Decided to share my thoughts on how I envision Game 4 to be played this evening. Much of what I will discuss is applicable to the series in general as well. I will touch upon the player match-ups, coaching match-ups, situational intangibles, injuries, and the current line for this game.
So let's begin with the player match-ups. For tonight's game, fully expect the Laker game plan to center around O'Neal as for the last 3 days most of the discussion has been about how few touches the big man received in Game 3, while the surrounding cast, including Bryant, were putting up too many ill advised shots. Expect Bryant to attempt to penetrate and either attack the rim, if open, or dish off to either O'Neal, Malone or any of the support cast that might be open on the perimeter. Malone is key as depending on his knee, he may be able to hit the open 15 footer but will be limited in his ability to defend as well as elevate to rebound. Payton verbally stated after Game 2 that he had completely lost his confidence and Game 3 only reinforced his behavior. He is not shooting well and does not match-up well with the Piston guards. George brings very little to the game as his shooting is suspect, particularly on the road, and at times can be a defensive liability. Off the bench, the Lakers will bring in a less then healthy Fisher a decent shooter in Rush, a young Walton with good basketball sense, but who after Game 2, is no longer a surprise and Medvedenko, who is a liability both offensively and defensively.
Detroit brings a full compliment of healthy personnel and a deeper bench. Expect the Pistons to continue to look for Hamilton on the cuts around screens, Wallace down low on the block, Prince on the perimeter as well as driving to the hoop and Billups both through penetration as well as spot up jumpers. B. Wallace will bring his usual energy on the boards as well as shot blocking. Off the bench, the Pistons rotate in Williamson for inside work as well as short jumpers, Campbell to do the same as well as work against O'Neal, Hunter to spell Billups and provide defensive quickness with steals and Okur and Ham to add more depth.
The play in this series has been pretty consistent and since Malone re-injured his knee in Game 2, the Pistons have controlled the last 6 quarters. Basically, in looking carefully at the starting line-ups, the Pistons have been playing 5 on 2 and their bench has outperformed the Laker reserves.
Now, that being said, we should address the situational intangible of the Lakers being in the "must win" position. In sports, care must be taken when evaluating this situation. There is no doubt that one can expect the Lakers to come with all their intensity tonight, but whether or not that will be sufficient to win is questionable. It is easier to take a game in this situation when the team is healthy, playing solid, playing at home, and match-up well. In this particular case, the Lakers have none of these things going for them. Agree that O'Neal and Bryant will bring all that they have, but they are facing an uphill battle in this situation and certainly will not find things easy in trying to secure the win. The Lakers are facing a Piston team that is playing like champions. They are a cohesive unit, that believes in their ability to match-up with the Lakers, believe in their head coach, are not over confident even though they could very well be up 3-0, and remain focused on the task at hand.
Which leads to other intangibles. Expect full intensity from the Lakers with the 2 days of preparation and duly acknowledge O'Neal's improved play on 2 days between games, but fully expect Pistons to have no let down as the extra day will allow them to put Game 3 behind them and should bring the same level of play bolstered by a raucious home crowd that once again will lift their level of play.
As for the coaching, a comment needs to be said about both Jackson and Brown. Past history has shown that Jackson makes excellent game to game adjustments, but what isn't always noticed is that many of those adjustments were accomplished using a healthier and deeper team when facing teams with a particular player or two who could be taken out of their game with defensive adjustments. The Pistons don't fit this mold as they are both balanced and deep and slowing down any one player doesn't stop them from attacking and playing defense. Jackson has done a great job in the last couple of days in the press by pointing out the difference in fouls between the Lakers and Pistons which has not allowed the Lakers to play the defense the Pistons have due to being called for fouls. Kudos to him for calling this out as tonight this will surely become a factor and one must expect the foul calling to be more balanced which could result in more of the key front line Piston players getting into foul trouble. Jackson is well aware that he cannot make player adjustments in this series, but if he can get the Pistons in foul trouble, the Lakers have a chance of winning even though expect O'Neal to struggle with free throws on the road. But a mounting total number of fouls will help the other Lakers. As for Brown, in my opinion, he has outcoached Jackson in this series as he has not only made excellent tactical in game offensive and defensive adjustments, but used time-outs and set up plays beautifully to keep his team sharp at all times.
Now as to the current line on this game. Truly believe that if this game did not include the Laker name and past year's reputation, Detroit would be favored by between 4 and 5, particularly in light of the play of the first 3 games in this series. Plus, at the moment, money is currently beginning to come in on the Lakers due to the "must win" scenario. When you look at the first 3 games, the Pistons have been very consistent by scoring 87, 89 (in regulation), and 88 points while the Lakers have scored 75, 89 (in regulation), and 68. Fully expect that the Laker intensity, most probably an adjustment in the foul calling, and the importance of the game will increase the Laker scoring above Game 3, but not to the level of Game 2, which was a needed game at home following a Game 1 loss. This game being on the road and just as important for the Pistons, who I believe will withstand any Laker push and slowly grind toward their consistent score behind their wild home crowd should result in a win for the Pistons. Expect a closer game then Game 3, but envision Detroit prevailing by somewhere between 3 and 7 points. My money will be on the Pistons as it has been for each of the first three games and will most probably be in Game 5 as well.
