On The Hop's 2015-16 NFL Football

[OnTheHop]

Let me offer my usual disclaimer: I am not a system player. I play games based on certain factors and my knowledge of the game. Whenever possible I will give my reasoning for playing a game which will help you fade, follow or just laugh at me for being an idiot. There will be times where I don't have time to post a writeup. That does not mean I like the game any more or any less.

Last year's results: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=997203&highlight=

You may have to cut and paste the link...doing this on an iPad and can't get the link set up properly.

9/10/2015 (0-0, +0)


Pittsburgh Steelers +7 (-110), 1 unit: This game should be a shootout between two dynamic offenses and mediocre defenses. Even on the road I'll gladly take a TD in a game where whomever has the ball last should win.

 

[XSPower]

Good luck tonight my friend!!!

 

[indiana]

Hop ............BOL with you plays this week..............indy

 

[OnTheHop]

Thanks XS and indy. Always appreciate you guys stopping by. GL this year!

9/13/2015 (0-0-1, +0.0)

Houston Texans -1 (-105), 1 unit: This is going to be a hard fought defensive struggle. I'll go with the team that I believe has the best defense in the league playing at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-110), 1 unit: So difficult to back the Jaguars but I'll do so for a few reasons. First I think Bortles is going to have a very good year and the addition of Yeldon will help them run the ball. Second, the Jags should have a solid defense yet again. Third, Carolina just doesn't have enough weapons on offense to help out Newton. In what should be a FG game I'll grab three with the home team.

Arizona Cardinals -2.5 (-110), 1 unit: Saints on the road....bad. Cardinals at home...good. The Saints secondary is still beaten up and the Cardinals have a very nice group of receivers (look for Brown to have a breakout season). Johnson gives them another weapon in the backfield and a healthy Palmer is very underrated.

Dallas Cowboys -6 (-110), 1 unit: Look for the Cowboys O Line to dominate in this one giving Romo a lot of time to throw and their backfield by committee huge holes to run through. The Cowboys D should be improved this season and the Giants just don't have enough of a run game to control the clock or enough weapons to match Dallas score for score.

Atlanta Falcons +3 (-115), 1 unit: The Falcons were dreadful last year. However, I am a big believer in Matty Ice, especially at night in the Dome. The Falcons have more than enough weapons to match the Eagles, especially with the addition of Coleman in the backfield. The new coaching staff should have the Dirty Birds sky high in a huge matchup in Prime Time.

New York Jets -3 (-130), 1 unit: Now that the circus (Rex Ryan) has left town look for the talent of the Jets to finally play to their potential. This is a very strong defense and the loss of Geno Smith is addition by subtraction. This defense is loaded even with the Richardson suspension. On the other side of the ball, I'm not quite sure what the Browns have to offer. It's a lot of juice but I'll go with the more talented home squad.

 

[Serbone]

Thanks XS and indy. Always appreciate you guys stopping by. GL this year!

9/13/2015 (0-0-1, +0.0)

Houston Texans -1 (-105), 1 unit: This is going to be a hard fought defensive struggle. I'll go with the team that I believe has the best defense in the league playing at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-110), 1 unit: So difficult to back the Jaguars but I'll do so for a few reasons. First I think Bortles is going to have a very good year and the addition of Yeldon will help them run the ball. Second, the Jags should have a solid defense yet again. Third, Carolina just doesn't have enough weapons on offense to help out Newton. In what should be a FG game I'll grab three with the home team.

Arizona Cardinals -2.5 (-110), 1 unit: Saints on the road....bad. Cardinals at home...good. The Saints secondary is still beaten up and the Cardinals have a very nice group of receivers (look for Brown to have a breakout season). Johnson gives them another weapon in the backfield and a healthy Palmer is very underrated.

Dallas Cowboys -6 (-110), 1 unit: Look for the Cowboys O Line to dominate in this one giving Romo a lot of time to throw and their backfield by committee huge holes to run through. The Cowboys D should be improved this season and the Giants just don't have enough of a run game to control the clock or enough weapons to match Dallas score for score.

