On The September 2008 I-AA/FCS Gridiron

[EveryGamblersDream]

My original September I-AA/FCS thread was lost in the database crash. So I am restarting it & including everything that was previously posted. If for any reason you can't access the thread here, it will be at the usual forums most know about as well as in the AGS Lounge on Any Given Saturday. Now let me start with the previous data:

Thursday:

Florida A&M +11 -120

==========

Saturday:

Eastern Illinois +28 -120

Northern Colorado +43 -120

Lehigh -20 -120

Georgetown +10 -120

Holy Cross +17 -120

Monmouth +14 -120

Robert Morris +7 -120

Army +14 -120

Furman +24 -120

Charleston Southern +21 -120

Stony Brook +8 -120

The Citadel +30 -120

Sacramento State +24 -120

Eastern Washington +18 -120

Tennessee Tech +35 -120

Jacksonville +50 -120

Richmond +17 -120

Alabama State +9 -120

South Dakota +34 -120

Idaho State +7 -120

Western Carolina +40 -120

Norfolk State +47 -120

Morgan State +14 -120

William & Mary +17 -120

Austin Peay +33 -120

Duquense +7 -120

Eastern Kentucky +6.5 -120

Marist +30 -120

Southeast Missouri State +50 -120

Alabama A&M +17 -120

Murray State +40 -120

Baylor -15 -120

Coastal Carolina -5 -120

Southeastern Louisiana +29.5 -120

Texas Southern +45 -120

UC Davis -5 -120

South Dakota State +27.5 -120

Stephen F. Austin +44 -120

Southern University +7 -120

Grambling -17 -120

Montana State +23 -120

SMU -7.5 -120

Montana -3 -120

Weber State +24

=========

Season:

17-06-00 74% +1010 (Based on to win $100 per selection for record purposes only)

Breakdown:

August: 17-06-00 74% +1010

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

09/04/08 Recap:

01-00-00 +100 (Based on to win $100 per selection for record purposes only)

==============

Season:

18-06-00 75% +1110 (Based on to win $100 per selection for record purposes only)


Breakdown:

August: 17-06-00 74% +1010

September 01-00-00 100% +100

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Eastern Illinois +35 -115

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

New Hampshire -4 -115 (going for the middle)

Furman +30 -115

The Citadel +35 -115

Eastern Washington +21 -115

Southeast Missouri State +54 -115

Montana State +28.5 -115

Montana -1.5 -115

================

List of teams I feel rate a high chance of outright victories:

Georgetown
Holy Cross
Monmouth
Stony Brook
The Citadel
Richmond
Alabama State
Idaho State
William & Mary
Duquesne
South Dakota State
Weber State

A few of these games are against I-A/FBS teams. While many don't feel they stand a chance, The Citadel are a sneaky team who will give Clemson all they can handle. Now usually in these cases you have a team pissed off & looking to take their frustration out. However Clemson has a history of letting bad losses linger so I don't expect their best effort today & they have a habit of losing games they shouldn't. If I could find ML's on any of these games especially 1st H's, I'd be all over The Citadel for the 1st H & 1st Q as well.

Weber State was a difficult game for me. They have scoring power & can match Hawaii score for score. My concern is the mental makeup of the Warriors after their beating against Florida. They might be looking to take out their frustrations as dating back to the Sugar Bowl, they have been whipped from pillar to post & take a step down in terms of overall talent in their opponent.

If this was a June Jones coached team, I would have been on Hawaii as I know how his team would react. I'm not so sure in this game & feel safer taking a motivated Weber State bunch who has a # of players returning home for this game including their starting QB. They have been looking forward to this game & feel they will put their best foot forward.

Stony Brook is a very dangerous team who are looking to make their mark as they work their way up the I-AA/FCS food chain. They had a very bad loss to Elon last year due to their own mistakes as compared to Elon actually being superior. If they correct the mental mistakes which I think they will under Coach Priore, they should be able to win this game outright by 7-10 points. I might attend this game depending on how I feel as right now I feel ****ty.

Richmond is a very dangerous opponent for a Cavaliers team that might still be shell shocked from the ass whooping the Trojans put on them without really trying. This is an in-state rivalry game for the Spiders who are no stranger to taking on & beating I-A/FBS teams as they shut out Duke in 2006 (I know it was Duke), The Cavaliers are a mess on offense & have no business laying over 2 TD's to Richmond in a game I feel the Spiders can win outright by 7-10 points themselves.

