Open Discussion: Pinnacle's Bookmaking Model, Opinions and Questions

[WalkofLife]

Guys, it's the time of the year when only the hard-core players are still in front of the screen grinding them pebbles out. MLB is a market that allows a lot of middling/scalping nad I would like to have these sharpees voice their opinions on Pinny's bookmaking model.

The other day I was discussing the Pinnacle model with Bill Dozer, the never-ending myth of Pinny's leans and how they manage to deal an 8 cent line in a sport such as MLB.

We got a theory we would like to discuss with you guys and we will enormously appreciate your input. I'd personally like to hear from posters such as Judge Wapner, DickyW (if he finds the time to type while Lander's wife blows him), DimePlayersOnly, Dogball, Darryl Parsosn, Phaedrus, Omnivorous Frog, Landerette and every other poster that has an opinion. PlayersOnly (Dr.69) can read and read only...

Bill Dozer will be here with us as well, being the number freak this kid is...

So, let me state what I think I believe the 8 centline allows Pinnacle lines to be outside the middle of the screen most of the times. The favorite is usually cheaper and the takeback is generally juicier.

I know a lot of players that have different input in these lines:

1. There's the sharp guy, that cracks the openers. Same guys that win day in and day out.

2. The cecils, landerettes and Dozers of the world, that like to chase the oh so precious steam.

3. And the guy that cracks his head trying to figure out what the fvck are Pinny's leans made out of.

This discussion is aimed to trying to persuade this last guy to stop chasing these "leans".

As far as I know, this is what Pinny does, everytime they take a bet. This is just product of my wild imagination and the collection of bits of information here and there; but first some facts that I deem worthy of a mention:

A. Pinnacle has at least 24 guys in their IT department. 24 brillaint motherfvckers that do nothing but seat on their fat asses and write code all day long. 24 guys.

B. Pinny is a data base-driven website. This data base makes Pinny work like a black box. This is why I think my blabbering makes sense:

I think, Pinny assigns every player with a value, a variable in a formula.

What are these values intended to do? I think they pretty much define who's sharp and who's not.

A sharp is a guy that manages to win over the long run. A data base is all about information. So I think this value is generated by historical percentages over long periods of time. A player, whose winning percentage is well over 55% (66% if you're Biff) will have a higer value assigned to his account than a player with a winning percentage of 27.8%, like this fvcking loser Lander.

So there are players that lay a nickel and the line moves a whole point and there are players that bet 2 dimes and the line remains static.

What does Pinny's database do? Well, as soon as Mr. Sharp lays his nickel, the data base calculates the odds of the sporting event landing on that specific number, based on how many games under similar circumstances fell right on this number, how many of these times actually represented a winning bet for Mr. Sharp and an infinity of factors that we all call handicappin', but that for a data base and the many applications run by it, is nothing else than data processing. This is nothing else that the instant calculation of odds (Probability Math). And all of this is done DYNAMICALLY

When Lander (= as sharp as a box) drops his 1 dime donations, the data base registrates that as risk absorbtion. When this square bets accumulate, they offer a cushin' for the risk taken by the other part of Pinnacle's model: betting. And they bet alright.

What's the betting-booking proportion that Pinny uses? I have no idea, if I had to make a guess I'd say it's something like 2:1.

If my theory is correct, the famous Pinny leans are not product of opinions but of data processing, reason why there's no realistic way to figure them out.

How can Pinnacle pull this off?

- The main man at the helm is a tremendous risk manager. Once a main head of the computer group, this guy could very well make his fortune in Wall Street, but that probably enjoys this a lot more. An odds whiz and a sharp bettor himself.

- The developers @ Pinny are some of the sharpest minds in this industry. I have personally talked to one of these kids, he's incredibly sharp at what he does... and he's in his mid-20's. These guys are experimenting with Artificial Intelligence... and I'm not talking about Dr.ContestsWhore either....

- The helm @ Pinny is all sharpness: naaaaaaaaaaasty, zzzzick geniouses.

What would be my biggest fear if I were Pinny? That the Data Base implodes.

Let me shut up and hear some of your opinions guys...

 

[TheGeneral+]

Add in the variable of overhead savings on phone fees as well when making a determination of their ability to take more risk.

 

[WalkofLife]

I agree, General. That is part of their model as well... I think they are maximizing the power of technology, but only as a tool well used.

 

[TheGeneral+]

BTW, Good post Walk.

 

[WalkofLife]

Thank you General... let me tell you which I think are the strongest points of my post:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> if he finds the time to type while Lander's wife blows him),<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>So I think this value is generated by historical percentages over long periods of time. A player, whose winning percentage is well over 55% (66% if you're Biff) will have a higer value assigned to his account than a player with a winning percentage of 27.8%, like this fvcking loser Lander. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> These guys are experimenting with Artificial Intelligence... and I'm not talking about Dr.ContestsWhore either....<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Good post indeed... I think I'm funny.

