On The Hop's 2014 NCAA Football Picks

[OnTheHop]

Let me offer my usual disclaimer: I am not a system player. I play games based on certain factors and my knowledge of the game. Whenever possible I will give my reasoning for playing a game which will help you fade, follow or just laugh at me for being an idiot. There will be times where I don't have time to post a writeup. That does not mean I like the game any more or any less.

Last year was pretty good.

2013 Regular season thread: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=963983&highlight=
2013-14 Bowl season thread: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=978290&highlight=

Any insights or constructive criticism are greatly appreciated.

8/28/2014
YTD: 0-0 +0 units

Texas A&M Aggies/South Carolina Gamecocks Under 60.5, 1 unit: Two teams breaking in quite a few new players on offense. It's going to be hot. It's early in the season so I don't expect either team to show the whole playbook. Finally, most of the Gamecocks damage should come on the ground which will keep the clock moving.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane -7 (+105), 1/2 unit: The Green Wave were so fortunate all year last year and I don't think that continues here. Huge step up for them going to the AAC. The Golden Hurricane return 10 starters on the defensive side of the ball and I expect them to make this a long night for Tulane.
Washington State Cougars -8, 1/2 unit: Mike Leach and his Apple Raid or Air Raid or Pirate Raid or whatever he calls it offense against that Scarlet Knight defense? Just too many weapons for the Cougars in this one.

 

[indiana]

Hop............always good to see you................BOL with all your action this season.................indy

 

[OnTheHop]

Thanks indy....only a lucky, lucky, lucky push kept me from 0-3. Hopefully it turns tonight.

 

[OnTheHop]

8/29/2014

YTD: 0-2-1, -1.65

Colorado Buffaloes (-3), 1 unit: Love what the Rams did last year but they just have too many top players to replace including their all world RB, Bibbs. On the other side of the ball the Buffaloes are making some nice strides under McIntyre and they have most of their starters back on both sides of the ball. This is one of those monster games for momentum early in the year. A win and they continue on their path. A loss and they are looking for answers. I think they get it done at home against their most hated rival.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks (+34.5), 1/2 unit: Make no mistake, the Spartans are one of the best teams in the country and are far more talented than the Gamecocks. However, I expect them to not show much of the playbook and to rest the starters early due to their upcoming matchup with Oregon. Jacksonville State plays a very uptempo pace and once Michigan State has pulled their starters there should be ample opportunity to close inside of the number.

 

[OnTheHop]

8/30/2014

North Texas Mean Green +26 (-108), 1 unit: The Longhorns are absolutely going to go in the right direction under new coach Charlie Strong and they are going to win this game. However, with a new coach with a new scheme against players who were overlooked by the big state school this is a lot of points to give up. Mean Green coach Dan McCarney has this program moving in the right direction and this is a chance for them to compete on a big stage. The coaches worked together at Florida and with Texas having a big game with BYU next week I could see them not running the score up once they have the lead.
USC Trojans -20.5 (-108), 1 unit: The Trojans might have the most talent in college football. While there will be an adjustment with a new coach and some off the field issues it's not enough to distract USC against an over matched Bulldogs squad. These teams are similar to the ones that met in the Las Vegas Bowl last year where an apathetic Trojan squad destroyed Fresno State. Now they're at home, with a new coach and I expect their talent to overwhelm the Bulldogs.
Penn State Nittany Lions/Central Florida Knights u44.5 (-103), 1 unit: It's not about the time change or the location. The Knights have one of the best defenses in the country and they should contain the Nittany Lions offense even with star QB, Hackenberg. Penn State has a ton of question marks on the defensive side of the ball but the Knights have a lot of new faces on the offensive side of the ball and it will take awhile for them to establish themselves. Look for Penn State to try and run the ball to keep their D off the field and keep the clock moving which should help as well.
Florida State Seminoles -18, 1 unit: Not too much analysis in this one. It's a mismatch all over the field on both sides of the ball. Style points count for teams trying to get to the playoff and a game against a Big Twelve opponent is a chance for the Seminoles to make an early statement.

 

[OnTheHop]

Pretty clear I am a total idiot. If for some reason you are following me, be careful.

​West Virginia Mountaineers and Alabama Crimson Tide u53.5, 1/2 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

0-6-1. The games I liked but didn't play? UTSA, Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio State.