Atlanta Falcons +3 (-115), 1 unit: The Falcons were dreadful last year. However, I am a big believer in Matty Ice, especially at night in the Dome. The Falcons have more than enough weapons to match the Eagles, especially with the addition of Coleman in the backfield. The new coaching staff should have the Dirty Birds sky high in a huge matchup in Prime Time.

New York Jets -3 (-130), 1 unit: Now that the circus (Rex Ryan) has left town look for the talent of the Jets to finally play to their potential. This is a very strong defense and the loss of Geno Smith is addition by subtraction. This defense is loaded even with the Richardson suspension. On the other side of the ball, I'm not quite sure what the Browns have to offer. It's a lot of juice but I'll go with the more talented home squad.

ALL home teams? Never a good approach. Be careful. I find road teams do well the opening week, especially getting or giving 3 points or less... a good % play.

 

[OnTheHop]

I didn't even realize that. Excellent point. Thanks. Wish I had read it before I played this next one.

​Oakland Raiders +3 (-110), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

9/17/2015 (3-4-1 -1.35)

Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-120), 1 unit

 

[XSPower]

Good luck tonight!!!

 

[OnTheHop]

Thanks XS. Tough start to the year. Hope it gets better this week.

9/20/2015 (3-5-1 -2.55)

Houston Texans +3 (-105), 1 unit: There's no way I can get behind this Panthers team. The Texans D were put in an awful spot last week by their offense, they should shut down a Carolina team that has a serious lack of weapons. On the other side of the ball the loss of Keuchly is massive and while Mallett won't set the world on fire I expect him to give his team a good shot to win this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 (-110), 2 units: Classic overreaction line. Steelers get beat in the season opener and the public jumps off their bandwagon. Conversely the Niners win on Monday night and now they're good? The Niners have lost basically their entire defense and have limited to no weapons on offense. Also, they're coming across the country for an early kickoff on a short week.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 (-125), 2 units: The Bengals are very balanced on offense with Hill, Dalton, Green and Eifert. The D looked strong even if it was against the Raiders. Now they face a Chargers team that the world is in love with after their comeback last week. Beating Detroit at home is very different from facing the Bengals on the road with an early kickoff. I wonder if they'll have anything left in the tank?

Seattle Seahawks +3.5 (-115), 1 unit: The Bears may be the worst team in football. What does that have to do with this? The Bears hung in with the Packers the entire game last week, moving the ball up and down the field until Cutler pulled a Cutler. The Seahawks should have their way with the Packers D. Additionally this line is higher than it should be due to the Seattle loss last week. The Rams are just a bad matchup for Seattle and they're one of those teams that just have the Seahawks number. Finally, the loss of Baluga is a big one for the Pack and Rodgers may find himself with limited time to throw.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 (-120), 1 unit: Cowboys had a miracle comeback last week but the injuries have to be taking their toll especially in a game where they need to try and match Philly score for score. Look for Murray to get some revenge on his old team and for Romo to make one too many mistakes as the home team gets a win.

 

[XSPower]

Thanks XS. Tough start to the year. Hope it gets better this week.

9/20/2015 (3-5-1 -2.55)

Houston Texans +3 (-105), 1 unit: There's no way I can get behind this Panthers team. The Texans D were put in an awful spot last week by their offense, they should shut down a Carolina team that has a serious lack of weapons. On the other side of the ball the loss of Keuchly is massive and while Mallett won't set the world on fire I expect him to give his team a good shot to win this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 (-110), 2 units: Classic overreaction line. Steelers get beat in the season opener and the public jumps off their bandwagon. Conversely the Niners win on Monday night and now they're good? The Niners have lost basically their entire defense and have limited to no weapons on offense. Also, they're coming across the country for an early kickoff on a short week.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 (-125), 2 units: The Bengals are very balanced on offense with Hill, Dalton, Green and Eifert. The D looked strong even if it was against the Raiders. Now they face a Chargers team that the world is in love with after their comeback last week. Beating Detroit at home is very different from facing the Bengals on the road with an early kickoff. I wonder if they'll have anything left in the tank?

