Rutgers Scarlet Knights +14 (-120), 1 unit: The Scarlet Knights have been decent at home (except for the Ohio State game). Conversely the Spartans really have not impressed on the road. I am also seeing a massive amount of action on Michigan State. It's enough to make me grab the home team and two scores.
12/1/2017 (57-50-6, +5.22)
USC Trojans -4 (-110), 2 units: Rare scenario here where a team coming off a bye is facing a team on a short week. The Trojans finally had a chance to rest and get healthy while the Cardinal just found out they would be in this game 5 days ago. The short week does not give Bryce Love a ton of time to get healthy and I expect USC to make Costello beat them. Darnold has turned his season around by limiting the interceptions and he has a few shots left to show he should be the first QB drafted. Also, keep in mind the Trojans blew them out the first time they met and turned the ball over twice while Stanford did not turn it over at all. Too many things working in USC's favor tonight not to back them at a small number.
Georgia Bulldogs +2 (-110), 1 unit: The first time these teams met I backed the Tigers because I thought the stage was too big for Fromm. Now he's experienced it and will be in front of a favorable crowd and I expect him to respond accordingly. Smart is one of the best in the game and I expect him to make adjustments while Malzahn contends with rumors of his departure to Arkansas. Johnson is a stud but how healthy is he after last week's late injury? Finally, you're asking Auburn to come off a win against their biggest rival to play a team they've already demolished and be fully focused? With the way the Tigers have been playing, doesn't 2 seem like a small number?
UL Monroe Warhawks +26.5 (-110), 1 unit: I really wanted to get 27.....just kidding. I don't know a thing about the Warhawks. Here's what I know...the Seminoles re-scheduled this game so they could get bowl eligible and they will. But, how locked in will they be? Their coach just quit. Who's coaching them tomorrow? Is he going with Fisher to A&M? Do they players even care about getting bowl eligible for an early December bowl in a cold location? There's no way I'm passing almost 4 TDs with a situation like this.
TCU Horned Frogs +7 (-110), 1 unit: The Sooners have the best offense I've seen in a long time. Their defense is horrendous. If anyone can exploit both of those things it is Gary Patterson seeing a team for the second time. All the pressure is on Oklahoma. Look for TCU to come out and play loose, go for it on fourth down a lot, throw multiple schemes at Mayfield and break out a bunch of stuff the Sooners have not seen on offense.
USC Trojans -4 (-110), 2 units: Rare scenario here where a team coming off a bye is facing a team on a short week. The Trojans finally had a chance to rest and get healthy while the Cardinal just found out they would be in this game 5 days ago. The short week does not give Bryce Love a ton of time to get healthy and I expect USC to make Costello beat them. Darnold has turned his season around by limiting the interceptions and he has a few shots left to show he should be the first QB drafted. Also, keep in mind the Trojans blew them out the first time they met and turned the ball over twice while Stanford did not turn it over at all. Too many things working in USC's favor tonight not to back them at a small number.
Georgia Bulldogs +2 (-110), 1 unit: The first time these teams met I backed the Tigers because I thought the stage was too big for Fromm. Now he's experienced it and will be in front of a favorable crowd and I expect him to respond accordingly. Smart is one of the best in the game and I expect him to make adjustments while Malzahn contends with rumors of his departure to Arkansas. Johnson is a stud but how healthy is he after last week's late injury? Finally, you're asking Auburn to come off a win against their biggest rival to play a team they've already demolished and be fully focused? With the way the Tigers have been playing, doesn't 2 seem like a small number?
UL Monroe Warhawks +26.5 (-110), 1 unit: I really wanted to get 27.....just kidding. I don't know a thing about the Warhawks. Here's what I know...the Seminoles re-scheduled this game so they could get bowl eligible and they will. But, how locked in will they be? Their coach just quit. Who's coaching them tomorrow? Is he going with Fisher to A&M? Do they players even care about getting bowl eligible for an early December bowl in a cold location? There's no way I'm passing almost 4 TDs with a situation like this.
TCU Horned Frogs +7 (-110), 1 unit: The Sooners have the best offense I've seen in a long time. Their defense is horrendous. If anyone can exploit both of those things it is Gary Patterson seeing a team for the second time. All the pressure is on Oklahoma. Look for TCU to come out and play loose, go for it on fourth down a lot, throw multiple schemes at Mayfield and break out a bunch of stuff the Sooners have not seen on offense.
