Ole Miss @ LSU System

[AcesandFaces]

This system has come into affect once this year (Auburn at Miss State)..we all know how that turned out. After the Auburn / Miss State game, this system is now at 1-35-1 ATS and the team we play against is only 12-25 Straight Up. Perhaps Roll Tide will verify this with his database (several parameters/angles in play here).

This system states the following: We play AGAINST an unbeaten road favorite of less than 24 points, with at least 5 wins on the season, winning by at least 21 or more ppg, scoring less than 50 ppg, and allowing less than 17 ppg, off a Straight Up and Against The Spread Victory covering the previous weeks spread by at least a TD, and playing an opponent with a Winning % of .700 or greater.

Ole Miss Unbeaten with at least 5 Wins: Check
Ole Miss Winning by 21 or more points per game: Check
Ole Miss Scoring less than 50 ppg: Check
Ole Miss Allowing less than 17 ppg: Check
Ole Miss a Road Favorite of less than 24 Points: Check
Ole Miss Covered the spread in their last game by at least a TD: Check
Ole Miss playing a team with a .700 Winning % or better: Check

WE PLAY AGAINST OLE MISS AND PLAY ON LSU +3'

LSU +3'.....SEND IT!

 

[AcesandFaces]

This system has come into affect once this year (Auburn at Miss State)..we all know how that turned out. After the Auburn / Miss State game, this system is now at 1-35-1 ATS and the team we play against is only 12-25 Straight Up. Perhaps Roll Tide will verify this with his database (several parameters/angles in play here).

This system states the following: We play AGAINST an unbeaten road favorite of less than 24 points, with at least 5 wins on the season, winning by at least 21 or more ppg, scoring less than 50 ppg, and allowing less than 17 ppg, off a Straight Up and Against The Spread Victory covering the previous weeks spread by at least a TD, and playing an opponent with a Winning % of .700 or greater.

Ole Miss Unbeaten with at least 5 Wins: Check
Ole Miss Winning by 21 or more points per game: Check
Ole Miss Scoring less than 50 ppg: Check
Ole Miss Allowing less than 17 ppg: Check
Ole Miss a Road Favorite of less than 24 Points: Check
Ole Miss Covered the spread in their last game by at least a TD: Check
Ole Miss playing a team with a .700 Winning % or better: Check

WE PLAY AGAINST OLE MISS AND PLAY ON LSU +3'

LSU +3'.....SEND IT!

This system has come into **Effect not **Affect.

 

[RedElephants]

This system has come into **Effect not **Affect.

The Effect, Affects your Pocketbook.....lol.

 

[rolltide]

i guess the majority of those games were before dbase but i can verify that only 1 cover in last 10 games and certainly the two pushes (Kst/Ist 2012, Stan/USC 2011) could easily be wins with a half point diff line. so let's say I can find at least 1-9 ATS. let me jostle around and see what i can find when i start peeling back some stuff....but the query you are suggesting is below:

