On The Hop's 2015 NCAA Football

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Brutal year last year. Results can be found here: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=996528&page=3&highlight=

Not much better in the bowl games: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1009654&highlight=


Let me offer my usual disclaimer: I am not a system player. I play games based on certain factors and my knowledge of the game. Whenever possible I will give my reasoning for playing a game which will help you fade, follow or just laugh at me for being an idiot. There will be times where I don't have time to post a writeup. That does not mean I like the game any more or any less.


9/3/2015 (0-0, +0.00u)

North Carolina Tar Heels +2 (-110), 1 unit:
These are two bad defenses. In a shootout I'll take the offense that is significantly better. Here's what worries me...everyone loves the Tar Heels in this game and that rarely works out well. That being said they just have too many weapons for the Gamecocks and I expect North Carolina to get a big win on a neutral field to start the season.

Utah Utes -5 (-110), 1 unit:
Did he just say Utes? This number is inflated due to the Michigan and Harbaugh factor. I expect the Wolverines to be better but for that improvement to come later in the season. The Utes are a bruising team with 7 starters back on each side of the ball. They have a massive special teams advantage which should help them control field position. Opening on the road at altitude is just too tough of a task for Michigan.

Tulane Green Wave +7 (-105), 1/2 unit: The Blue Devils have been an ACC contender the past few years but things have changed. First, they've gotten quite a few breaks over the previous couple of seasons. That tends to even out. Second, they've lost their QB and top WR and don't have the defense to shut anyone down. The Green Wave has 16 returning starters, a nice running game, and a competitive defense. A TD just seems like too much to give up on the road in the humidity of New Orleans. Look for Tulane to keep it close and have a shot to win at the end.

Minnesota Golden Gophers +17, 1/2 unit: Hold your nose special. No doubt the Horned Frogs are one of the most talented teams in the country. I'm counting on the Golden Gophers ability to control the clock with the run and short passing game. Minnesota also has an experienced secondary which should allow them to play man with a spy on Boykin hopefully limiting his rushing yards. Just have to hope this one does not get away from the Gophers early as they don't have the weapons to play catch up.
 

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T/Hop........always look forward to your thoughts.........BOL this week end and the season.........continued success..............indy
 

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Thanks indy. Always appreciate you stopping by. GL this season!!

9/5/2015 (2-2 -.125)


Temple Owls +7 (-125), 1 unit:
This should be a battle between two of the better defenses in the nation. Plenty of experience on the offensive side of the ball as well. Too many points to give up in what should be a hard fought smash mouth game.

Texas A&M Aggies -3 (-115), 1 unit: Mirror images here. High octane offenses, mediocre defenses......or are they? The new D Coordinator for the Aggies is a difference maker. I also believe the mobility of Texas A&M's Kyle Allen gives them a dimension that the Sun Devils do not have in Bercovici. Finally this is a neutral site game but it's really a home game for the Aggies.

Bowling Green Falcons +21 (-110), 1/2 unit:
This team is going to be much better under Babers in his second year. They may not be able to stop anyone but they have more than enough offense. The Volunteers are going to win a lot of games this year and they'll win this one. However their D isn't good enough to be giving up 3 TD's to a high octane offense.

Arkansas State Red Wolves +28 (-115), 1/2 unit: The analysis here isn't that different than the BGSU game above. The Trojans are deep and talented on offense and they're going to put up a lot of points. However this Red Wolves squad can score with anyone. Their head coach is the next in the long line of Arkansas State coaches moving up to bigger programs and he'll have them ready. Besides, doesn't it seem like fun to be awake at 1AM hoping for the back door cover?
 

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9/7/2015 (4-4 +.75)

Virginia Tech Hokies +14 (-110), 1 unit:
Little doubt that the Buckeyes are the best team in the country. However there are too many things working against them in this one to cover a big number like this. First, the suspensions, especially Bosa. Second, the injuries, especially at WR. Third, a night game against a very good, experienced, motivated team playing at home. The Hokies know this one is a springboard to a potentially huge season. They return 8 starters on each side of the ball and were a few bad bounces last season from an excellent record. Little doubt Ohio State will be there at the end of the season but this is a tough, tough opening game and giving a big number is just too much in this spot.
 