12/16/2017 (Regular Season: 59-53-6, +2.92, Bowl Season: 0-0-0, +0.00)
Oregon Ducks -7 (-110), 2 units: One of the first things I look at in Bowl Games is motivation. The Ducks really want to win for their new coach, Mario Cristobal. Additionally, Oregon is undervalued as their numbers when Herbert were hurt were just awful. Freeman sitting out the game allows me to get rid of the hook and I don't think he's worth that much. The Broncos numbers on D strong but against a relatively weak schedule and they cannot afford to get in a track meet with the Ducks. Look for this game to springboard Oregon into 2018.
Oregon Ducks -7 (-110), 2 units: One of the first things I look at in Bowl Games is motivation. The Ducks really want to win for their new coach, Mario Cristobal. Additionally, Oregon is undervalued as their numbers when Herbert were hurt were just awful. Freeman sitting out the game allows me to get rid of the hook and I don't think he's worth that much. The Broncos numbers on D strong but against a relatively weak schedule and they cannot afford to get in a track meet with the Ducks. Look for this game to springboard Oregon into 2018.
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Arkansas State Red Wolves -3 (-120), 1 unit: Both teams are motivated and happy to be here. Fan support should be split. The Red Wolves are the play for me for a few reasons. First, they have the better defense and Rolland-Jones is a wrecking machine by himself. Second, Hansen is a weapon that only seems to get in trouble when he's throwing picks. However, the Blue Raiders aren't known for taking the ball away with only 3 INT's on the season. Should be a fun game with Arkansas State having just a little too much for Middle Tennessee State.
Arkansas State Red Wolves -3 (-120), 1 unit: Both teams are motivated and happy to be here. Fan support should be split. The Red Wolves are the play for me for a few reasons. First, they have the better defense and Rolland-Jones is a wrecking machine by himself. Second, Hansen is a weapon that only seems to get in trouble when he's throwing picks. However, the Blue Raiders aren't known for taking the ball away with only 3 INT's on the season. Should be a fun game with Arkansas State having just a little too much for Middle Tennessee State.
12/19/2017
Regular Season: 59-53-6, +2.92
Bowl Season: 0-2, -3.40
Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl
Akron Zips +22 (-110), 1 unit: I feel like I should get a half-unit credit simply for typing the name of the bowl correctly. No massive analysis in this one....I'm gladly taking over 3 TDs in a game where a team will play like they have nothing to lose. The Zips will have an "us against the world" mentality as this is the largest bowl spread in a long, long time. The Owls have to be happy to get back to a bowl but are they really excited about playing a game in a half full home stadium? I think there is about 2-3 points of value in this one.
Regular Season: 59-53-6, +2.92
Bowl Season: 0-2, -3.40
Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl
Akron Zips +22 (-110), 1 unit: I feel like I should get a half-unit credit simply for typing the name of the bowl correctly. No massive analysis in this one....I'm gladly taking over 3 TDs in a game where a team will play like they have nothing to lose. The Zips will have an "us against the world" mentality as this is the largest bowl spread in a long, long time. The Owls have to be happy to get back to a bowl but are they really excited about playing a game in a half full home stadium? I think there is about 2-3 points of value in this one.
12/21/2017
Regular Season: 59-53-6, +2.92u
Bowl Season: 0-3, -4.50u
Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
Temple Owls -7 (-110), 1 unit: Nutile made a real difference for the Owls when he took over at QB. It changed their offensive philosophy and it has worked. Temple also has the better D and the more experienced team. After losing their previous two bowl games I expect maximum focus from the Owls.
Regular Season: 59-53-6, +2.92u
Bowl Season: 0-3, -4.50u
Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
Temple Owls -7 (-110), 1 unit: Nutile made a real difference for the Owls when he took over at QB. It changed their offensive philosophy and it has worked. Temple also has the better D and the more experienced team. After losing their previous two bowl games I expect maximum focus from the Owls.
12/22/2017
Regular Season 59-53-6, +2.92u
Bowl Season 1-3, -3.50u
Bahamas Bowl
UAB Blazers +7 (-120), 1 unit: Two teams that are very evenly matched but while the Bobcats come limping in losing 2 of their last 3 the Blazers could not be more excited to be there after reinstating their dormant program. Yes, I used the word dormant. The difference in this one is explosiveness. Solich, who has not been good in bowl games, is going to try and grind UAB into submission but the Blazers have a strong run D. They also have a few more weapons on offense and I think they're in this one the whole way.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Central Michigan Chippewas +3 (-110), 1 unit: Will Allen play or won't he? Either way the Cowboys offense has not been very good. He's a stud but they lost a lot of talent last year and this season it has shown. The Chippewas are on a roll winning their last 5 and are a senior dominated team that is extremely motivated to leave with a win. Morris and Central Michigan are the more balanced offense and run the ball better than Wyoming. After dropping three straight bowl games I think we get maximum effort from the Chippewas.