AF and losses = 0 and line >= -24 and wins >= 5 and tA(points) < 50 and tA(ooints) < 17 and p:ats margin >= 7 and o:WP >= 70 and tA(points-ooints) >= 21
SU: 4-6-0 (-0.20, 40.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 1-7-2 (-7.25, 12.5%) avg line: -7.0 +6: 4-6-0 (40.0%) -6: 1-9-0 (10.0%) +10: 6-4-0 (60.0%) -10: 1-9-0 (10.0%) O/U: 5-5-0 (5.85, 50.0%) avg total: 53.4 +6: 3-7-0 (30.0%) -6: 9-1-0 (90.0%) +10: 2-8-0 (20.0%) -10: 10-0-0 (100.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 36.5 144.9 29.5 18.9 242.2 1.5 5.5 11.2 5.5 5.1 29.5 Opp 35.7 153.5 31.1 18.8 229.7 1.6 5.8 8.2 5.1 8.9 29.7
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Oct 25, 2014 Saturday 9 2014 MIS LSU away -3.5 43.5 Oct 11, 2014 box Saturday 7 2014 AUB MSST away 0-21 13-7 7-0 3-10 23-38 -3.0 62.0 -15 -18 -1 -9.5 8.5 L L U 0 Nov 03, 2012 box Saturday 10 2012 ALA LSU away 0-3 14-0 0-7 7-7 21-17 -8.0 40.0 4 -4 -2 -3.0 1.0 W L U 0 Oct 13, 2012 box Saturday 7 2012 KAST IWST away 3-0 14-14 7-0 3-7 27-21 -6.0 48.5 6 0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 W P U 0 Oct 29, 2011 box Saturday 9 2011 STAN USC away 7-3 3-3 14-14 10-14 56-48 -8.0 61.0 8 0.0 43.0 21.5 21.5 W P O 3 Oct 22, 2011 box Saturday 8 2011 WIS MCST away 14-0 0-23 3-0 14-14 31-37 -7.5 50.0 -6 -13.5 18.0 2.2 15.8 L L O 0 Nov 26, 2010 box Friday 13 2010 BOIS NEV away 3-0 21-7 0-7 7-17 31-34 -14.0 68.0 -3 -17.0 -3.0 -10.0 7.0 L L U 1 Oct 09, 2010 box Saturday 6 2010 ALA SCAR away 3-14 6-7 5-7 7-7 21-35 -7.0 47.5 -14 -21.0 8.5 -6.2 14.8 L L O 0 Oct 31, 2009 box Saturday 9 2009 TEX OKST away 3-0 21-7 17-0 0-7 41-14 -9.5 53.5 27 17.5 1.5 9.5 -8.0 W W O 0 Nov 09, 2006 box Thursday 11 2006 LOU RUT away 15-7 10-7 0-8 0-6 25-28 -5.5 52.5 -3 -8.5 0.5 -4.0 4.5 L L O 0 Oct 14, 2006 box Saturday 7 2006 MIZ TXAM away 7-10 10-7 2-8 0-0 19-25 -2.0 50.5 -6 -8.0 -6.5 -7.2 0.8 L L U 0 Showing 1 to 11 of 11 entries

 

[rolltide]

ok peeling stuff back. obviously this only pertains to stuff since dbase was active 34ish years ago. i don't see how avg points allowed play a factor at all so i dropped that. stays with just 1 loss even at >60 opponent winning % so i moved that back a bit. i dropped the line component because none of these games ever had a line higher than -14 (perhaps <1980 it mattered?) so i can keep that same 1-loss (texas vs okla 2009) and it would actually include both mississippi teams this week:

AF and losses = 0 and wins >= 5 and tA(points) < 50 and p:ats margin >= 7 and o:WP > 60 and tA(points-ooints) > 21 SU: 5-6-0 (0.27, 45.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 1-8-2 (-6.73, 11.1%) avg line: -7.0 +6: 5-6-0 (45.5%) -6: 1-10-0 (9.1%) +10: 7-4-0 (63.6%) -10: 1-10-0 (9.1%) O/U: 5-6-0 (4.95, 45.5%) avg total: 53.5 +6: 3-8-0 (27.3%) -6: 10-1-0 (90.9%) +10: 2-9-0 (18.2%) -10: 11-0-0 (100.0%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.8 148.0 28.9 18.5 233.6 1.5 5.6 10.8 6.3 4.6 29.4 Opp 36.2 158.6 29.5 17.8 227.1 1.9 5.9 7.7 4.6 9.3 29.1 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Oct 25, 2014 Saturday 9 2014 MSST KTKY away -13.5 59.0 Oct 25, 2014 Saturday 9 2014 MIS LSU away -3.5 43.5

 

[AcesandFaces]

The Effect, Affects your Pocketbook.....lol.

;-) Pet peeve of mine as well Red. I had to correct myself right away; too many late nights and martinis in Indy this week; I'm sure you understand.

 

[AcesandFaces]

ok peeling stuff back. obviously this only pertains to stuff since dbase was active 34ish years ago. i don't see how avg points allowed play a factor at all so i dropped that. stays with just 1 loss even at >60 opponent winning % so i moved that back a bit. i dropped the line component because none of these games ever had a line higher than -14 (perhaps <1980 it mattered?) so i can keep that same 1-loss (texas vs okla 2009) and it would actually include both mississippi teams this week:

AF and losses = 0 and wins >= 5 and tA(points) < 50 and p:ats margin >= 7 and o:WP > 60 and tA(points-ooints) > 21 SU: 5-6-0 (0.27, 45.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 1-8-2 (-6.73, 11.1%) avg line: -7.0 +6: 5-6-0 (45.5%) -6: 1-10-0 (9.1%) +10: 7-4-0 (63.6%) -10: 1-10-0 (9.1%) O/U: 5-6-0 (4.95, 45.5%) avg total: 53.5 +6: 3-8-0 (27.3%) -6: 10-1-0 (90.9%) +10: 2-9-0 (18.2%) -10: 11-0-0 (100.0%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.8 148.0 28.9 18.5 233.6 1.5 5.6 10.8 6.3 4.6 29.4 Opp 36.2 158.6 29.5 17.8 227.1 1.9 5.9 7.7 4.6 9.3 29.1 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Oct 25, 2014 Saturday 9 2014 MSST KTKY away -13.5 59.0 Oct 25, 2014 Saturday 9 2014 MIS LSU away -3.5 43.5

Thank you RT.