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9/11/2015 (4-5 -.35)

Florida Atlantic Owls (+19), 1/2 unit: I'm impressed that the Owls hung in with Tulsa on the road. This is one of those once in a lifetime home games for a team like this and I'm not a believer in Golden being able to get the Hurricanes ready for a game like this, especially coming off a blowout win. Miami has better athletes all over the field but will their heads and hearts be in it the whole game? I don't believe so.
Utah State Aggies (+12.5), 1 unit: Hard to back the Aggies on the road after they barely beat Southern Utah. However, that's what I'm going to do. I expect a much better performance from Keeton and the Aggie defense is always tough to run against. These games are generally close regardless of ability and records so I'll take the double digits and hope it follows the same formula as the past.
 

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Both games above are -110. Apologies for not posting that correctly.

BYU Cougars +3 (-135), 1 unit: The loss of Hill makes this line very playable. Putting Mangum in the game is a downgrade however this is not the typical downgrade. He's a mature kid that was a top prospect coming into school before he went on his mission. The Cougars still have a tough defense and this is a brutal environment for the Broncos Finley to make his first ever road start.

UMass Minutemen +12.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Minutemen are the most experienced team in the country and they will not be intimidated going into Boulder. They had the Buffaloes on the ropes last year. With Colorado coming off a loss and a long trip to Hawaii and a rivalry game with Colorado State on tap this is a really tough spot for the home team to give up double digits.

Bowling Green Falcons +7.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Falcons moved the ball well last week at Tennessee. Their defense on the other hand was non-existent. The Terrapins don't have the same weapons that the Vols have and BGSU should be in this one the whole way and their firepower keeps the backdoor open the whole game.

Virginia Cavaliers +12.5 (-110), 1 unit:
In the early weeks I like the opportunity to play against overvalued teams. The Fighting Irish looked amazing last week against Texas and their offense is that good. However their D looked good in large part due to the Longhorns inept offense. Freshman QB Rosen has to travel all the way across the country for a relatively early game (Pacific time) for his first road start. Notre Dame also has a big game against Georgia Tech next week at home so this could be a look ahead spot for them.

Houston Cougars +14 (-110), 1 unit:
The Cardinals defense looks very strong. Their offense, not so much. Louisville faced Auburn last week and have Clemson next week. This is the definition of a trap game, facing a mid major in the week between. The Cougars have a strong ground game and when you combine that with the situation for the Cards I'll gladly take two TD's.

Arkansas State Red Wolves +10.5 (-110), 2 units: Tough to go back to the Red Wolves after last week's ass kicking....or was it. Take a closer look at the stats from that game. While Arkansas State was dominated on the scoreboard their numbers against USC show that it could have been a different story. They have a very dynamic offense and this Tigers squad is not ready to go on the road and give double digits to a team that will be incredibly fired up to have a big name team come to their stadium.

Mississippi State Bulldogs +4 (-110), 1 unit: The Tigers have a dominant defense but I'm not sure they can score. If they had a chance to work out their QB issues in their first game I might feel differently but they were cancelled due to weather. Look for the Bulldogs to stack the box against the run and make the Tigers beat them through the air. Prescott and a fired up home crowd will have Mississippi State in the game all night.

Michigan State Spartans -4 (-110), 2 units: The Spartans were in the game last year in Autzen until mid way through the second half. Looking at the stats they had a real chance to win the game. Mariota is no longer with the Ducks and while Adams looks like a very capable replacement this is his first road start in an environment like this. The Oregon defense does not compare to Michigan State's and I believe Sparty wins the QB battle as well. While it's tough to give points to a dynamic offense like this everything is telling me that MSU walks away with a big win.
 

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Hop...........good looking card............BOL this week.............indy
 

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Thanks indy...appreciate the kind words!

9/17/2015 (11-8 +3.8)

Louisville Cardinals +6 (-105), 1 unit:
This is a do or die game for the Cardinals. They still have a chance to salvage their season by doing well in the conference and this is a massive hurdle. They've played two very tough opponents and that can only help them here where they face a Tigers team that has only faced two inferior opponents at home. This is a different animal and I expect Clemson to struggle against a raucous crowd and a team with their back to the wall.
 

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9/19/2015 (12-9 +4.3)

Alabama Crimson Tide -7 (-115), 1 unit:
Saban in a revenge spot against a QB making his first road start in the SEC. At night? Number is a little low because the Tide didn't blow out Middle Tennessee last week. The Rebels can score but they haven't faced a defense this fast and this deep.

Air Force Falcons +24.5 (-110), 1/2 unit:
Tough spot for the Spartans. Yes, they're far more talented than the Falcons. However, they're coming off a huge win and now have to get ready for the option and cut blocking of Air Force. Also, Dantonio just doesn't strike me as the kind of guy that is going to run the score up against a service academy.