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Great thought provoking thread. I honestly thought it was more numbers based. I thought the movement was related to how far out they were on a position. If they balanced on the hit, why move? I feel doing a players sharpness is a reach. Players end up hot and cold, or choppy. Long term 95% of them lose. DRays +1.14 made it to Jays -1.04 at Pinny. Maybe something you can relate to. Are you saying all of the sharper players got on this? I am saying they took some early tremendous hits, then some more, and got way out. My number model says, throw out best number on the screen, get some Jays action vs. letting it ride. Seems like aggressive booking to me? Or conservative? They always seem to own me end of year so they must be doing something right...Best wishes...OF

Thanks for the thoughts

 

[wilheim]

Walk - what you are talking about is the internet/computerized version of "booking to faces". Nothing new at all in fact, booking to faces is old as sports betting itself. When a known wise or sharp player puts real money on a side at a specific number bookmakers don't want others doing the same, so naturally the number moves. The oppisite is true for known "Landers" whose bets are thrown "in the box" (ignored). The key to any lean is opening at the right number, one that will intice players to bet against the lean side. Most likely Pinnacle lets several very sharp bettors bet into their openers before they hang them, doing this automatically creates leans that their sharpest players like.


wil.

 

[oilman]

I think your making it much more complicated than it really is.

Why Pinnacle is successful:

1. Offer the best lines
2. Pay fast
3. Large online limits
3. Solid reputation
4. Fantastic marketing

Because of this almost every bettor, big or small, has an account with Pinnacle. Bettors keep higher balances with them than likely any book out there.

What does this do for Pinnacle?

1. Allows them to make money off postup funds through investments, interest or otherwise. (I know they don't admit to this but they probably do it anyway)

2. With the volume they get they are probably in the best position to get balanced action of any of the books out there. They really are the MARKET.

3. With every bettor in the free world betting into them, they have an inside connection to ALL the sharp money and they know how to use.

Simple put, it was a brilliant strategy. They found a way to corner the market in a business that is ultra competative by offering a product that no sane gambler could pass up and had all the tools to take advantage of it.

Think of it this way, if you could only have one book, which would it be? I'd guess 80 - 90 percent of knowledgeable bettors would say Pinnacle.

 

[WalkofLife]

OF:

Long term 95% of them lose...

I disagree there. I believe in the specific case of Pinny, their bookmaking model (reduced juice + arbitraging) is ideal for scalpers. I don't think a scalper is in reality a player, never mind LOSING players...

Wilheim;

You're the McDaddy, as usual. When it comes to face booking, I agree 100% with you, my man. But, would you consider the betting-out part of a bookmaking model? A more evolved one, where betting is just the second leg of an arbitraging process?

Oilman;

This disucussion intends to go a little further. We know they are great business men, but I'm trying to examine these tools they use, namely the REDUCED juice and why they have become the masters of risk managment...

DIMEPLAYERSONLY, JUDGE... your input wil be greatly appreciated. I assume Lander's wife still having a snack, so DickyW is "stuck" in her throat or something...

 

[oilman]

Sorry, after rereading you post I can see I got off on a tangent not really offering anything related to the topic.

As for the topic, I really think Pinnacle goes to balance action far more than they gamble. However I do believe they take the more IMPORTANT opinions they get and use them well for their own benefit, wether that means laying off elsewhere or adjusting their lines to get heavier action on acertain side.

To me they seem to have taken a more corporate approach in the last couple of years and I would bet that they try to balance rather than take risk.

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

The sides they are scalping lose. They welcome scalpers, and end up taking a high %, you still are laying the vig, of the scalpers money. Then factor in the squares they just bleed I think they make money off of 95% of their players. But that other 5%, the real money, that is another story...I even got a 30% Bonus Play signing bonus from Pinny as a new account. Many moons ago. I watch them like a hawk, as they are usually sharpest. Props have went down the toilet. They are also dropping limits on certain high risk no balance spots. Sorry to be cynical, I do not buy the player profiling....Best Wishes...OF

 

[WalkofLife]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>They are also dropping limits on certain high risk no balance spots. Sorry to be cynical, I do not buy the player profiling<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

No, no... cynism is highly appreciated around here... please carry on.

The player's profile is more of a fact, I'd venture to say

 

[dimeplayersonly]

WALK..........PINNY = bookmaking at its finest??? pretty darn close.....imo they are taking what old school shops have done for years to the next level......

before the onset of computer wagering, shops could book sharps and squares like this.......

line #1......sharps

line #2.......squares

sharps were dealt a "sharp number".....squares a "square number"

real simple and very effective...

the modern shop (pinny) it seems has been able to improve this basic philosphy to the point where it can be applied to numerous betting situations and a much larger player base...using a number that gives the book an edge over both types of players...

what i find interesting is the fact they are successfull at increasing and decreasing max betting limits based (i assume) on previous data....in other words thats like having a crystal ball.........that my friends is stealing....lol

 

[WalkofLife]

Pure beauty, DPO...

Thanks for the schooling, once again...

 

[BillDozer]

Well...
Now that Walk is working 20 hours a day he will try to help unveil all the secrets...