 

[SECplayer]

This system has come into affect once this year (Auburn at Miss State)..we all know how that turned out. After the Auburn / Miss State game, this system is now at 1-35-1 ATS and the team we play against is only 12-25 Straight Up. Perhaps Roll Tide will verify this with his database (several parameters/angles in play here).

This system states the following: We play AGAINST an unbeaten road favorite of less than 24 points, with at least 5 wins on the season, winning by at least 21 or more ppg, scoring less than 50 ppg, and allowing less than 17 ppg, off a Straight Up and Against The Spread Victory covering the previous weeks spread by at least a TD, and playing an opponent with a Winning % of .700 or greater.

Ole Miss Unbeaten with at least 5 Wins: Check
Ole Miss Winning by 21 or more points per game: Check
Ole Miss Scoring less than 50 ppg: Check
Ole Miss Allowing less than 17 ppg: Check
Ole Miss a Road Favorite of less than 24 Points: Check
Ole Miss Covered the spread in their last game by at least a TD: Check
Ole Miss playing a team with a .700 Winning % or better: Check

WE PLAY AGAINST OLE MISS AND PLAY ON LSU +3'

LSU +3'.....SEND IT!

Do people still use "trends" like this? I counted no less than 10 requirements that had to be met for this "trend" to come into play. Something like this is no way a predictor of the game and I can't imagine how this would provide any meaningful insight into the game. It's just looking at past results and searching for completely random facts and tying them together.

 

[SECplayer]

Hopefully that didn't come across too negatively. I think some trends are worth looking at.

Maybe be a simple one stating that LSU is dominant in home games at night vs sec opponents. Or one stating that Rebels have had success at Death Valley recently.

I just question the trends's relevancy when combining so many factors that mayor may not be relevant. For comparison's sake, I'm sure I could mine past data for random criteria that would say to play Ole Miss based on it.

 

[olemiss33]

Do people still use "trends" like this? I counted no less than 10 requirements that had to be met for this "trend" to come into play. Something like this is no way a predictor of the game and I can't imagine how this would provide any meaningful insight into the game. It's just looking at past results and searching for completely random facts and tying them together.

If people actually bet on a football game using this type of stuff, they won't win money long term. Absolutely nothing said there has any bearing on this football game, or the next game under the same scenario. IT. MEANS. NOTHING.

Maybe Ole Miss doesn't win this game. That's possible. But it won't be because of anything listed above.

 

[tmader7]

SEC and Olemiss, first off, history has a nasty reputation for repeating itself. There was a great article in the, hell, think it was December 9, but might have been 11, 2011 issue of ESPN the Mag, on the development of the "holy grail" of football predictions, bunch of guys in Vegas paid for the computer crunching, yada, yada, yada. Couple of touts involved, thank God Root wasn't one of them, but what you see above is what they paid top money for to develop. Roll Tide must have one hell of a database to put that stuff out the way he does, these guys spent millions on the info. Yeah, I look at that shit and say to myself, how could it possibly have any bearing on a game in October, 2014. But, I'm also a numbers kind of guy, and the numbers/stats don't lie. If 10 criteria, when met, lead to a 70% chance of winning a game, you can't pass on that, OR, you don't play. GLTBoth of ya, I'll be rooting for the Rebs, not gonna touch that one with even the piggy-bank full of pennies.

~T~

 

[jblonghorn]

This is cool, but on the "I'm a college football fan" front I just simply think this is a perfect spot for an upset. And people can call me crazy but it won't surprise me to see both Mississippi schools lose this weekend. My money will be on LSU though.

 

[Biz]

If people actually bet on a football game using this type of stuff, they won't win money long term. Absolutely nothing said there has any bearing on this football game, or the next game under the same scenario. IT. MEANS. NOTHING.

Maybe Ole Miss doesn't win this game. That's possible. But it won't be because of anything listed above.

It depends. A good system/angle can absolutely help a player win.

