On The Hop's 2016-2017 NFL Football

[OnTheHop]

Last year was a disaster. Results are here: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1028348

I've changed a few things. Let's see if it helps. Your constructive criticism and/or questions are always welcome. Good luck to everyone this season.

9/8/2016 (0-0, +0u)

Denver Broncos +3 (-120), 1 unit: These teams met a few months ago and Denver dominated the game. Now they're at home and getting a FG? What's changed? One of the greatest to ever play the game, Peyton Manning is gone. In my mind based on how he was playing at the end of last season, Siemien is not a huge drop off if at all. The Panthers have most of the same players except their secondary looks a little different. But, who knows if a new QB can take advantage of that? So, why Denver? A few reasons....first, in what should be a tough, defensive game I like getting the points. Second, with a team having a short week to prepare and playing at altitude, I like getting the points. Third, the whole world is on Carolina. All of those add up to me taking the home dog tonight.

 

[Greenbacks]

Nice W/U......GL this season!

 

[indiana]

Hop...........BOL with your action this week............may you have a great and profitable season............indy

 

[XSPower]

Good luck tonight my friend!!!

 

[OnTheHop]

Off to a good start. Appreciate the kind words from those that checked in. GL to everyone today.

9/11/2016 (1-0-0, +1u)

New York Jets +2 (-110), 1 unit: Two teams that are built fairly similarly. Two teams with strong defenses, mediocre offenses and quarterbacks that want to manage the game and get it to their big play WR's whenever they can. These teams seem so similar that I have to grab the home team getting points.

San Diego Chargers +7 (-125), 1 unit: Last year was awful for the Chargers. Taking a closer look, they were crushed by injuries. Most of the team is healthy which should open up a few more holes for Melvin Gordon. Giving Rivers another weapon in Benjamin is certainly going to help. The Chiefs are coming into the season less than healthy. Charles won't play today, Houston is hurt and they are missing a handful of their core players from last year are gone. It may be a late backdoor cover but the Chargers have enough weapons to stay in this game.

Houston Texans -4 (-120), 1 unit: The Texans are one of the teams I really like this year. The addition of Osweiler is not huge (although O'Brien tends to work miracles with QBs). The additions of Lamar Miller and Will Fuller are huge. This offense now has weapons all over the field. Combine that with their stout defense and it's going to be a good year for the Texans. The Bears are a mess. Cutler had his best year ever last year but Adam Gase is now the head coach of the Dolphins, Martellus Bennett is with the Pats, Matt Forte is with the Jets. Trevathian will help the defense but it's not enough. It will be a long year for the Bears and it starts today.

Tennessee Titans +3 (-135), 1 unit: The Titans are another team I think will be greatly improved. I like what Mariota brings to the table and expect him to take a big leap forward. They will control the clock with his legs, Murray and Henry. Bradford isn't ready to go for the Vikings so they turn to Shawn Hill who last started a game during the Nixon administration. The Titans will stack the box and dare Hill to beat them. I don't think he's up to the challenge.

Green Bay Packers/Seattle Seahawks/Arizona Cardinals (+130), 1 unit: If the Packers and Seahawks win I will likely look to try and middle this one.

 

[OnTheHop]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5/Dallas Cowboys +7 (+100), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

New England Patriots +9.5 (-110), .6 units: Trying to middle the parlay above. For what it's worth I like the Patriots at this number but would probably leave this game alone if I didn't have the middle opportunity.

 

[OnTheHop]

9/12/2016 (6-2-0, +3.25u

Washington Redskins +2 (-110), 1 unit

 

[indiana]

Hop..........nicely done...........good luck tonight..........indy

 

[JABATHAHUT]

Nice job week 1 so far....GL tonight.

 

[OnTheHop]

Skins were never in that one. Bad finish to an otherwise good week. GL to everyone today.

9/18/2016 (6-3-0, +2.15u)

Houston Texans PICK (-110), 1 unit: Texans struggled a little with a bad Bears team last week but made plays when they needed to. Osweiler gives them a dimension they haven't had in awhile and Miller is a nice threat out of the backfield. Chiefs looked horrible for 3.5 quarters last week and ended up with a win over a poor San Diego squad. Huge revenge spot for Houston after KC crushed them in the playoffs last year.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 (-110), 1 unit: The Steelers certainly have an explosive offense but it's just not fair to use the Redskins as a measuring stick. I don't think Pittsburgh will be able to move the ball at will like they did on Monday night. Games between these two squads are usually close and with the home team coming off a short week I'll grab the fg.

Washington Redskins -3 (-110), 1 unit: Dallas looked good last week, coming up just short in Prescott's debut. The Redskins looked absolutely terrible and had no answer for the Steeler offense. Playing at home and playing on the road against your most hated rival are two very different things and I expect to see some nerves and bad decision making from Prescott this week. On the other side I think we see a lot more of Matt Jones and a lot better effort from Kirk Cousins. Should be enough to get a victory for the Redskins who cannot start out 0-2 and defend their division title.

Carolina Panthers -13 (-110), 1 unit: I rarely lay double digits and almost never do it in the NFL. Here's why I'm doing it in this case: Remember last season, the Niners upset Minnesota in the Monday Night season opener. They went across the country to play Pittsburgh and got crushed. I see a similar thing happening here. A west coast team, traveling east on a short week facing a team that got embarrassed in their opener and have had extra time to prepare. I'll take the home team and hope to not get beat by a late score.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 (-110), 1 unit: When the Bucs drafted Jameis I was convinced he would be a bust. Boy was I wrong. He's one of those players that can will his team to victory. The Buccaneers defense is certainly suspect but I'm not sure Carson Palmer has the arm or the time to take advantage of it. This should be a fairly high scoring game and getting 7 I'm basically getting an extra possession in what should be a shootout. I know the Cardinals can't afford to go to 0-2 but I don't know if that will be enough to cover a big number.