Regular Season 59-53-6, +2.92u
Bowl Season 1-3, -3.50u
Bahamas Bowl
UAB Blazers +7 (-120), 1 unit: Two teams that are very evenly matched but while the Bobcats come limping in losing 2 of their last 3 the Blazers could not be more excited to be there after reinstating their dormant program. Yes, I used the word dormant. The difference in this one is explosiveness. Solich, who has not been good in bowl games, is going to try and grind UAB into submission but the Blazers have a strong run D. They also have a few more weapons on offense and I think they're in this one the whole way.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Central Michigan Chippewas +3 (-110), 1 unit: Will Allen play or won't he? Either way the Cowboys offense has not been very good. He's a stud but they lost a lot of talent last year and this season it has shown. The Chippewas are on a roll winning their last 5 and are a senior dominated team that is extremely motivated to leave with a win. Morris and Central Michigan are the more balanced offense and run the ball better than Wyoming. After dropping three straight bowl games I think we get maximum effort from the Chippewas.
12/23/2017
Regular Season: 59-53-6, +2.92
Bowl Season: 1-5, -5.70u
Birmingham Bowl
South Florida Bulls -2.5 (-110), 2 units: Played this one awhile ago and I'm pretty convinced I'm on the wrong side. From what I'm hearing the Bulls just aren't that motivated to be back in Birmingham when they had their sights set on a NY6 Bowl at the start of the year. On the field they're the better team. Flowers is a dominant player who can win this game on his own. My hope is South Florida wants to win for their emotional leader in his last game.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
San Diego State Aztecs -6.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Black Knights have been such a great story all year. I hate picking against the service academies in bowl games. However, they lose a big advantage, their option against the Aztecs who prep for it every year due to their matchup with Air Force. The combination of Penny and a tough defense will lead San Diego State to a win.
Regular Season: 59-53-6, +2.92
Bowl Season: 1-5, -5.70u
Birmingham Bowl
South Florida Bulls -2.5 (-110), 2 units: Played this one awhile ago and I'm pretty convinced I'm on the wrong side. From what I'm hearing the Bulls just aren't that motivated to be back in Birmingham when they had their sights set on a NY6 Bowl at the start of the year. On the field they're the better team. Flowers is a dominant player who can win this game on his own. My hope is South Florida wants to win for their emotional leader in his last game.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
San Diego State Aztecs -6.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Black Knights have been such a great story all year. I hate picking against the service academies in bowl games. However, they lose a big advantage, their option against the Aztecs who prep for it every year due to their matchup with Air Force. The combination of Penny and a tough defense will lead San Diego State to a win.
Dollar General Bowl
Toledo Rockets -6.5 (-110), 1 unit: Two teams that look pretty similar, both can score and neither boasts a strong defense. The difference to me is schedule. The Rockets have played a much more difficult schedule. In fact, the Mountaineers tied for the Sun Belt title but they didn't face the other two top teams in the conference, Troy or Arkansas State. Also a revenge spot here for Toledo.
Toledo Rockets -6.5 (-110), 1 unit: Two teams that look pretty similar, both can score and neither boasts a strong defense. The difference to me is schedule. The Rockets have played a much more difficult schedule. In fact, the Mountaineers tied for the Sun Belt title but they didn't face the other two top teams in the conference, Troy or Arkansas State. Also a revenge spot here for Toledo.
12/24/2017 (RS: 59-53-6, +2.92, BS: 2-7, -5.90)
HAWAI'I BOWL
Fresno State Bulldogs +1.5 (-110), 1 unit: Incredible turnaround by the Bulldogs. They've played the tougher schedule with losses to 3 teams that will finish the year in the Top 20. Fresno State has a strong defense and is very motivated to finish their turnaround with a win. The Cougars have righted the ship with their third QB and he can make some plays. There are two questions about Houston: 1. How will they function without an offensive coordinator (he went to Florida with Mullen)? 2. Will they be dialed in or have enjoyed their time on the Island a little too much? The Bulldogs were there a little more than a month ago so this will be a business trip for them.