For me, this system has too many filters to be reliable. Also, not a huge number of plays. But....I can't argue with the results, despite the extremely limited number of occurrences.

A good system has enough plays to matter, and doesn't have so many filters that it isn't just data mining. Tide does an awesome job in his various threads, creating systems built on sound logic, a profitable winning history, and a sizable amount of plays.

I use systems similar to Tide's, and have had success using them for several years. Here is one of them for NCAAF:

- Play a dog from 3-14 points, that allows 85-114.5 yds/gm rushing, Not off a Bye (9 days or less since last game).

Now, some may call this data mining. I call it playing a dog that doesn't give up lots of rushing yardage. It meets my criteria:

- Enough plays. 251-151 (62.4%) over the past 10 years, averaging 40 plays/yr
- Logical. Stopping the run is an integral part of football, getting points is a bonus.
- 10 consecutive winning seasons. 18-8 so far this year.

This is a relatively simple system, that can be used regardless of the teams playing. One of the great things about playing systems is that it takes out any emotions and any other type of bias we may have. Its based solely on statistics and past history. 62.4%, 10 consecutive winning years. Ignore if you wish, but I've picked up a LOT of money playing teams that fit this system.

Here's one more:

Play ON a Road Dog of 6-38 points, that has not covered their last 2 or 3 games, with a low total (between 40-46)

Not covering creates line value, as the public hates betting on teams that don't cover. The low total suggest a low scoring game, so getting almost a TD or more in these spots is a plus.

72-36 the past 10 years (38-12 past 6 yrs), never a losing year.

I wouldn't advocate playing every system blindly, as other factors can come into play (injuries, etc..). However, I don't think you can just dismiss systems out of hand. Using a structured methodology with a history of success isn't the worst idea in the world.

 

[Salsantorre]

It depends. A good system/angle can absolutely help a player win.

For me, this system has too many filters to be reliable. Also, not a huge number of plays. But....I can't argue with the results, despite the extremely limited number of occurrences.

A good system has enough plays to matter, and doesn't have so many filters that it isn't just data mining. Tide does an awesome job in his various threads, creating systems built on sound logic, a profitable winning history, and a sizable amount of plays.

I use systems similar to Tide's, and have had success using them for several years. Here is one of them for NCAAF:

- Play a dog from 3-14 points, that allows 85-114.5 yds/gm rushing, Not off a Bye (9 days or less since last game).

Now, some may call this data mining. I call it playing a dog that doesn't give up lots of rushing yardage. It meets my criteria:

- Enough plays. 251-151 (62.4%) over the past 10 years, averaging 40 plays/yr
- Logical. Stopping the run is an integral part of football, getting points is a bonus.
- 10 consecutive winning seasons. 18-8 so far this year.

This is a relatively simple system, that can be used regardless of the teams playing. One of the great things about playing systems is that it takes out any emotions and any other type of bias we may have. Its based solely on statistics and past history. 62.4%, 10 consecutive winning years. Ignore if you wish, but I've picked up a LOT of money playing teams that fit this system.

Here's one more:

Play ON a Road Dog of 6-38 points, that has not covered their last 2 or 3 games, with a low total (between 40-46)

Not covering creates line value, as the public hates betting on teams that don't cover. The low total suggest a low scoring game, so getting almost a TD or more in these spots is a plus.

72-36 the past 10 years (38-12 past 6 yrs), never a losing year.

I wouldn't advocate playing every system blindly, as other factors can come into play (injuries, etc..). However, I don't think you can just dismiss systems out of hand. Using a structured methodology with a history of success isn't the worst idea in the world.

"
Biz, in the second scenario you say "in the last 2 or 3 games". Is that correct? Or should it be "2 OF 3 games?

 

[SoupNazi]

I'll preface my comments by saying that I am an OM fan and grad. I held season tix for OM football for 20 years before moving away last year and consider myself a homer of course. I read and watch everything I can about this team since I can no longer attend the games on a regular basis.

When it comes to wagering, I have to take the red and blue glasses off. I normally put a lot of credence in historical trends when wagering but this is one that I have to throw the trends out. The reason I don't look at trends with this years OM team is that this team is unlike any other team OM has had in 40+ years. This team has more talent than any others I have seen in my lifetime (I'm 47). Freeze could very well be the best coach to walk the sidelines in Oxford since John Vaught. He is only in his 3rd year as HC but what he has done with what he inherited 3 years ago is nothing short of amazing. The recruiting and the mentality that he instills in his players is so different than anything we've had in a coach in the last 4 decades. OM had become a punchline in the SEC more times than not for quite a long time and Freeze is on his way to change the culture of OM football. As long as he's the coach and continues the recruiting like he has, I'll ignore the historical trends up until 2011. Like so many of us OM fans have said lately, "this is not your dad's OM team". Freeze may fall on his face at OM but I'm not betting on it.