Monmouth is probably one of my favorite I-AA/FCS programs as they have won outright as a dog for me on many occasions. They are a scrappy bunch who mainly count on their defense which normally is one of the top units in the country to lead them to victory. I feel they can once again count on them to help them handle a Black Bears offense which would never be described as potent. I see a very low scoring game especially considering the weather they will be playing in. I know the Black Bears are hungry for a win after the Iowa debacle but I think it will have to wait. If it doesn't, I doubt they get the win by over 2 TD's.


----------------

As I was writing this, I heard the Georgetown-Howard game was postponed until tomorrow.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Now onto the record update for last Saturday & Sunday's games:

09/06/08 Recap:

34-16-00 68% +1485 (Based on to win $100 per selection for record purposes only)

--------

09/07/08 Recap:

01-01-00 50% -20 (Based on to win $100 per selection for record purposes only)

==============

Season:

53-23-00 70% +2575 (Based on to win $100 per selection for record purposes only)


Breakdown:

August: 17-06-00 74% +1010

September 36-17-00 68% +1565

 

[Cappin'Guru]

Where do you get these lines again?

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Thursday:

Tennessee Martin -38 -120

Tennessee Tech -5 -120

============

Saturday:

Southern Illinois +13.5 -120

Montana State +27.5 -115

New Hampshire -22 -115

Jacksonville -22 -115

Colgate +17.5 -115

Fordham -6 -115

Monmouth +6.5 -115

Robert Morris +5 -115

St. Francis Pennsylvania +10.5 -115

Wagner -2 -115

North Dakota -22.5 -115

Charleston Southern +31 -115

Towson +20 -115

Grambling -7 -115

North Dakota State +8.5 -115

Montana -21 -115

Villanova -11 -115

Massachusetts -6.5 -115

Florida State -37 -115

North Carolina Central +18.5 -115

North Carolina A&T +15 -115

South Carolina State -11 -115

Stony Brook +7 -115

Georgetown +22 -115

Morehead State +20.5 -115

Presbyterian +13.5 -115

Hampton -21.5 -115

Liberty -13 -115

Winstom Salem -30 -115

Murray State +19 -115

Samford +38.5 -115

Central Arkansas -17 -120

Austin Peay +8 -115

Eastern Illinois -26 -115

Georgia Southern -9.5 -115

Albany +12 -115

UL Monroe -27.5 -115

Prarie View A&M +15 -115

South Dakota -6 -120

South Dakota State -5.5 -120

Mississippi Valley State +14.5 -120

Jackson State +5 -120

Troy -42 -120

William & Mary -13.5 -120

Oklahoma State -40 -120

UC Davis -3.5 -120

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Where do you get these lines again?

5 Dimes/BetUS

 

[Cappin'Guru]

Thursday:

Tennessee Martin -38 -120

Tennessee Tech -5 -120

============

Saturday:

Southern Illinois +13.5 -120

Montana State +27.5 -115

New Hampshire -22 -115

Jacksonville -22 -115

Colgate +17.5 -115

Fordham -6 -115

Monmouth +6.5 -115

Robert Morris +5 -115

St. Francis Pennsylvania +10.5 -115

Wagner -2 -115

North Dakota -22.5 -115

Charleston Southern +31 -115

Towson +20 -115

Grambling -7 -115

North Dakota State +8.5 -115

Montana -21 -115

Villanova -11 -115

Massachusetts -6.5 -115

Florida State -37 -115

North Carolina Central +18.5 -115

North Carolina A&T +15 -115

South Carolina State -11 -115

Stony Brook +7 -115

Georgetown +22 -115

Morehead State +20.5 -115

Presbyterian +13.5 -115

Hampton -21.5 -115

Liberty -13 -115

Winstom Salem -30 -115

Murray State +19 -115

Samford +38.5 -115

Central Arkansas -17 -120

Austin Peay +8 -115

Eastern Illinois -26 -115

Georgia Southern -9.5 -115

Albany +12 -115

UL Monroe -27.5 -115

Prarie View A&M +15 -115

South Dakota -6 -120

South Dakota State -5.5 -120

Mississippi Valley State +14.5 -120

Jackson State +5 -120

Troy -42 -120

William & Mary -13.5 -120

Oklahoma State -40 -120

UC Davis -3.5 -120

I was indeed a former Golden Eagle. Go Tech!!

What is your best method to buy onto 5dimes.com?

