Oldmans Picks For Tuesday 2/10/04

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Coming off a 2-0 day yesterday, winning with Oklahoma State in NCAAB and San Antonio in the NBA. Back today with three plays in NCAAB and one play that will be posted in the NBA forum. Note on the Kentucky game. I am aware that Gerald Fitch is questionable with a sprained finger and Brandon Stockman is questionable with the flu.

1* Kentucky -9
1* Michigan State +6.5
1* Georgia Tech -4

Overall Unit Record YTD: (99-77.1) 56.22% 5*(1-0)(+5.0) 3*(8-4)(+10.8) 1*(70-58-3)(+6.1)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (79-62-3) 56.03%
NCAAB Record YTD: (35-38-1)(-7.0)
NBA Record YTD: (9-4-1)(+6.6)
NCAAF Record YTD: (21-8)(+22.0) (Final Bowl Game Record 19-8 Included)
NFL Record YTD: (14-12-1)(+0.3)

Plays are rated 1*-5*

Good Luck All.
 

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For those who like Mr Ted's work Pinny currently has -9 +102 / + 6.5 -103

Who has G Tech -4?
 

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Oldman,
Most of the forum is loading up on Bama,but I think you might have the right side.Davis seems to have lost a lot of confidence and if he is not aggressive,Bama has no inside game.Shelton is so overrated it is ridiculous-now shooting 40% on the year.I expect a spirited effort from the Tide,but as we saw at BYU last night,a close game can quickly get out of hand.I see a similar scenario tonight.

Like Gt as well,but feel the Illini might break out tonight.

Good luck.
 

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Savant:

I got Georgia Tech an hour ago at WSEX. No longer available. I don't expect this line to move up and it very well could come back down. Recall the late action in a similiar situation on Saturday when North Carolina faced Wake Forest. Line was -4.5 nearly until game time and then a quick hit bringing it down to -3.5 and sure enough UNC won outright. Don't believe waiting will hurt here.
 

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Lowtide:

Nice to see you agree on Kentucky and Tech. With the Cats you always get consistent defense and hard play the entire game. Witness their play on the road in a huge win against Florida and their short handed win this past weekend over South Carolina. Wish that Fitch was playing, but still feel that the Cats discipline will wear down the Tide.

As for Illinois, duly respect talent and ability. This team has been slow coming together and may be getting it into gear at just the right time. That being said, the Spartans are playing at an extremely high level right now both offensively and defensively and are an extremely confident, well coached team right now. Been riding them and getting 6.5 seems like good value to me with a team playing so well fundamentally. Good shooting, strong rebounding and tight defense. Illinois may very well win and cover tonight, but I'll take the points tonight in this spot. Good luck to you tonight on your plays.
 

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ted I imagine you would say the +9 -102 & the + 6.5 -103 are attractive...

any feeling on wether or not you feel these can get better?
 

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Savant:

I think you meant -9 -102

To answer your question, yes they could get better as most action is currently on Alabama and Illinois. Once again, waiting here may not hurt. Please keep in mind that it is not easy to predict line movement and this oldman certainly has been caught many times through the years waiting for a number only to lose value and the win. It is my policy to move on a number once I am satisfied that I have value. Sometimes, I could have ended up with a better number and sometimes not. Once the game is capped and the number satisfactory to me, I make the play and don't look back. Everyone is different and there is no right or wrong way when deciding the time is right to move. Do what you are most comfortable with and stay consistent in doing so. Consistency will lead to success more than the line movement.
 

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no current line at pinny is -9 +102 (or you could buy it to -8.5 -108)

Tue 2/10 519 Alabama +9 -112 +365 OVER 131.5 -108
04:00 PM 520 Kentucky -9 +102 -415 UNDER 131.5 -108
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Please keep in mind that it is not easy to predict line movement and this oldman certainly has been caught many times through the years waiting for a number only to lose value and the win. It is my policy to move on a number once I am satisfied that I have value. Sometimes, I could have ended up with a better number and sometimes not. Once the game is capped and the number satisfactory to me, I make the play and don't look back <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

interesting discussion...I think I spend too much time trying to forecast the line movements...however if it something that one can become succesful it is certainly helpful. After all if you are right 55% of the time on which way a line will move it should help your overall win percentage.


I find in the case of a heavy favorite...especially if it is a late game...it is better to play early if you like the fav & last minute if you like the dog...especially if it is a public team like LAL.

As you say, however, lot's of time you will get burnt...
 

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Savant:

Agreed. Truly believe the single most important element to overall success is spending the time handicapping the game properly first, then shop for the line and, of course, always, always have proper money management for the long haul. I've seen some of the best in this business fail because they lacked strength in one or more of these areas. Good capper, but no money management tools. Excellent line shopper, but poor capping. Good money management but not enough time spent on handicapping. These games are played between the lines on the court. Many times one can over think the line and miss a solid play that has been well handicapped. Just some thoughts.
 

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Aloha Ted , well it had to happen again some time. I am just glad yesterday we had the same side as it was a Big play for me. Today we are together on one and opposite on another. I do like your Kentucky play as I do not have any confidence with this Bama team without Shelton in the lineup. Good luck today and Aloha CC.
 