I don't try to talk people into betting one way or the other but just wanted to throw some comments out there from someone who has watched OM football for the last 30+ years to help make a good decision. He has shown me enough on the field to make me a believer.

 

[olemiss33]

Biz, those two(especially the first one), make much more sense. Basically, you are betting on a dog with a good run defense. I can see a system like that making sense.

But the one listed in the original post is absurd. How many teams average less than 50/ppg? That's basically everyone. And why an arbitrary number of allowing 17/ppg? Why not 14 or 20, or 16? Why 17?

Why a road favorite of 24 or less? Who chose that number and why? And how can someone compare a road favorite of 3 to one of 24? That's a 3 TD difference.

I mean, there are so many things there are completely irrelevant to anything that matters. Again, Ole Miss may not win the game. As jblonghorn said, this game could easily be an "upset", although I don't know that -3 is really an upset. I mean, LSU has lost 4 games in Tiger Stadium under Miles. This is only the 4th time since 09 they have been a dog in Tiger Stadium. I just don't think it would be a huge upset if they were to win the game.

All that being said, Im BIG on Ole Miss this game. I just don't see how LSU scores enough to stay in this game. They have played two good football teams, and were run off the field both times. The kids are 100% ready to play, and certainly won't be overlooking LSU. Outside of it being in Tiger Stadium at night, there is nothing LSU has done this year that would give them the advantage here.

If you want a trend that, IMO, is much more relevant in this game, here it is: Ole Miss is 9-1 in it's last 10 trips to BR. Ole Miss is 14-6 in their last 20 with LSU. If you go back over the last 6 games at TS, LSU is normally ranked in the Top 10. In most of the years(excluding 08), Ole Miss was a shitty football team. Two of those season Ole Miss won 2 or less SEC games. Yet, they lost games in BR over that time by 1, 3, 3, 7, and 6. The point is Ole Miss always plays well there, and I don't expect this game to be different.

 

[AcesandFaces]

Do people still use "trends" like this? I counted no less than 10 requirements that had to be met for this "trend" to come into play. Something like this is no way a predictor of the game and I can't imagine how this would provide any meaningful insight into the game. It's just looking at past results and searching for completely random facts and tying them together.

These "angles" are not trends; each of these angles make a very tight "system" which is totally different than a trend and in my opinion very correlative and useful. A trend is : "LSU has covered ATS 7 out of the last 8 home games" or "LSU is 8-1 ATS as a dog at night"....neither one of these has ANYTHING to do with what will happen in their game vs. Ole Miss.

A "System" is independent of a specific team and the more angles that make up the system, the "tighter" or more effective the system is. There are 7 filters or tighteners with this one.....and it's damn effective; regardless of the teams playing.

This is the single most powerful system I know of in College Football and typically only produces one or two plays a year because of all the filters/requirements/tighteners that must be met.

Good conversation..

 

[AcesandFaces]

From Biz: But....I can't argue with the results, despite the extremely limited number of occurrences.

Again...this is what makes this particular system SO EFFECTIVE....it has so many filters (which is a good thing) and it happens so rarely (which is also a good thing) and it wins SO much.....which is all that matters.

Systems are far more meaningful and powerful than trends.

 

[AcesandFaces]

From Biz: But....I can't argue with the results, despite the extremely limited number of occurrences.

Again...this is what makes this particular system SO EFFECTIVE....it has so many filters (which is a good thing) and it happens so rarely (which is also a good thing) and it wins SO much.....which is all that matters.

Systems are far more meaningful and powerful than trends.

 

[AcesandFaces]

If people actually bet on a football game using this type of stuff, they won't win money long term. Absolutely nothing said there has any bearing on this football game, or the next game under the same scenario. IT. MEANS. NOTHING.

Maybe Ole Miss doesn't win this game. That's possible. But it won't be because of anything listed above.

They do win money long term SPECIFICALLY with SYSTEMS like this. I have a great amount of respect for you and your ability to pick winners. I just posted this System because it has been the single most selective and profitable system in NCAAF that I have ever seen and used. Hope the Rebs win straight up for you and the Tigers get the cash ATS...then we're both smiling.