Arkansas Razorbacks -11 (-110), 1 unit: On the other hand, Bielema will be happy to run the score up against a P5 school, especially after getting beaten at home last week. This number should be 5-7 points larger except Arkansas lost last week. They match up so much better against a Red Raiders squad that will have no ability to stop the run in this one.

North Carolina Tar Heels -7 (-125), 1 unit: Huge step up in class for the Illini. They're just not ready to go on the road and compete with a team like the Tar Heels. North Carolina has too many weapons on the offensive side of the ball and they're happy to turn every game into a shootout. Illinois does not have the athletes to keep up.

Massachusetts Minutemen +14 (-106), 1 unit: The Minutemen forgot to show up last week in Colorado. However this is a good spot for them for a few reasons. First, this is a very experienced team that will be able to put that bad game behind them and bounce back quickly. Second the Owls are in a bad spot here. They were really outplayed last week and survived due to a few turnovers and now they have to go on the road to a small stadium coming off two monster wins. Expect the home team to stay close in this one the whole way even against one of the best defenses in the country.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane +30 (-110), 1 unit:
Even on the road I like taking teams that can score getting a big number. No doubt the Sooners are more talented but they're at the absolute peak of their value right now coming off a big comeback win at Tennessee. They have to face this dynamic offense with conference opponent West Virginia coming to town next week. If they get up big I expect them to shut it down and be happy to get out ahead in this letdown spot.

Utah State Aggies +7.5 (-110), 1 unit:
Any time Chuckie Keaton plays he gives his team a chance to win the game. Combine that with the return of a few suspended starters and the Aggies have a legitimate chance to win this game. The Huskies defense has been excellent but their offense has been anemic. Washington has a big game with Cal coming to town next week and it would be natural for them to look past a dangerous Utah State team here.

Kentucky Wildcats +3.5 (-115), 1 unit: I know all about the streak but quite simply the Wildcats have more experienced talent than the Gators. Kentucky was so close last year and they finally believe they can beat Florida. Now they get them at home under the lights with a freshman starting for the Gators.

South Florida Bulls +7 (-115), 1 unit: The Terps changed QBs and their new QB has stated "my job is to take care of the ball." Great, but how are they going to score? In a game where points should be at a premium I will gladly take a TD against a team that is really shallow and not very talented at the skill positions.

Bowling Green Falcons +3 (-110), 1 unit: The Falcons return home after playing Tennessee tough and dominating Maryland. The Tigers are claiming a win over a P5 team but I'm not sure Kansas counts. Bowling Green has a very dynamic offense and I'm not sure the Tigers can keep pace. While the stats look skewed in Memphis' favor the level of competition has a lot to do with it. Not sure the Tigers can step up here and get it done.

Georgia State Panthers +44 (-110), 1/2 unit: The Panthers aren't winning this one. In fact they're not even going to be competitive. However, the Ducks are coming off a huge game and have Utah coming in next week. Their starting QB is hurt and it would not shock me if he doesn't play or he sits early. And while Oregon is never afraid to run up the score, even they know it's not worth risking injury to roll it up against hapless Georgia State.

Fresno State Bulldogs +14 (-110), 1 unit: It's not like it was in the valley in the Pat Hill days. However the Bulldogs are still awfully good at home. The Utes come to town off a win over rival Utah State and have to go to Oregon next week. Smells like a sandwich spot to me. Utah has an excellent defense but they're likely starting a backup QB and even with their starting QB their offense has been Booker and not a lot of other options. Tough to cover two TDs with all those factors.
 

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Hop.........strong card............enjoy the day and BOL with your action...........indy
 

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Thanks indy....appreciate you taking a look.

Just a brief update: I know there are not a lot of people who actually read this horseshit. However....this weekend I will be in Vegas so I'll be posting my plays as I make them but there likely won't be writeups and the lines will be whatever is available at the book. Good luck to everyone this weekend.

9/24/2015 (17-15-1 +1.55)


No plays tonight
 

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Hop............win both in the sportsbook and tables..............enjoy your time.............indy
 

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Just a brief update: I know there are not a lot of people who actually read this horseshit. However...

LOL! Too funny! Don't be so hard on yourself!
 

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Good luck OTH.
 

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Thanks everyone! GL today.

Bowling Green -4.5 (-110), 2u
BYU +7 (-120), 1u
UMass +28 (-110), 1u
Louisiana-Monroe +37.5 (-110), 1u
North Texas +25.5 (-110), .5u
Tennessee -1.5 (-110), 1u
 

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