I am a complete dipshit. Fade away, at least someone will benefit from my stupidity.

 

[OnTheHop]

8/31/2014

1-8-1, -6.06

Utah State Aggies +4, -101, 1 unit: I'm not exactly filled with confidence right now. That being said this was one of my favorite games of Week 1 and as I mentioned above there are a lot of games I liked that I did not play that would have been winners. It's too early in the season to give up. Keeton will be the best player on the field for either team. The Volunteers have way too many inexperienced players against an Aggie squad that has absolutely no fear in playing the big boys.
Baylor Bears -33, -108, 1/2 unit: This one is a total mismatch. I hate laying numbers this big so I'm only playing half a unit. The Bears are better across the board at every position and this one should not be close even when their second and third string is in the game.

 

[OnTheHop]

9/1/2014

2-9-1 -6.57

Louisville Cardinals -1/2, 1st Quarter, -105, 1/2 unit: Freshman QB on the road at night in a hostile environment. I'll take my chances.
Louisville Cardinals -5, -102, 1 unit: To say this season has started out horribly is an understatement. I am second guessing myself all over the place and can't get out of my own way. Hopefully those of you that have read my stuff in the past know I am not this bad. I tend to try and make "sharp" plays instead of the right plays. No reason to over think tonight's game. Too tough of an environment for Miami with a young team.

 

[hckydevil]

Keep working hard and NHL is coming soon. I know you love that as well.

 

[OnTheHop]

9/4/2014

4-9-1 -5.07

UTSA Roadrunners +7, +103, 1 unit: Posted a pretty lengthy writeup yesterday but the server issue deleted it. In summary, the Roadrunners are a veteran team on National TV in front of a massive home crowd against an inexperienced Wildcats QB. Teams like UTSA rarely get chances like this and while this one looks like it should be a rout for Arizona we've all seen what happens in Thursday night games when that is the case.

 

[OnTheHop]

Hckydevil...thanks for stopping by and taking a look. Appreciate the kind words.

 

[OnTheHop]

9/5/2014

5-9-1 -4.04

Washington State Cougars -3, -105, 1/2 unit: This is an overreaction to the Cougars loss to Rutgers. It was opening night, it was the late game and a lot of people were watching. What a lot of people were not watching was the Wolfpack barely getting by Southern Utah at home. Washington State has too much firepower for Nevada and just enough on D to control Fajardo.

 

[OnTheHop]

9/6/2014

5-9-1 -4.04 (Washington State Pending)

Michigan Wolverines +4, -120, 1 unit: Two offenses that should be able to move the ball at will. The Wolverines have two advantages. First they look like the better running team and second, the Fighting Irish secondary is really beaten up. In a tight rivalry game where the last team to have the ball should win I'll grab the points with the healthier team.
Arkansas State Red Wolves +17, -120, 1/2 unit: Situational play for me. The Volunteers looked great against Utah State in a game that a lot of people watched. This Tennessee team is loaded with freshman and they have a monster game on tap next week against Oklahoma. The Red Wolves should be able to put up enough points to keep this inside the number.
BYU Cougars -1, -108, 1 unit: Big revenge spot for the Longhorns and normally I would be all over them. However, Texas is just too beaten up on the offensive side of the ball. They are missing their starting QB, their starting C and I expect the Cougars to sell out to stop the run. Hill is the kind of player that can keep BYU in the game by himself and even with the tough travel schedule they have enough to get it done.
Michigan State Spartans +13, -107, 1 unit: So tough to go against the Ducks at home. However the teams that have shown they can hang with Oregon are the big, physical teams that can control the line of scrimmage, the clock and still have enough offense to match the Ducks. The Spartans are that team. They may have the best defense in the country. Cook has come into his own as a QB and they will be able to run the ball. Too many points to give a team as good as Michigan State.
USC Trojans +3, +100, 1 unit: As I mentioned earlier the Trojans might be the most talented team in the country. Sarkisian has shown he can have success against the Cardinal and their physical defense. Look for USC to wear Stanford down with their tempo. I'm still not convinced Montgomery is totally healthy and that makes things tougher for the Cardinal. It seems like every time these teams play it's a close game and I'll take the FG in a situation like that.
Tulane Green Wave +10, -103, 1/2 unit: Brutal loss for the Green Wave last week but they've had extra time to rest and shake it off. We learned Tulane can score and they defend the run pretty well. That is a recipe for success against a Yellow Jacket team that struggled with Wofford last week. Georgia Tech comes in with an inexperienced team, a QB starting his first road game and a team opening up their new stadium. In a game where the ball should be going up and down the field I will grab double digits and the home team.