HAWAI'I BOWL
Fresno State Bulldogs +1.5 (-110), 1 unit: Incredible turnaround by the Bulldogs. They've played the tougher schedule with losses to 3 teams that will finish the year in the Top 20. Fresno State has a strong defense and is very motivated to finish their turnaround with a win. The Cougars have righted the ship with their third QB and he can make some plays. There are two questions about Houston: 1. How will they function without an offensive coordinator (he went to Florida with Mullen)? 2. Will they be dialed in or have enjoyed their time on the Island a little too much? The Bulldogs were there a little more than a month ago so this will be a business trip for them.
12/26/2017 (RS: 59-53-6, +2.92, BS: 3-7, -4.90)
ZAXBY'S HEART OF DALLAS BOWL
Utah Utes -7 (-110), 1 unit: The Utes were a handful of plays away from 10-2. They have possibly the best bowl coach of all time. Huntley is healthy and I expect Utah to be able to move the ball all day on the ground and in the air. On the other side, the Mountaineers are missing two of their biggest offensive weapons, their defense has been porous all year and their coach is average at best. It will be a slow start due to the early game time but I expect the Utes to grind their way to a win.
QUICK LANE BOWL
Northern Illinois Huskies +5.5 (-110), 1 unit: Two very strong defenses in this one, points should be at a premium. A few reasons to like the Huskies: 1. This should be a virtual home game for them due to proximity and also excitement by their fan base. 2. The Blue Devils have a severe disadvantage on special teams having dismissed their kicker and in a game where field position will matter and points will be few and far between this is a big difference.
CACTUS BOWL
Kansas State Wildcats -6.5 (-110), 1 unit: Too many questions for the Bruins in this one. Can they stop anyone? Will Rosen play? Will Fisch be part of Kelly's staff? Do the players even care to be there? The Wildcats found something with Thompson and come in with a ton of momentum. Look for Kansas State to control the clock and run up and down the field and eventually put UCLA away.
ZAXBY'S HEART OF DALLAS BOWL
Utah Utes -7 (-110), 1 unit: The Utes were a handful of plays away from 10-2. They have possibly the best bowl coach of all time. Huntley is healthy and I expect Utah to be able to move the ball all day on the ground and in the air. On the other side, the Mountaineers are missing two of their biggest offensive weapons, their defense has been porous all year and their coach is average at best. It will be a slow start due to the early game time but I expect the Utes to grind their way to a win.
QUICK LANE BOWL
Northern Illinois Huskies +5.5 (-110), 1 unit: Two very strong defenses in this one, points should be at a premium. A few reasons to like the Huskies: 1. This should be a virtual home game for them due to proximity and also excitement by their fan base. 2. The Blue Devils have a severe disadvantage on special teams having dismissed their kicker and in a game where field position will matter and points will be few and far between this is a big difference.
CACTUS BOWL
Kansas State Wildcats -6.5 (-110), 1 unit: Too many questions for the Bruins in this one. Can they stop anyone? Will Rosen play? Will Fisch be part of Kelly's staff? Do the players even care to be there? The Wildcats found something with Thompson and come in with a ton of momentum. Look for Kansas State to control the clock and run up and down the field and eventually put UCLA away.
12/27/2017 (RS: 59-53-6, +2.92, BS: 5-8, -4.00)
WALK ON'S INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +14.5 (-110), 1 unit: Definitely misread the market on this one and got a bad number. That being said I still think the Golden Eagles are the right play. First of all, I'm not sure the Seminoles want to be in Shreveport or anywhere else besides vacation. Second, Southern Miss can move the ball and the Florida State defense just isn't very good. The Golden Eagles will play hard until the final whistle and they should have a good chance of keeping it within the number.
NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL
Boston College Eagles +3 (-130), 1 unit: The Hawkeyes are still living off their upset of Ohio State. They're not a good football team. The Eagles come in on a roll having won 5 of their last 6. Both teams will look to establish the run and while Iowa will throw it better than BC, the BC defense will be the difference in this one. It also seems to me that while the Eagles are thrilled with playing in Yankee Stadium the Hawkeyes are disappointed in a cold weather destination.
FOSTER FARMS BOWL
Purdue Boilermakers +3 (-110), 1 unit: This one comes down to defense. The Boilermakers have it, the Wildcats do not. No doubt Tate is a difference maker but Purdue has done well against strong running teams this year. Brohm is a good bowl game coach and Rich Rod is well....Rich Rod. With time to figure out a way to make Tate a thrower instead of a runner, I like the Boilermakers chances in this one.