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

09/11/08 Recap:

01-01-00 50% -20 Based on to win $100 per selection for record purposes only)

--------

09/13/08 Recap:

22-20-01 52% -125 (Based on to win $100 per selection for record purposes only)

Note: The Prairie View game was postponed & the Grambling game moved to Sunday but my wager was canceled.

==============

Season:

76-44-01 63% +2430 (Based on to win $100 per selection for record purposes only)


Breakdown:

August: 17-06-00 74% +1010

September 59-38-01 61% +1420

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Thursday:

Arkansas Pine Bluff +5.5 -120

Idaho State +18.5

---------

Friday:

Holy Cross +10 -120


-----------

Saturday:

Wagner -2 -120

Albany +16 -120

San Diego -36.5 -120

Georgetown +28 -120

Fordham -8 -120

Stony Brook +10 -120

South Carolina State +32 -120

Florida A&M -3.5 -120

Iona +2.5 -120

Central Connecticut State -12 -120

Colgate -7 -120

Robert Morris +18 -120

Rhode Island +10 -120

The Citadel -11 -120

Western Carolina -3.5 -120

Delaware +3 -120

Maine +14 -120

Northern Illinois -39 -120

UC Davis +13.5 -120

Northeastern +10 -120

Villanova -7

Northern Colorado +3 -120

UAB -24 -120

Bethune Cookman -27 -120

Weber State +2 -120

South Dakota State +6.5 -120

Jacksonville State PK -120

Bucknell +4 -120

North Carolina A&T +21 -120

Mississippi Valley State +7.5 -120

Eastern Kentucky +6.5 -120

Morgan State -9.5 -120

North Dakota State -3.5 -120

Masachusetts +30 -120

Sam Houston State +33 -120

Murray State +24 -120

James Madison +2 -120

Portland State +11.5 -120

Elon +10 -120

Towson PK -120

Austin Peay +11.5 -120

St. Francis Pennsylvania +21.5 -120

Southeastern Louisiana +21 -120

Northwestern State +14.5 -120

Wofford +28 -120

Western Michigan -25 -120

Norfolk State +18 -120

Grambling -8 -120

Western Illinois -15 -120

Illinois State -5.5 -120

Nicholls State +14.5 -120

Northern Arizona -9 -120

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Adding:

Northeastern +14 -115

Northern Colorado +5 -115

South Dakota State +8 -115

Massachusetts +37 -115

Sam Houston State +40.5 -115

Murray State +27 -115

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Recap:

09/18/08: 01-01-00 50% -20 (Based on to win $100 per selection for record purposes only)

--------

09/19/08: 02-00-00 100% +200 (Based on to win $100 per selection for record purposes only)

--------

09/20/08: 27-27-03 50% -520 (Based on to win $100 per selection for record purposes only)

--------

Season:

106-72-04 60% +2090 Based on to win $100 per selection for record purposes only)


Breakdown:

August: 17-06-00 74% +1010

September 89-66-04 57% +1080


I'm annoyed as I demand better of myself!

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Thursday:

Mississippi Valley State +12.5 -120

========

Saturday:

UC Davis -2 -120

New Hampshire -17 -120

Southeast Missouri State -5 -120

Brown +4.5 -120

Holy Cross -17.5 -120

Rhode Island +43 -120

Yale -10 -120

Dayton -9.5 -120

Sacred Heart -2 -120

St. Francis Pennsylvania +18 -120

Monmouth -2 -120

Western Carolina +16 -120

Samford +20 -120

San Diego -6.5 -120

Jacksonville State PK -120

Columbia +10 -120

South Dakota +11.5 -120

Villanova +4 -120

Albany +14 -120

Lehigh -1.5 -120

Chattanooga +20 -120

Maine +9 -120

Lafayette -4 -120

Fordham -1 -120

Howard -7 -120

Liberty +11 -120

Northern Iowa -2.5 -120

Central Arkansas +29 -120

Wofford -2.5 -120

Texas State -7 -120

Presbyterian +36.5 -120

Central Connecticut State +11 -120

South Dakota State -12.5 -120

Weber State +41 -120

Idaho State +24 -120

 

[jayrocker26]

Like Lehigh in this spot also as Princeton is a little banged up.

Any thoughts on Rutgers/Morgan State? At -28 it seems somewhat a bargain as I think Schiano will let the dogs loose into the 4th Quarter in attempt to get some fans off his back.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Like Lehigh in this spot also as Princeton is a little banged up.

Any thoughts on Rutgers/Morgan State? At -28 it seems somewhat a bargain as I think Schiano will let the dogs loose into the 4th Quarter in attempt to get some fans off his back.

