One big bet this week...

[SECplayer]

One additional bet for Week 3

Alabama team total Over 46.5. -115

5 units.

Ive obviously been high on Ole Miss totals for the combination of Ole Miss’s great offense and their terrible defense. However, Alabama’s offense, though not as explosive as Ole Miss, is extremely efficient. I think they score at will. I think Bama team total over is a bit safer than overall total of 71 as I want to see Ole Miss offense score on a defense with a pulse before taking them in a total of 71. This Ole Miss defense gave up 41 to Southern Illinois. They actually gave up 38 at halftime. And the points were far from fluky. These were sustained 70 yard drives and balanced. Actually gashed Ole Miss through the air which is supposed to be the “better” part of their defense compared to their rush defense. Ole Miss won’t get off the field on 3rd down. Lastly, if Ole Miss’s offense does have some success, the drives will be very short (2 mins). Alabama offense will have a time of possession of well over 35 minutes in my opinion.

 

[fballgenius]

I bet Alabama -20 last Sunday when the line came out.

 

[xxthevillexx]

Agree with you on bama, best of luck

 

[pizza]

thanks
i like it

 

[SECplayer]

4-0.

+35 units.

 

[Saints2016]

Well done SEC!

 

[SECplayer]

Ole Miss team is getting fairly easy to read.


Bets are now sitting at 4-0. +35 units.

Week 1 - over was 67.5. Score of 47-27 so over hits by only 6.5 points. Texas Tech QB injured early. 6-7 field goals. Could’ve been a lot higher. Ole Miss offense looked fantastic. Of course Texas Tech defense is awful.

Week 2 - Over was only 65.5. Score of 76-41. Over hit by 51.5 points. Score was actually 38-35 at half with Southern Illinois leading at half. This was not a fluky score. Southern Illinois had 70 yard sustained drives on almost all drives. Again OM offense looked incredible but Southern Illinois defense didn’t have a pulse.

Week 3 - Bama -21. Score of 62-7. Bama covers by 41.

Week 4 - Bama Team Total over 46.5. Covers by 15.5. There will not be an easier two bets the rest of the year. Total was 70.5. A pretty remarkable total for a game involving an Alabama defense. We might benefit hereafter by not having an outrageous shootout of 76-35 (like the shootout previous week vs Southern Illinois) as we get some slightly more reasonable totals going forward. Alabama defense totally overwhelmed Ole Miss offense. I think we can greatly benefit on Ole Miss lines going forward. Ole Miss offense seems unstoppable and explosive and scores in 60 second drives on sub par defenses. Looking forward at schedules that would include Kent State and Louisiana Monroe. Maybe Arkansas. Alternatively Ole Miss offense can be stifled when overwhelmed by superior athletes. That would include LSU and Auburn for sure. Teams falling somewhere in the middle would be Vandy, South Carolina, A&M.

Really looking forward to taking advantage of those lines going forward.

 

[PeePee]

Well done

 

[Ballzie]

Nice

 

[mnvikings]

Bump

 

[TheShotDoctor]

Keep On Killin' It My Friend!!

Nice Discipline & Focus!



-All The Best-
--ShotDoc--

 

[SECplayer]

4-0. +35 units.

Week 4.

Two big bets this week - but not quite as big.

1. Kent State at Ole Miss Over 75. 5 units.

Again, most of the logic behind any Ole Miss total is explained in previous bets. Ole Miss runs a somewhat gimmicky (for lack of a better word) offense. Very few actual plays. The philosophy, at least on passing plays, is to run to open grass. Not a ton of strict defined actual routes being run by receivers. Fortunately Ole Miss has several freaks at WR to allow this incredibly simplistic offense to work. You’ve never seen as many fly routes as this team runs. And somehow the philosophy works perfectly but only when playing sub par teams with inferior athletes and depth. Better teams can shut it down with their equivalent or superior athletes or just good coaching as seen last week versus Bama who fits both molds I think Ole Miss offense rolls again in an attempt to help erase the 62-7 thrashing from last week.

Another running theme in this thread is just how bad Ole Miss defense is. Worse than you can imagine. And they lost another starting safety last week to an ACL. I think Kent State will score at least 27. I’d say that about literally any team playing Ole Miss. I believe their new coach is from Syracuse and likely learned a thing or two on scheming and game planning an offensive game plan (Dino Babers).


2. Kent State +29.5 at Ole Miss. +5 units

The logic here is basically exact same as the reason I took the Over as explained above. Kent State should score on Ole Miss atrocious defense.


Will watch first half closely and consider a second balf olay if the opportunity presents itself.

 

[JDub984]

Is the Alabama team total still a play today?

Thanks and GL on your action today

 

[tdibs]

Is the Alabama team total still a play today?

Thanks and GL on your action today

That was last week's play...look at the date on the post

 

[SouthernWiseguy]

is the alabama team total still a play today?

Thanks and gl on your action today

huh?

 

[SouthernWiseguy]

I have been following your plays each week great stuff! Just a question and I'm curious what do you show in your projection as the final score in this game? Again thank you so much for the valuable information!

 

[SECplayer]

I have been following your plays each week great stuff! Just a question and I'm curious what do you show in your projection as the final score in this game? Again thank you so much for the valuable information!

Thanks WiseGuy. I’d expect a 52-38 type score.

 

[SECplayer]

Week 4.

One more additional bet. Sorry for late notice.

Kent State team total over 23.5 (-120).

Reasoning explained in posts above.

 

[JDub984]

Sorry, I saw week 4 next to the write up and thought he was projecting ahead.

 

[SouthernWiseguy]

Sorry, I saw week 4 next to the write up and thought he was projecting ahead.

Sorry, I had thought I missed that one lol!