ACADEMY SPORTS+OUTDOORS TEXAS BOWL
Missouri Tigers -3 (-110), 2 units: Going against Tom Herman as an underdog is not a recipe for success. However, everything I am reading tells me the Longhorns do not want to be here. They locked up a bowl game and then laid an egg against Texas Tech. Their reward is an in state trip to Houston. They now have countless injuries, suspensions and players sitting out to protect their draft status. The Tigers have had an amazing resurgence. They still have not forgotten the beatings they used to take from Texas and are absolutely playing for respect. If Missouri jumps on top early, this one could get out of hand in a hurry.
WALK ON'S INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +14.5 (-110), 1 unit: Definitely misread the market on this one and got a bad number. That being said I still think the Golden Eagles are the right play. First of all, I'm not sure the Seminoles want to be in Shreveport or anywhere else besides vacation. Second, Southern Miss can move the ball and the Florida State defense just isn't very good. The Golden Eagles will play hard until the final whistle and they should have a good chance of keeping it within the number.
NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL
Boston College Eagles +3 (-130), 1 unit: The Hawkeyes are still living off their upset of Ohio State. They're not a good football team. The Eagles come in on a roll having won 5 of their last 6. Both teams will look to establish the run and while Iowa will throw it better than BC, the BC defense will be the difference in this one. It also seems to me that while the Eagles are thrilled with playing in Yankee Stadium the Hawkeyes are disappointed in a cold weather destination.
FOSTER FARMS BOWL
Purdue Boilermakers +3 (-110), 1 unit: This one comes down to defense. The Boilermakers have it, the Wildcats do not. No doubt Tate is a difference maker but Purdue has done well against strong running teams this year. Brohm is a good bowl game coach and Rich Rod is well....Rich Rod. With time to figure out a way to make Tate a thrower instead of a runner, I like the Boilermakers chances in this one.
ACADEMY SPORTS+OUTDOORS TEXAS BOWL
Missouri Tigers -3 (-110), 2 units: Going against Tom Herman as an underdog is not a recipe for success. However, everything I am reading tells me the Longhorns do not want to be here. They locked up a bowl game and then laid an egg against Texas Tech. Their reward is an in state trip to Houston. They now have countless injuries, suspensions and players sitting out to protect their draft status. The Tigers have had an amazing resurgence. They still have not forgotten the beatings they used to take from Texas and are absolutely playing for respect. If Missouri jumps on top early, this one could get out of hand in a hurry.
12/28/2017 (RS: 59-53-6, +2.92, BS: 6-11, -7.60)
MILITARY BOWL PRESENTED BY NORTHRUP GRUMAN
Navy Midshipmen -1 (-110), 1 unit: Both teams limped down the stretch. Too much being made of Mendenhall versus the option, they caught Tech in a flat spot. Home game for the Midshipmen.
CAMPING WORLD BOWL
Oklahoma State Cowboys -5.5 (-110), 1 unit: Hokies just weren't good versus quality opponents. Too many weapons for the Cowboys. Teams have figured out Josh Jackson.
VALERO ALAMO BOWL
TCU Horned Frogs -3 (-110), 1 unit: Horned Frogs strong against the rush and will dare Costello to throw. Need to see good Kenny Hill in this one and TCU can get a win.
SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION HOLIDAY BOWL
Michigan State Spartans +1 (-110), 2 units: Played this a week ago. Huge coaching mismatch in this one. Cougars have been mediocre away from home. Spartans have a lot more offense than most people think.
MILITARY BOWL PRESENTED BY NORTHRUP GRUMAN
Navy Midshipmen -1 (-110), 1 unit: Both teams limped down the stretch. Too much being made of Mendenhall versus the option, they caught Tech in a flat spot. Home game for the Midshipmen.
CAMPING WORLD BOWL
Oklahoma State Cowboys -5.5 (-110), 1 unit: Hokies just weren't good versus quality opponents. Too many weapons for the Cowboys. Teams have figured out Josh Jackson.
VALERO ALAMO BOWL
TCU Horned Frogs -3 (-110), 1 unit: Horned Frogs strong against the rush and will dare Costello to throw. Need to see good Kenny Hill in this one and TCU can get a win.
SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION HOLIDAY BOWL
Michigan State Spartans +1 (-110), 2 units: Played this a week ago. Huge coaching mismatch in this one. Cougars have been mediocre away from home. Spartans have a lot more offense than most people think.