I swear I was thinking about asking the mod's to send you my e-mail address as I wanted to discuss the Rutgers game with you. I purposely stayed away from it until I can hear what you thought. The line opened at -30 & none of the guys I bet with touched it so there are some Morgan State backers here although the movement is small for these games as it usually is higher.

My heart tells me Morgan State is in the wrong place at the wrong time. They are one dimensional as they are a good running team, #26 in the country & bad through the air ranking 107th. However the teams they beat would get smoked by Rutgers if they felt like doing so. They have not played any I-AA team worth a damn yet. The defense is ranked high, 6th in scoring & 4th in total but once again they have played Towson, N.C. Central, & Winston Salem. This is a Winston Salem team that lost to arguably the worst I-AA/FCS team in Savannah State.

 

[jayrocker26]

Wrong place, wrong time for Morgan State.

The only conceivable reason why Rutgers does not run up the score to something to the tune of 49-7 is that both of RB Jourdan Brooks' parents were Morgan State graduates. But....with the newspapers, fans, and basically the entire state of New Jersey openly displaying their frustrations with Teel, Schiano, and the 0-3 start, I do not think worrying about how Jourdan Brooks' parents may feel will even cross Schiano's mind.

Last year Rutgers shut out Norfolk State 59-0, and was up 45-0 before pulling their starters at halftime. Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood have still yet to smell the end zone, and should go off in this game. Mike Teel as well, who is battling serious, and I mean SERIOUS confidence issues will probably look like John Elway this week, as witnessed in previous games against subpar secondaries (Buffalo, Norfolk State, and Ball State in 2007). Rutgers was able to run the ball very well against Navy with both RB Jourdan Brooks and RB Joe Martinek and will likely have similar success against Morgan State.

Once again I know nothing about Morgan State, but their loss to Towson does not look very good.

The only silver lining for Rutgers is that they have yet to play a Big East game, and it doesn't appear that anyone other than South Florida is clearly running away with the conference yet.

Rutgers is a better football team than what they have shown, they just have yet to create a defensive turnover, and have left a ton of points on the board. They moved the ball against Fresno State, North Carolina, and Navy, averaging about 360 YPG, yet only had a combined 40 points to show for it. If they could put up nearly 400 yards against the Tar Heels, I do not think they should have any problem with Morgan State.

Bottom line is this. I think Rutgers is in desperate need of a 52-7 type win. One week later they go up to Morgantown, where they never win, in a game that for Rutgers is a 4th straight bowl berth, a Big East title, and basically their entire season all wrapped in one. If they lose to West Virginia (which they probably will) they will be 5-7 at best and will really rattle some feathers in Piscataway.

But back to this game, if you think Rutgers has the talent to beat Morgan State 52-7, bet them. I am likely betting Rutgers big at -28 if I can find it. I don't see them letting up until it is 40+. But be forewarned, I have only made one play on Rutgers this year, and unfortunately it was a big one on Rutgers -3.5 against Navy last week. I was dead wrong, although Rutgers had the ball with 2:00 left at their own 40 needing a TD for the cover. Maybe if the Morgan State game was played before the Navy game, Teel would have the confidence necessary to drive Rutgers 60 yards for the game winning score, but unfortunately it was not, and I am out of money and Rutgers is 0-3.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Thank you for your thoughts on Rutgers. Without question they have the talent to beat these guys by 50+. This is a barely average I-AA/FCS team who does not anywhere near the horses to hang with the Scarlet Knights.

As far as the Towson loss is concerned, I wouldn't say it was necessarily bad. They are huge rivals & play each other tight. Towson is the better team of the two but not by much.

Don't worry about that Rutgers loss, you made a very compelling argument for them against Navy. I played Rutgers for myself & agreed with everything you had to say.

They seem to lack the killer edge to finish off their good work. I haven't seen any team really hold their offense in check from going up & down the field. Yet something seems to stop them from getting the points they need.

If they were not 0-3, this line would be over 40 in my honest opinion. If they don't beat these guys by over 5 TD's it would be a severe disappointment in terms of the talent difference. If they had any heart, they will destroy these guys & that is saying something as I don't usually back I-A teams over I-AA unless it is complete mismatches.

I only held off as I was not sure of the psyche of this team at the moment. I don't think the .5 point will matter in this spot. If anything the line might go up as on gameday the so called mismatches usually skyrocket up.

 

[jayrocker26]

Regarding psyche...

