The bookies don't care about accurately predicting the outcome of the game. Sports books don't set out to set the odds of winning, they set out to equalize the bets on either side of a bet, both with spread odds (The Dolphins are 3.5 point underdogs vs. the 49ers) and with betting odds (The 49ers pay 3:2 if they beat the Dolphins). Many bettors will week in and week out bet on their favorite team. It doesn't matter which side you bet, to win or to lose, you cannot have an objective view of the game. You may talk yourself into believing you can view the point spread and the game objectively, but if you're a fan you have built-in biases that you may not even be aware of.
If the sports book do their job properly, it ends up paying out to the winning side almost exactly what it took in from the losing side[ that's their game] and all games that are posting not just one. Even if books get hammered in one week on a game, they will average out following weeks, not every body bets the same teams or amounts. Let me say this again because it is probably the most important thing I can tell you. The only reason you should ever bet on a game is if you feel you have an advantage over the bookie or casino.
How do they then make money? Well, that's why I said almost exactly. The sports book also put a percentage on every bet, the vig & juice could be higher with off shore betting. If you bet to many games in one week of NFL and lose,[ I hate saying that word/LOL], the vig & juice it will eat you up brother [I know I been there when I first starting betting sports], and all you doing in following weeks of bets is getting even on juice, that could hurt you. Remember you are only as strong as your bankroll and believe the books in vegas have a bigger one. That's where the sports book makes their money. I don,t personally bet off shore books, because I live Vegas and make my bets shopping around for spreads. The secret is patience and need to exercise self-control. My philosophy in betting is why I choose to play just betting one game at each week [Some exceptions applied Monday & Thursday Night games. I don't use trends such as "The Steelers are 13-2 in week number 7" (Do they actually know that week 7 is their week and gain confidence from it?) or "bet on home dogs from +2 to +4 if it's a weeknight MAC game" (the more narrow the point spread range is the more likely it is a random occurrence and not a true indicator of a real pattern).
The moral of my thread!!!! is that only suckers think they can predict the outcome of sporting events. And sports books know this even better than the guys betting the lines. So they've contrived a situation where they make money no matter who wins hedging on the results.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT
**Very good to you all RX members of NFL season on your bets and predictions.
**PS. A SPECIAL NOTE... One of best Theory's that I use is the ''Up-Down Theory ''suggests that teams that played poorly one week should be due for a regression the next, while a team that played above itself will come back down to earth. However, the market usually corrects the other way, assuming that a team that played poorly is a “bad team” and will be equally bad or even worse the next week while a team that won will continue to play well or improve. When a team coming off a statistically anomalous “bad” game goes up against a team that played over its head the week prior, then you have a classic Up-Down situation.
If the sports book do their job properly, it ends up paying out to the winning side almost exactly what it took in from the losing side[ that's their game] and all games that are posting not just one. Even if books get hammered in one week on a game, they will average out following weeks, not every body bets the same teams or amounts. Let me say this again because it is probably the most important thing I can tell you. The only reason you should ever bet on a game is if you feel you have an advantage over the bookie or casino.
How do they then make money? Well, that's why I said almost exactly. The sports book also put a percentage on every bet, the vig & juice could be higher with off shore betting. If you bet to many games in one week of NFL and lose,[ I hate saying that word/LOL], the vig & juice it will eat you up brother [I know I been there when I first starting betting sports], and all you doing in following weeks of bets is getting even on juice, that could hurt you. Remember you are only as strong as your bankroll and believe the books in vegas have a bigger one. That's where the sports book makes their money. I don,t personally bet off shore books, because I live Vegas and make my bets shopping around for spreads. The secret is patience and need to exercise self-control. My philosophy in betting is why I choose to play just betting one game at each week [Some exceptions applied Monday & Thursday Night games. I don't use trends such as "The Steelers are 13-2 in week number 7" (Do they actually know that week 7 is their week and gain confidence from it?) or "bet on home dogs from +2 to +4 if it's a weeknight MAC game" (the more narrow the point spread range is the more likely it is a random occurrence and not a true indicator of a real pattern).
The moral of my thread!!!! is that only suckers think they can predict the outcome of sporting events. And sports books know this even better than the guys betting the lines. So they've contrived a situation where they make money no matter who wins hedging on the results.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT
**Very good to you all RX members of NFL season on your bets and predictions.
**PS. A SPECIAL NOTE... One of best Theory's that I use is the ''Up-Down Theory ''suggests that teams that played poorly one week should be due for a regression the next, while a team that played above itself will come back down to earth. However, the market usually corrects the other way, assuming that a team that played poorly is a “bad team” and will be equally bad or even worse the next week while a team that won will continue to play well or improve. When a team coming off a statistically anomalous “bad” game goes up against a team that played over its head the week prior, then you have a classic Up-Down situation.
