way, stick with it, and

#3. DON'T CHASE. KEEP YOUR PLAYS AT A % THAT YOU NORMALLY USE. THIS IS WHERE WE ALL MESS UP SOMETIMES. I'll continue to follow you, because someone told me you were a top 5 college cap on here, and when you turn this ship around I'll be there for the smooth sailing. Stick with how you've done it in the past, and read a little more. Find that one peice of info from the local newspaper. It's what we did with LLWS, and you know it works for CBB too.
GL Tommorow, Monday's kick ass
Bud

 

[CollegeLine]

I know you will say narrow down my games, but I will never get over 50% playing 1-2 games a night. I was hoping to get 15-20 games over .500 and then get conservative and play 2-4 a night to protect my % and winnings, but now that's out the freaking window.

HD

Never say never. Playing 1-2 games is the way to go.
Imagine this scenario:
You play 15 games tomorrow, and you win all 15. You'll get back to .500.
And the next thing you know, you are back with 15 more plays the next day.
You getgreedy and forget what it feels like to be down big money.
You lose 10 of 15, but you say 'no big deal, I can win 15 tomorrow, been there, done that'. Well, guess what, you can not ! No one can !
It is a magical circle and the main reason why Vegas will be that beatifull for years to come.

Conclusion: Pick a game or two every day. Only good things can happen that way. And what's even more important, once you hit a 6-7 games winning streak, while picking a game or two a day, you'll appreciate more the work you are doing. 75 plays YTD is way to many, this early in the season.

Just my 2 cents.

Good luck.

 

[truelyhandicapping]

I HAVE TO AGREE that having 75 plays already this early in the season is way to much. no one can handicapp that many games this early and know what is going with all these teams.


but, in saying that

last year i posted here and i bet and posted 85% of the games on the board each day in hoops.

my goal was to hit 59%, which i did. you figure out the numbers, but at that % and the number of games i played, i made more money than someone who plays 3 or 4 games a night and hits 66%, which no one really does for an entire season.

in one week at 59% playing 200 games roughly--118 wins; 82 losses (juice of 8.2 games, would of paid +28 games.

if you bet 4 games a day times 7 days giving you 28 games total, you would have to be 100%. not happening. even if yo bet 10 games a day times 7 days, giving you 70 games a week, you would have to hit 70% to get +28 games, then would still have to pay juice.


been argueing with players here for a year now, if yo do the math, my way is the best way.


problem is, you have to have a system that allows you to win at that 59%, or close to it.

work on it. it took me 10 years, but has paid off rather nicely.

call me crazy, but go back to my old posts last year.


best of luck

 

[RobFunk]

get a subsciption to stat fox. it's that simple

 

[HoosierDaddy]

Thanks for all the feedback guys. I really appreciate it.

I will definitely play less plays through the week with lesser games. I will try to only do 2-4 daily, maybe a couple more on Saturday and Wednesday (the 2 big card days). I actually have a better record than I thought. There were a couple I didn't play, but posted.

I figure I have to get some breaks at some point.

Thanks again,

HD

 

[mopicks]

Hang in

Hoosier,

I also am in the hole. But I started out last season even worse and still made a good profit in the end.

The guys here have given good advice.
Patience is key. One play at a time.
Aside from that:

Using stats for NCAA can be deceiving because the level of competition varies widely in college hoops.

Always check injury reports.

I am wary of the steam in college, not so in NFL.

It is a numbers game. Similar to Blackjack, there will be streaks either way.

Hang in, it's all good.


MO

 

[DJ6593]

HD

I tend to disagree with those that feel you must post only a very few games each night in order to post victories. You may want to tighten your parameters as to what constitutes a play and what doesn't qualify, but play what the board has to offer on a given night.

I have had nights where my third best play is stronger the the best play from the previous night. Set your parameters. if there are no games on a given night, pass. If there are eight plays that qualify, play them.

BOL

ncaahoopster