Seattle Seahawks +3.5 (-115), 1 unit: The Bears may be the worst team in football. What does that have to do with this? The Bears hung in with the Packers the entire game last week, moving the ball up and down the field until Cutler pulled a Cutler. The Seahawks should have their way with the Packers D. Additionally this line is higher than it should be due to the Seattle loss last week. The Rams are just a bad matchup for Seattle and they're one of those teams that just have the Seahawks number. Finally, the loss of Baluga is a big one for the Pack and Rodgers may find himself with limited time to throw.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 (-120), 1 unit: Cowboys had a miracle comeback last week but the injuries have to be taking their toll especially in a game where they need to try and match Philly score for score. Look for Murray to get some revenge on his old team and for Romo to make one too many mistakes as the home team gets a win.

Good info my friend, good luck today!!!

 

[OnTheHop]

Just a brief update: I know there are not a lot of people who actually read this horseshit. However....this weekend I will be in Vegas so I'll be posting my plays as I make them but there likely won't be writeups and the lines will be whatever is available at the book. Good luck to everyone this weekend.

9/24/2015 (5-8-1 -1.95)

New York Giants -3 (-115), 1 unit

 

[indiana]

Hop............BOL and enjoy the mini Vac (vegas)............indy

 

[OnTheHop]

Thanks indy!!!

Colts -3.5 (-105), 2u
Cowboys +1 (-110), 1u
Saints +9 (-110), 1u
Chargers +1 (-110), 1u
Texans/Browns ML parlay +110

 

[OnTheHop]

Lions +3 (-110), 1u

 

[halekulani]

saints +9?

 

[OnTheHop]

saints +9?

Yes....they were +9 in Vegas. That's the only damn thing I did right on Sunday. What an ass kicking I took. Worst Sunday I've ever had. Let's see if I can turn it around somehow.

10/1/2015 (YTD: 7-13-1 -7.35)

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (-110), 1 unit: This is a massive overreaction to Vick starting the game. The Ravens are just plain bad. Vick can manage the game well enough especially against the depleted Baltimore defense. Bell should find plenty of running room and as of now the Ravens have no running game to speak of whatsoever. I think the short week impacts the visitors far more than the home team and I'll take a FG and the home squad.

 

[indiana]

Hop..........hope the trip was entertaining............BOL with all your action this week..............indy

 

[XSPower]

Good luck tonight my friend!!!

 

[OnTheHop]

Thanks XS and indy....that push on the Steelers feels like a loss. Been a tough season so far. Let's turn it around right here.

Looking to play the Jags tomorrow when the number is posted. Hoping Luck plays and looking to get 9+.

10/4/2015 (YTD 7-13-2 -7.35)

New York Giants +5.5 (-110), 1 unit: Giants have been in every game this year and finally broke through against the Skins last week. Now they come in with extra rest against a depleted Bills squad coming off a monster win over a huge rival.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (-105), 1 unit: Every week I say the Panthers stink and can't keep winning. Why stop now? The Panthers haven't beaten a good team yet and were in trouble for awhile last week against the Saints and their backup QB. While the Bucs are not a good team they've recovered nicely after the opening week debacle with a win in NO and playing tough against a very good Texans D. Look for them to try and put up a good showing for their home crowd after the opening week disaster.

Washington Redskins +3 (-115), 1 unit: Complete overreaction to the Eagles win last week. They haven't looked good and if the Jets could have protected the ball at all last week this line would be reversed. Something isn't clicking with Philly and the Skins have been tough at home. With extra rest I'll grab the points and the home team.

New Orleans Saints -3 (-120), 1 unit: With or without Brees I like this play. Weeden couldn't take advantage of a bad Falcons secondary at home and he won't be able to take advantage of a bad Saints secondary either. Look for the Saints to throw early and often against a Dallas secondary that just allowed the Falcons to score again. Even though they're not as strong as years past the Saints at home in prime time are still a strong play.

New York Jets -2 (-105), 1 unit: The Dolphins look like they've quit on their coach. Now they have to hop on a long flight, play in front of a neutral crowd against a very physical Jets team. Jets showed some heart with a nice comeback last week even though they fell short. I'll take the team with the more positive mind set with a short number.

ML Parlay: San Diego Chargers/Green Bay Packers/Arizona Cardinals (+134), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

Chicago Bears +3 (+100), 1 unit

ML Parlay: Chicago Bears/Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Washington Redskins (+1280), 1/2 unit