Those are my thoughts. Best of luck to everyone tonight.
[This message was edited by oldmanTED on June 13, 2004 at 05:57 PM.]
So let's begin with the player match-ups. For tonight's game, fully expect the Laker game plan to center around O'Neal as for the last 3 days most of the discussion has been about how few touches the big man received in Game 3, while the surrounding cast, including Bryant, were putting up too many ill advised shots. Expect Bryant to attempt to penetrate and either attack the rim, if open, or dish off to either O'Neal, Malone or any of the support cast that might be open on the perimeter. Malone is key as depending on his knee, he may be able to hit the open 15 footer but will be limited in his ability to defend as well as elevate to rebound. Payton verbally stated after Game 2 that he had completely lost his confidence and Game 3 only reinforced his behavior. He is not shooting well and does not match-up well with the Piston guards. George brings very little to the game as his shooting is suspect, particularly on the road, and at times can be a defensive liability. Off the bench, the Lakers will bring in a less then healthy Fisher a decent shooter in Rush, a young Walton with good basketball sense, but who after Game 2, is no longer a surprise and Medvedenko, who is a liability both offensively and defensively.
Detroit brings a full compliment of healthy personnel and a deeper bench. Expect the Pistons to continue to look for Hamilton on the cuts around screens, Wallace down low on the block, Prince on the perimeter as well as driving to the hoop and Billups both through penetration as well as spot up jumpers. B. Wallace will bring his usual energy on the boards as well as shot blocking. Off the bench, the Pistons rotate in Williamson for inside work as well as short jumpers, Campbell to do the same as well as work against O'Neal, Hunter to spell Billups and provide defensive quickness with steals and Okur and Ham to add more depth.
The play in this series has been pretty consistent and since Malone re-injured his knee in Game 2, the Pistons have controlled the last 6 quarters. Basically, in looking carefully at the starting line-ups, the Pistons have been playing 5 on 2 and their bench has outperformed the Laker reserves.
Now, that being said, we should address the situational intangible of the Lakers being in the "must win" position. In sports, care must be taken when evaluating this situation. There is no doubt that one can expect the Lakers to come with all their intensity tonight, but whether or not that will be sufficient to win is questionable. It is easier to take a game in this situation when the team is healthy, playing solid, playing at home, and match-up well. In this particular case, the Lakers have none of these things going for them. Agree that O'Neal and Bryant will bring all that they have, but they are facing an uphill battle in this situation and certainly will not find things easy in trying to secure the win. The Lakers are facing a Piston team that is playing like champions. They are a cohesive unit, that believes in their ability to match-up with the Lakers, believe in their head coach, are not over confident even though they could very well be up 3-0, and remain focused on the task at hand.
Which leads to other intangibles. Expect full intensity from the Lakers with the 2 days of preparation and duly acknowledge O'Neal's improved play on 2 days between games, but fully expect Pistons to have no let down as the extra day will allow them to put Game 3 behind them and should bring the same level of play bolstered by a raucious home crowd that once again will lift their level of play.
As for the coaching, a comment needs to be said about both Jackson and Brown. Past history has shown that Jackson makes excellent game to game adjustments, but what isn't always noticed is that many of those adjustments were accomplished using a healthier and deeper team when facing teams with a particular player or two who could be taken out of their game with defensive adjustments. The Pistons don't fit this mold as they are both balanced and deep and slowing down any one player doesn't stop them from attacking and playing defense. Jackson has done a great job in the last couple of days in the press by pointing out the difference in fouls between the Lakers and Pistons which has not allowed the Lakers to play the defense the Pistons have due to being called for fouls. Kudos to him for calling this out as tonight this will surely become a factor and one must expect the foul calling to be more balanced which could result in more of the key front line Piston players getting into foul trouble. Jackson is well aware that he cannot make player adjustments in this series, but if he can get the Pistons in foul trouble, the Lakers have a chance of winning even though expect O'Neal to struggle with free throws on the road. But a mounting total number of fouls will help the other Lakers. As for Brown, in my opinion, he has outcoached Jackson in this series as he has not only made excellent tactical in game offensive and defensive adjustments, but used time-outs and set up plays beautifully to keep his team sharp at all times.
Now as to the current line on this game. Truly believe that if this game did not include the Laker name and past year's reputation, Detroit would be favored by between 4 and 5, particularly in light of the play of the first 3 games in this series. Plus, at the moment, money is currently beginning to come in on the Lakers due to the "must win" scenario. When you look at the first 3 games, the Pistons have been very consistent by scoring 87, 89 (in regulation), and 88 points while the Lakers have scored 75, 89 (in regulation), and 68. Fully expect that the Laker intensity, most probably an adjustment in the foul calling, and the importance of the game will increase the Laker scoring above Game 3, but not to the level of Game 2, which was a needed game at home following a Game 1 loss. This game being on the road and just as important for the Pistons, who I believe will withstand any Laker push and slowly grind toward their consistent score behind their wild home crowd should result in a win for the Pistons. Expect a closer game then Game 3, but envision Detroit prevailing by somewhere between 3 and 7 points. My money will be on the Pistons as it has been for each of the first three games and will most probably be in Game 5 as well.
Those are my thoughts. Best of luck to everyone tonight.
[This message was edited by oldmanTED on June 13, 2004 at 05:57 PM.]
