i been looking at this mia/sd game for better part of a hour, as i mentioned yesterday i really cant envision many games id be willing to lay more than a fg with sd simply because majority of their games are so tight till the end. not a knock on them at all they a tough scrappy group who have suffered some really tough injuries to a couple of their most important offensive weapons and their best corner early in the season. little surprised ppl willing to lay this number to the extent they taking on enough money to moved this all way up to 4.5 which is why i started looking so closely as i was thinking pass when it was less than 4..
off top the couple most concerning things from backing the phins point of view. fish have been at home for over a month and have only played 3 road games. that troublesome for a few reasons, 1st off that just a long time playing at home and now having to play out west, also mia has changed quite a bit since last time they were on the road and the way they playing now much more my type of road dog to back as ive always been a believer in run game and defense travel (another tough thing is mia 3 road games were incredibly ttough being sea, pats and bungals which was the thu night ripoff of week so tough to evaluate) . the issue for me here is its a big advantage when teams come down to south florida to face a physical run game in the heat so while we know the run game has looked excellent it has had that built in advantage for the last month. now they facing a stout chargers run defense who limited a really good titans rushing attack to a very low total. which brings me to my other major concern with the fish, both have played the titans and both got them at home. not only was that phins last loss while chargers took it to them but the way titans ran all over mia to the tune of 184 more rushing yards and sd out gained same titans team by 124! that is worrisome as this game is gonna be decided mainly by which team can impose their rushing attack and control the clock.
that the bad, the good. part of being able to be a physical run 1st team is the ability to convert 3rd downs to move chains and stay on the field. phins defense is tops in the league only allowing team to convert little under 31% on 3rd down and they have really vamped up the pass rush of late, pair that with fact chargers dont do a great job protecting rivers and when chargers forced to make big drive extending 3rd downs they gonna struggle. to continue that theme as phins oline gotten healthy and they started mauling ppl they have also kept tannehill virtually untouched leading to a leap of only converting 35%on the season but 45% during their 3 game winning streak. sd hasnt been getting any pressure and with way phins been protecting their qb i dont expect them to here either so when tannehill forced to throw he will have time to do so..
really all this is trying to say is i think these teams pretty damn close, chargers better offensively in the red zone which to be exped cause rivers a great qb with a all timer in gates and tannehill not so much. however phins defense much better in the red zone than the sd d. chargers run d is little better but phins oline and run game a little stronger. the advantages in rivers over tannehill i think are negated by phins top 5 pass rush against a poor pass protecting oline while phins protect their qb and chargers d doesnt generate pressure.. books dont give chargers 3 for their weak home field and neither do i, more like 1.5 so where line sits we saying chargers are a fg better than fish on a neutral? i like the chargers i just happen to like what the new head coach in mia has cooking in south beach as well an just dont think this should be more than a fg spread so ill happily take 4.5. i also think the total a little high but i hate unders in the new garbage nfl where this could play out all game as a physical tough game on pace for under through 3 qrts then one team screws around and gets up more than a score and all hell breaks lose and next thing you know it a freaking video game. dont think it will play out that way as i expect more like 23-20 type game that could go either way,,,