Despite all that has happened I am pretty convinced the team itself is confident that they are going to win this game. Probably a little overconfident, but in this case that should be looked at as a positive instead of a negative as confidence is exactly what this team needs.

However there is only ONE thing that prevents me from pulling the trigger big, and that is the Mike Teel situation.

Teel has a decent college arm, and throws a decent deep ball. I can't tell you the countless times he has hit Kenny Britt on fly routes for TD's over the past 2-3 years. In 2006 and 2007 he was very successful against average to below-average competition working within the offensive scheme. A lot had to do with Rice, I know, but Teel did an admirable job working the ball intermediately to Underwood, Britt, Brock/Graves, and then a very good job hitting Britt and Tim Brown on fly routes for TD's against man-to-man coverage. The first hint that something might be wrong with Teel this year was when he barely overthrew a streaking Kenny Britt who had 5 steps on the CB who failed to bump him at the line during a 2nd Quarter fly route in the Fresno State game. The same route with the same protection thrown to the exactly same spot to the same receiver that Rutgers has probably executed 1500 times in practice, as well as 10-15 times in games. This was also the same route that Teel hit perfectly against Pittsburgh in 2007 despite playing with a thumb injury so bad that it forced him to come out during the 2nd and 3rd Quarters in a must-win game.

For Teel's confidence woes I completely blame the coaches. Teel came into this season as a 5th year senior, and a soon to be 3.5 year starting QB. All off-season he and the Scarlet Knights had to answer questions on how to replace Ray Rice, and I think that mixed with his desire to take full control and lead this team in his senior season has been disastrous.

But this one is on the coaches. Against Fresno State they failed to let Teel get in his groove. During the first Rutgers drive, Teel completed passes to Britt and Brock and it seemed that Rutgers was going to blow Fresno State out. Underwood then dropped an over-the-shoulder pass on a wheel route that looked to be a sure TD. Bring in a True Freshman kicker who shanked his first FG attempt and that is problem #1. But it was the play-calling on the Rutgers' third drive of the game that I think crippled Teel and sent him on that downward spiral for good. After being held on downs by the Fresno State defense inside the 2 yard line, Rutgers got the ball back off a punt around midfield. Despite dominating the game thus far, the Rutgers coaches try to be cute and call for a flea-flicker. With 10-14 points not on the board that should have been there, Teel forces the throw to Underwood into coverage that is intercepted in the end zone. From there it has just been a slippery slope. But all these misinformed Rutgers fans that want Teel benched they are crazy. If you can get his confidence back, he by far gives us the best chance to win. The next best alternative is a raw 19 year old True Freshman QB named D.C. Jefferson. The next best alternative is nationally ranked Tom Savage, but he is still calling plays at Cardinal O'Hara HS in Pennsylvania. We have all seen Lovelace's mockery of the position that was displayed against Pittsburgh in 2007, a performance so bad that it forced Teel to re-enter in the 4th Quarter to spark Rutgers to a late FG that proved to be the difference in the game.

But honestly, the home town fans are made of Giants, Jets, and Eagles fans. These fans are tough. If you want premium seats (inside the 20's) you have to pay about $350 up front before you buy the tickets each year. These fans are disgruntled in the first place that first Rutgers, and now their Giants and Jets are forcing them into either PSL's or some other form of it. They booed Schiano and Teel in the North Carolina game. Now they are ready to let their voice heard at a moment's notice if God-forbid Teel throws an early INT against Morgan State. That and only that is the only thing I am worried about here. A Teel INT and the fans won't stop booing. The fans already don't want him in there (classic "the backup is better situation") and despite his 6 INT's and 0-3 record, he took a swing at S Glen Lee while coming off the field during the Navy game. Schiano gave him a pass, saying Lee wasn't completely blameless himself, which I somewhat agree with considering that these next two weeks ARE Rutgers' season. A big win over Morgan State, and most importantly a big game for Teel and mixed with some defensive turnovers should give this team some confidence once again. That is what they need going into West Virginia, where their season will be on the line.

 

[jayrocker26]

Not too worried about Teel being pulled anymore.

I just read that Lovelace broke his leg in yesterday's practice, moving Sophomore QB Chris Paul-Etienne into the #2 spot. CPE still lacks a complete knowledge of the offense, and he will not see any of the field except for mop up duty if the score is already 45-7.

What other books offer FCS lines? I still can't find -28 anywhere only -28.5; although at this point it doesn't worry me too much. I may see if a local can offer something on this game, since it is a home town New Jersey team.