Los Angeles Rams +6 (-110), 1 unit: No doubt the Seahawks are the better team with all the momentum. The Rams were flat out embarrassed on Monday night and in their first game back in LA I expect them to play with a lot more pride and a lot more passion. This is still a very good Rams defense and while it's not the same home field advantage they had in St. Louis, the Rams always seem to play the Seahawks close. Hopefully they get off to a fast start and can stay within the number.

Green Bay Packers -1.5 (-110), 1 unit: I know they won fairly handily last week but the Vikings did not look good against a mediocre Titans squad. They were a few well timed takeaways away from a loss. I think the fact that Bradford is starting helps the Packers cause. Bradford won't be as conservative and he's known to throw the ball away on occasion. Something doesn't look right with Peterson and I wonder how they are going to move the ball. While the Vikings should be very motivated in their new stadium, Rodgers will absolutely keep his team in the game and I look for the Packers to pull out a late victory.

 

[indiana]

Hop.........go get em buddy............BOL with your action............indy

 

[OnTheHop]

Tennessee Titans +12.5/Denver Broncos PICK (+100), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

9/19/2016 (10-7-0, +1.75u)

Chicago Bears -3 (-110), 1 unit: The Bears are on the right track. They added free agents on the defensive side of the ball and on the offensive line. While it's only one game they played with a lot more discipline then they have in past years. Even Cutler threw his normal interceptions but they weren't the "holy crap what the hell did he just do" interceptions. Soldier Field will be ready and I don't think Wentz has seen an environment like this. The Eagles are getting too much credit for their win over an awful Browns team while the Bears are being downgraded for their loss to a very good Texans team. I look for the Bears to manage the game, stack the line and to put Ertz behind the chains and force him into a few mistakes.

 

[OnTheHop]

Not a good end to the week losing Sunday night and Monday night. Oh well, on to the next one.

9/22/2016 (10-8-0, +.65u)

Houston Texans +1 (-110), 1 unit: This number makes no sense to me and this play seems obvious. That is never, ever a good sign. That being said, I cannot avoid it. Third week in a row on the Texans and as I've said before I'm a huge fan of what they are doing this year. Excellent defense, good run game, two top WRs and a QB that can make plays. On the other side the Patriots are playing good football but it seems to me to be way too much to ask to get a rookie QB ready for his first start against this defense on a short week. It may be a sucker play or a trap but I cannot avoid taking what I think is the better team with the points.

 

[OnTheHop]

9/25/2016 (10-9-0, -.45u)

Cincinnati Bengals -4 (-110), 1 unit: Two very good defenses. A few things have me on the Bengals. First, home field. More importantly this is Siemian's first road game as an NFL QB. Second, the loss of DeMarcus Ware makes it easier to throw a double team at Von Miller. Third, the Bengals have a few more weapons on offense.

Tennessee Titans +1.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Titans could easily be 2-0 with a win over Minnesota if they could have protected the football. Mariota is coming into his own as an NFL QB and he should have a field day against the Oakland defense. Second trip across the country for an early kickoff in three weeks for Oakland.

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 (-110), 1 unit: This is the ultimate buy low game. The Jags could not have looked worse last week and the Ravens come in 2-0. However, upon closer look the Ravens are 2-0 while surviving two mediocre teams in Buffalo and Cleveland. I'm not impressed with either defense but I think the Jaguars have far more weapons on offense and will ride the home crowd to a victory.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 (-110), 1 unit: By now you're probably asking yourself if I've watched any football this year. The Bucs were a disaster last week and the Rams beat Seattle. The Rams always play Seattle well and the Bucs turned the ball over approximately 62 times. Now the Rams have to hop on a plane and travel across country after a very emotional win while the Bucs have to be embarrassed and ready to put last week behind them. Look for Tampa to take their frustration out on St. Louis.

New York Jets +3 (-130), 1 unit: The Chiefs were smoke and mirrors last season. They somehow made an incredible comeback to beat San Diego in week one. They were then beaten fairly soundly at Houston. The Jets come in with a close loss against a very good Cincy team and a decisive win over Buffalo. Their offense is clicking and they are working with extra rest. If I knew Marshall was playing this would be a bigger play for me but even without him I think the Jets have enough to get it done at Arrowhead.

New York Giants/Pittsburgh Steelers (+150), 1 unit

Green Bay Packers -.5/Seattle Seahawks -4 (+100), 1 unit

 

[indiana]

Hop..........lov T. Bay............BOL with all your action Sun. .............indy

 

[OnTheHop]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2H -.5 (-110), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

Hop..........lov T. Bay............BOL with all your action Sun. .............indy

Thank you! Appreciate the check in.

 

[OnTheHop]

9/26/2016 (11-16-0, -7.25u)

Atlanta Falcons +3 (-135), 1 unit: Full disclosure, I am coming off the absolute worst day I've ever had. May be best to fade me on principal alone. I know how tough the Saints are at home but I cannot get past their defense. This Saints team lost at home to Oakland. The Falcons went on the road and beat Oakland. While the transitive property doesn't necessarily apply, it is telling. Basically I trust the Atlanta defense to get a crucial stop more than I trust the Saints defense. Throw in the points and I'll grab the Dirty Birds.