Don't put anything past Pinnacle. If there is an edge to be gained they are going for it. They have room to be very aggressive with the grip they have on us but more importantly the other books.

Player profiling is definately done. I believe players are getting different lines AND different movement. Pinny knows what you want. They shade so quick you don't have time to worry about it.

Most people who watch their screen see them bait others in. For example they will move the line 2 cents at a time one way for 3 moves then 5 cents back. They brain **** you. You are in the heat of a half time thinking "oh no I am going to lose it" then after you put your bet in at what you thought was a slight retreat the line jumps back 8 cents and explodes into an easy scalp as books rush to follow.

 

[WalkofLife]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Most people who watch their screen see them bait others in. For example they will move the line 2 cents at a time one way for 3 moves then 5 cents back. They brain fvck you. You are in the heat of a half time thinking "oh no I am going to lose it" then after you put your bet in at what you thought was a slight retreat the line jumps back 8 cents and explodes into an easy scalp as books rush to follow. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Great post, Billster. I know it hurts to give away your stuff, thanks for sharing... you will share right?

 

[SportSavant]

I would tend to agree with those who say that it is simpler than it all appears...

it is simply heavy volume due to lower prices...no bonuses..no 1800 #'s...

Perhaps they do watch those with accounts who have lifetime positive balances...& perhaps this info is built into their technology? but I think it is simply trying to get equal action on both sides & collecting the vig with the tremendous volume they must have..

ANYONE KNOW HOW MANY ACTIVE ACCOUNTS PINNACLE HAS OR ANYONE CARE TO GUESS?

 

[wantitall4moi]

I have said it for as long as they have been in business. Theyr are set up for scalpers plain and simple.

When I was doing this full time I would win and lose there, I never thought their lines were any sharper, at least never saw the evidence.

They have the lowest number BOTH ways, so I am not sure how that makes them sharp?

They look to get gys to scalp, and when they have enough the way they need it they move the line and make that scalp unavailable that way, then they get the action the other way, and when that number gets to the cut off they move that number as well.

It isn't hard to figure out. If you have a bot that refreshes them too much they shut you down and it takes an act of Congress to get back up. SO you have to be careful on how often you refresh with them.

But Like I have also said, I make it pretty apparent when I am scalping considering 95% of my bets are always for the same amount, and only on those occasions I am taking a lead or see a number in town here that can be hit simulataneously will I stray from that amount.

Not to mention these guys aren't stupid I saw them 10 cents off a Canbet number one way givi8ng you a simultaneous nickle (since Canbet has higher spreads) I bet it for what I needed, and it was gone almost as soon as I refreshed. I don't think what I bet moved that number, and not sure how many other guys saw it at that time.

But in thinking all this I have to think Pin has had the better of it at least for a couple years. Because scalpers, pure scalpers aren't going to break them, and as long as they know what they need to compensate, then the 100-200 bux a scalper will get from them will be outwieghed for the most part by the losses he makes there with his losers.

I have been using them for abnout 3 years, and I have had alot of success scalping them. I am probably up on them, but have yet to verify it. But what I will say is that even if I am up on the scalping end. I know damn well I am way ahead of them with future plays.

That is the only area that I see where they make mistakes or are slow to move, or are just plain gambling.

And if that is a spot in their "system" that people should worry about them getting in trouble in is in that area.

I mean I can scalp like a mother and make maybe 25k or 30 with some real nice numbers, but obviously not all from them. But I took almost that much from them with the Marlins last year winning the NL pennant, and the thing is, I used another book to hedge my SF and Cubs bets, so they had to pay me on a bet I didn't even give them hedge money back on.

While from time to time I will come back and scalp them if they give me a nickle or six cents.

and like I say, it is obviouos what they want because they have NEVER once sent me an email or said anything to me when I request a pay out for betting both ways on them.

On that Marlins matter I am sure they wish they did get some of it back on the Cubs and Giants, but their lines sucked. That is why I think they were gambling somewhat, because they were late in moving the line and had to try and get some back on the take.

I try not to think about it too much. I just know that I bet with them free wheel and don't worry. When I miss a few there I just swap it off and send them some, but even when I win I always take some out, even though I know I will eventually be sending it back.

So in terms of being "sharp" most "sharp books" hate to be scalped from within, And most "sharp books" limit guys who win, and most "sharp books" won't hang the best number both ways.

So while offering value to scalpers, they at least keep their actioned equaled by getting guys to at least bet both sides.

 

[exilarch]

Great post! Very informative. One question, Walk. How can the book profile a player when they do not get ALL a player's action,only part of it. For example, a player losing all his scalps at pinny would be classified as a square at Pinny, when in reality,he is winning elsewhere.

 

[wilheim]

Books can only profile what play they get from any specific customer. For all intent and purpose a player losing all his scalps at one shop is a square at that shop, no matter how much he wins elsewhere. The bottom line at Pinnacle (like all books) is hold percentage. Book one million to a game (side only) and they are looking to hold 5 to 7 percent at best. With volume like Pinnacle does a 5% hold is excellent.


wil.