Oldmans Picks For Tuesday 2/17/04

[oldmanTED]

Writing this thread early because I will be away tomorrow and probably won't be back before tip-off of the first game. Coming off a 1-0 night winning another strong 3* play on Oklahoma State that was very difficult for me to bump given the current trend of conference road favorites struggling to even win a game outright. Back with two plays today.

1* Michigan State -5
1* Georgia +4

Overall Unit Record YTD: (115-90.3) 56.02% 5*(1-0)(+5.0) 3*(10-4)(+16.8) 1*(80-70-3)(+2.9)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (91-74-3) 55.15%
NCAAB Record YTD: (45-50-1)(-6.2)
NBA Record YTD: (11-4-1)(+8.6)
NCAAF Record YTD: (21-8)(+22.0) (Final Bowl Game Record 19-8 Included)
NFL Record YTD: (14-12-1)(+0.3)

Plays are rated 1*-5*

Good Luck All.

 

[Kodiak7]

good luck.. may the homecourt advantage be with you!

 

[oldmanTED]

Kodiak7:

Thank you. See you have been doing well also. Home court has been absolutely on fire lately as these teams drive for births in their conference tournament and the Big Dance. Continued good luck to you.

 

[Kojak]

oldmanted,

I see we agree on Georgia for tomorrow. After OSU today, I might have to make that my play of the day. Georgia wins straight up. Best of luck.

 

[oldmanTED]

Kojak:

That's great news. Let's see if we can share another victory again tomorrow. Continued good luck.

 

[SportSavant]

wow, another 2-0 day for Oldman ted...

had my best day of 2004 today!!! going 4-0 in my RX NHL Plays, 1-0 in my RX NBA plays, & 2-0 with My Local on NHL bets that are not widely available so I didnt post them...

I had lost line value with Mich state so I did a ML Parlay with them & Ottawa which kinda hit as Ottawa tied....

Since saw that I was already up big for the day I decided to Play Georgia & the georgia 2nd half...both winners!!!! which brings the day up to 9-0 the only thing I lost was the juice on two middle attempts...if they had both hit it would have been my best day ever

 

[Kojak]

oldmanted,

Great job! Keep up the great work and was glad we were both on Georgia as it saved my night. Best of luck tomorrow!

 

[oldmanTED]

Savant:

Thank you. Congratulations on a huge day in the NHL, NBA, and NCAAB. Great to see you jumped in on Georgia for both the game and 2nd half. Continued good luck in the future.

 

[oldmanTED]

Kojak:

Was thinking about you and hoping you had made Georgia your play of the day. Glad we could share the win again today. Let's see if we can continue the streak tomorrow.

 

[BlackampGold]

Ted - Great job tonight. I was on the losing end of the Florida game. You are so right about these power conference road favorites. Roberson shouldn't have even suited up for this one. Glad you were a winner tonight!

 

[oldmanTED]

B&G:

Thank you. I'm sorry to see you were on Florida and that we didn't share in this win. As a fellow "team member"

, like to see us winning together. Maybe we'll be on the same side tomorrow. Good luck to you. I like your analysis style. Excellent!

 

[tigerclicks]

Nice night Ted!...I hope you feel as good as I do about not losing any juice!...Good luck tomorrow!

 

[oldmanTED]

tigerclicks:

Thank you. Yes! The fewer the plays the lower the vig. Hopefully, things continue nicely tomorrow. Keep it going.

 

[SportSavant]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> The fewer the plays the lower the vig <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

ted I have been meaning to ask you about this philosophy...in another thread a while back I remember you mentioning the same thing...Myself I am a proponent of having a minimum amount of plays (although with my lack of discipline I often fail

)...anyway...at the end of the day is it not dependent on the winning percentage?...it cannot be a blanket rule that less plays are better...can it?

what I mean is this...if you take two cappers...one that plays 2 games a day & one that plays 10 games a day...& both cappers can consistently hit 55%...would the capper who hit's 10 games a day not win more money in the long run?

100$ a bet

Capper # 1 = 700 plays ber year (roughly 2 plays per day)
385 WIns = + 3850
315 losses = - 3465

Capper # 2 Plays 7000 plays for year
3850 Wins = + 38500
3150 loss = - 34650 in losses

Obviously capper # 2 does much better assuming the same percentage of bankroll is bet on each play...

If what you mean that the likelehood of hitting a higher percentage decreases the more plays you play, then of course...I understand...

 

[oldmanTED]

Savant:

Theorectically you are absolutely correct. However, success in this business and life in general comes through human behavior and practical reality. The practical reality is that the more plays that a handicapper makes the more difficult it is to maintain a winning and solid winning percentage. I'm sure that you have noticed that even the best handicappers on this forum find that the more plays they make the more difficult it is to succeed and they find themselves reducing the number of plays and units to try and maintain a winning edge. If you take a look at the overall record of many of the respected handicappers and apply a 10% vig, although I fully recognize that most get a reduced vig, you can see for yourself that the more plays one has, the more the narrowing effect of the overall profit. Take a sample and you will see how what appears to be a solid winning record has been reduced significantly by the vig. A handicapper that can win 55% or above after the vig has been included has done a very solid job indeed. Just remember from a practical view, every time one makes a straight play, they pay a percentage to the house for that play. Obviously moneylines and positive vig on straight plays can reduce the edge if successful. This business is not an absolute and human beings are quite infallible. The fewer times that we put ourselves in a position to make mistakes the more successful we can become. Food for thought.