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Captain:

Regarding the Kentucky game, expect Shelton to be in the lineup. Just wanted to let you know in the event you are considering a play on this game. Gerald Fitch is questionable for Kentucky with a sprain finger and Brandon Stockman is questionable with the flu. Information I wanted to share.
 

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Thanks Ted for the heads up. I am laying off of this one. But my source still has Shelton out indefinately. Good thing I am not playing this one. GL to you with it though. Aloha Again.
 

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Ted,
Wanted your thoughts on betting unit systems.I see you use a 1-5 system.I have tightened my system and use 1-4 units to rate my plays.In the past,I used a larger scale but I found I was betting on too many inferior plays.I see a lot of posters bet 5,10,20,etc.To me,this person is using a nickel unit and is still using a 1 to 4 or 5 system.Of course,the more units you post, the more attractive your picks become to the average reader.Anyway,wanted to know if you have always used the same scale and what your recommendations are.
 

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Low Tide:

Sorry for the delayed response as I stepped away for a few hours. I always try to get back to my thread and respond to any questions that a fellow poster might ask.

Yes, it is true I use a rated system of 1 to 5 units which is equivalent to 1% to 5% of my overall bankroll. I did not start out this way as it has taken me all of 30+ years to be comfortable with a varied method. When I first began, I used a flat 1 unit or 1% per play. As my experience increased, I began to vary between 1 and 2 unit plays followed by 1 to 3 unit plays and then finally the current 1 to 5 units which I have been using for approximately the last 15 years. I am a firm believer that to be successful over the long haul a player must establish a bankroll, preferably separate from all other living expenses. Once the bankroll is established, using a flat percentage or a varied percentage maintains discipline and protects the bankroll from being depleted. The tighter the percentage used, the more the bankroll and player are protected. As the bankroll grows, the percentage can remain the same but the amount wagered would increase. Likewise, if the bankroll shrinks, the percentage can remain the same but the amount wagered would decrease.

Your observation regarding the various units that posters present is astute. There is no way that any of us know how much the actual dollar amount one is wagering per unit. For instance a 1 unit play for one poster might be a dime while a 10 unit play for another poster may also be a dime as their base unit value may be a dollar. That is why the amount of units won or lost can be misleading to the reader. I could easily use 10 units as my base play and it would appear that I am currently ahead 219 units. Clearly, that would attract more readers and make my results look better. One thing I am certain of is that there is a wide variation in these forums as to the actual value of any single posters unit. It is of value to look at a poster's win percentage as this provides even better insight. A poster that can win at a rate between 55%-60% over the course of a season has done an excellent job and with proper money management made a nice profit. So, the reader should view the units won or lost with caution but rather look at the percentage won or lost to know how well a poster is performing. I try to show the reader both as this is exactly how I wager. When I show 1 unit, it is 1% of my current bankroll and when I show the percentage, it is the actual overall percentage too date. You may also notice that I have only released one 5 unit play. These are truly rare for me as I only release approximately a half dozen of these over an entire year. The 3 unit plays are strong plays for me and you will notice that I have released only 12 out of 141 plays too date. The remainder are 1 unit plays. It has taken me years to become comfortable knowing when I feel a strong or rare play is warranted. Realize that a 5 unit play is 5 times the dollar amount of a 1 unit play, so caution is in order here. Likewise, a 3 unit play is 3 times the value of a 1 unit play.

As to my recommendation. If you are making a lot of plays and find that you may be making inferior plays, then you might want to consider a flat 1% wager to protect your bankroll. If you have discipline and are comfortable and confident enough to vary your plays and feel that you can tell the difference between a strong play and a regular play, you might consider dropping back a bit and using 1 to 3 units as your variation. Remember, there is nothing wrong with erroring on the conservative side. But, if you haven't establish your bankroll, please try your best to do so. You won't regret doing it and I promise you that it will help you be more successful over the long haul.

I hope that I have provided some answers to your questions and apologize for the delayed response. Please feel free to inquire any time you have a question and I will try my best to share my experience with you and help however I can. I wish you much success as you work through your money management. The mere fact that you realize that it is needed is a huge step in the right direction. Good luck to you in the future.
 

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Ted..........

awesome writeup! thanks for all the hard work, and continued success!
1036316054.gif
 

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THEBUFFROCK:

Your welcome. It's my pleasure. Love sharing with fellow posters. Continued success to you as well in the future.
 

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I appreciate the response,Ted.I know it was time consuming.So far this year,I am hitting 56% and up 33 units.I have been very disciplined over the last 6 weeks,but I have not built up a sufficient bankroll so that one unit represents 1% so I will work towards that goal.

Once again,your time and insight are much appreciated.
 

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Low Tide:

Continued good luck. At 56%, you're doing great. Just continue what you are doing and success is inevitable.
 

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Wanted to be the first to chime in with a
applaudit.gif
on the Kentucky game....

The +102 Pinnacle gave on the spread was sweet aswell....halleluliah
 

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