 

[OnTheHop]

8-13-1 -4.86

Houston Cougars +17.5, 1/2 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

9-13-1 -4.36

UTSA Roadrunners +14 (-115), 1 unit: This is a tough, senior led team. They are facing a Cowboys squad with a brand new QB that is overvalued due to their solid performance against Florida State. The Roadrunners have had a few extra days to prepare and Oklahoma State has their conference opener on the horizon which makes this a potential look ahead spot.
East Carolina Pirates +10 (-120), 1 unit: It's definitely a letdown spot for the Hokies who stuffed the Ohio State offense last week. The Pirates have a more explosive offense than the Buckeyes and should put up enough points to keep this one inside the number.
Oklahoma Sooners -20.5, 1 unit: The Sooners are dominant on both sides of the ball right now. This is the first road game for the Volunteers and the first collegiate road game for many of their key players. Tennessee struggled to put away a decent Arkansas State team at home. Any struggles like that this week and they'll be out of this one in a hurry. Oklahoma is too deep, too strong and too experienced for the Vols.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3.5 (-107), 1 unit: Most people think the lifting of the sanctions will inspire the Nittany Lions. I look at it the other way. For the first time in a long time they have something to play for. They have some pressure and they can't play the "world is against us" card. The Scarlet Knights secondary is bad. Really bad. However their D line should get enough pressure against the mediocre Penn State line to disrupt Hackenburg. Rutgers has a chance to make a statement in their first conference game against a team that has owned them in a primetime showdown. I think they show up for this one.
South Alabama Jaguars +13 (-108), 1 unit: If I had the chance I would have waited for this to go to 14 but I have other commitments tomorrow. The Bulldogs struggled against a bad UAB team and now they have to go on the road with a huge conference game against LSU on tap. Both teams are going to score and I believe the Mississippi State defense is just bad enough and the Jaguars offense is just good enough to keep this inside the number.
Utah State Aggies -15 (-108), 1 unit: The Demon Deacons are terrible. The Aggies are undervalued due to their ass kicking against Tennessee. Keaton is rounding into form and a trip all the way across country against a tough defense is a horrible thing for Wake Forest right now.
Kentucky Wildcats +18.5 (-105), 1 unit: The talk of the Gator offense resurrection is a little premature. They had two weeks to prepare for a brutally bad Eastern Michigan team. The Wildcats are vastly improved and this is a monster game for their program. Are they going to win? Doubtful. Do they have enough to stay within the number? Definitely. By the way, Florida has Alabama next week so I expect them to keep it fairly vanilla and just try to walk away with a win.
UCLA Bruins and Texas Longhorns u50.5 (-105), 1 unit: The Longhorns simply can't score regardless of who is at QB. They are just too beaten up. Their best hope is to run, run and run to keep the Bruins offense off the field. This should keep the clock moving. As long as UCLA does not explode for 35+ this should stay under the number.

 

[indiana]

Hop............hope you have a successful Sat............indy

 

[OnTheHop]

South Carolina +7 (-115), 1 unit: The Gamecocks are obviously susceptible to a team that can throw it. I'm not sure the Bulldogs are that team. Give me South Carolina with their backs against the wall at home getting a TD and I'll grab it.

 

[XSPower]

Good luck today my friend!!!

 

[OnTheHop]

15-16-1 -1.77

Kansas State Wildcats +7 (+110), 1 unit: I misread this one completely. Thought the number would continue to rise and it didn't. First of all, it's become obvious that a top team going on the road on a Thursday night is dangerous. Second, the Tigers getting bounce after bounce after bounce has to stop. Third, give me Snyder over Malzahan. Fourth, Auburn is without their top DB in a game that looks to be a shootout. The Wildcats, especially at home are one of the best at pulling the upset and when you have a game that looks too close to call I'll grab the points with the home team.