Oldmans Picks For Sunday 1/11/04

[oldmanTED]

Coming off a 5-3 day, going 3-1 in the NFL and 2-2 in college hoops. Once again we have interesting match-ups for the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. So let's get to our analysis and selections for the first game between Indianapolis and Kansas City. We'll be back later today with the second game between Green Bay and Philadelphia.

Indianapolis vs Kansas City

Indianapolis offensively features QB Peyton Manning throwing for 273 yards per game, 68% completion rate with a 34-10 TD to interception ratio and a QB rating of 103.3. The offensive line allowed only 19 sacks. The running game features Edgerrin James who rushed for 95 yards per game with a 4.1 yards per carry average. Marvin Harrison with 101 receptions and 13.9 yards per catch, Reggie Wayne with 73 receptions and 12.1 yards per catch, and TE Marcus Pollard with 41 receptions and 13.8 yards per catch lead the wide receiving corp. James added 58 receptions and 5.9 yards per carry as well. The offense will face a Kansas City defense allowing 4.9 yards per carry on the ground and 226 yards per game on 59% completions with a 19-25 TD to interception ratio while collecting 36 sacks and allowing 36.6% third down efficiency. The Kansas City offense is led by QB Trent Green throwing for 252 yards per game, 63% completion rate with a 24-12 TD to interception ratio and a QB rating of 116.2. The offensive line allowed only 21 sacks and the Chiefs have a 41.8% third down efficiency. The running game features Priest Holmes who rushed for 115 yards per game with a 5.2 yards per carry average. Eddie Kennison with 56 receptions and 15.2 yards per catch, Johnnie Morton with 30 receptions and 14.8 yards per catch, and TE Tony Gonzalez with 71 receptions and 12.9 yards per catch lead the receiving corp. This offense will face an Indianapolis defense allowing 4.6 yards per carry on the ground and 189 yards per game on 63% completions with a 19-17 TD to interception ratio while collecting 33 sacks and allowing an opponent QB rating of 81.3. Indianapolis special teams are average accept for kicker Mike Vanderjagt who made all of his 39 field goal attempts. The punting and return elements are nothing special and provide no field advantage. The Kansas City special teams are very good featuring Dante Hall on returns and kicker Morten Anderson converted 80% of his field goal attempts. Punter Jason Baker had a net average of 33.2 yards. Feeling here is that both teams will be able to move the ball and put points on the board. Kansas City should be able to run and pass successfully without much restriction. Indianapolis should also be able to run and pass but perhaps with not quite to same level of consistency. The reason being that Arrowhead Stadium is an extremely loud stadium. Expect this to somewhat interfere with the audibles that Manning will attempt to call as well as cause the offensive line to have a number of false starts. Duly respect Colts team led by Manning and the effort put forth last week at home against Denver. Belief here is that the Colts will find this particular road location in this playoff situation much more difficult. Futhermore, cannot understate the effectiveness of the Kansas City offensive line. They are extremely good at run blocking as well as pass protection. Just don't see the Colts being able to stop this unit. Hence,

1* Kansas City -3
1* Kansas City/Indianapolis Over 50.5


Overall Unit Record YTD: (65-44.1) 59.58% 5*(1-0)(+5.0) 3*(6-3)(+8.1) 1*(42-31-2)(+7.8)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (49-34-2) 59.04%
NFL Record YTD: (9-8-1)(-4.3)
NCAAF Record YTD: (21-8)(+22.0) (Final Bowl Game Record 19-8 Included)
NBA Record YTD: (5-4)(+2.6)
NCAAB Record YTD: (14-14-1)(+0.6)

Plays are rated 1*-5*

Good Luck All. Check back later for analysis and selections for Green Bay vs Philadelphia.

 

[Co-Captain]

Good Lock Today Ted! Aloha CC.

 

[GLJJNOVA]

Oldman, I think you are much wiser than me, but isn't 51 a big total to reach in a big game like this? Maybe they play ball control to keep each others offense off the feild, no?

Good Luck
Gary

 

[SSI]

sorry ted, ive got Colts +3 (even). undecided on 2nd game as of now.. good luck on that over..

 

[oldmanTED]

Captain:

Thank you and as always good luck to you today as well on all your plays.

 

[oldmanTED]

SSI:

Good luck today with the Colts. Be back with my write-up on the second game shortly.

 

[oldmanTED]

Garry_Philly:

Although on the surface the total of 50.5 (now 52.5) seems difficult to surpass, with each of these teams expected to be able to move the ball into scoring position both on the ground and through the air, reaching a score of 27-24 is not without the realm of possibilities. I expect Holmes and Green and Manning and Harrison to all have solid days today so I leaned to over the total. Keep in mind that I rated the play as 1* which is not a strong play for me, but the fundamentals still warrant the play. Good luck today in whatever you decide to do.

 

[justwinbaby]

Ted -

Once again I strayed from your pick yesterday in the St.L/Caro game and paid the price. Gave Martz more credit than I should have. I had been leaning toward Indy in this game but think I have been over critical of the Chiefs (probably because that is my team). You have swayed me in the other direction so at least it will be easier to cheer for them.
Can't wait for the GB/Philly picks.

Thanks
JWB

 

[oldmanTED]

JWB:

I hope we can win this one together. If you want to know my selections for the Green Bay/Philadelphia game, you can find it in RX Scorekeeper Contest thread for those being monitored. My write-up will follow when the traffic on the forum lightens up a little. Good luck today.

 

[SportSavant]

good afternoon Ted, SSI,

I decided to go with Under 53 +105 (intertops)...just for some pizza money however, didnt really have a strong feeling, just felt the line was too attractive to ignore.

Here is hoping it ends at 51 or 52

 

[oldmanTED]

Savant:

Good luck today. Once again, thanks for bumping my thread on "Money Management-Middle to Advanced Levels" the other day. Not sure why you did it, but appreciate that you did and hope that other posters found it of value.

 

[SportSavant]

mr ted,

I was reading hansen's thread where he had a large winning percentage, but had lost money this year due to no money management & lack of conviction in his own plays...I like him & many others here am simply using this forum to try to learn....I also struggle from the same afflictions that hansen does....thought that the money management thread may be very useful...I have started a website which is simply my avatar name dot com. No flash or BS there (I am not a web geek) simply some articles to help newbies with the basics on sports gambling (mind you with the office have not had much time to work on it as of late...with your permission I would love to paste your article on my site...Of course you would be mentioned as the author...let me know what u think...

p.s

enjoy the game.

 

[oldmanTED]

Savant:

Feel free to use my article however you wish. I'm flattered that you would even consider doing such a thing. Wish you all the best with your new web site.

 

[DIRECTVPOLICE]

KC's Defence makes me sick

What a joke

 

[oldmanTED]

As promised, back with my analysis and selection for the second game today between Green Bay and Philadelphia.

Philadelphia offensively features QB Donovan McNabb throwing for 201 yards per game, 57.5% completion rate with a 16-11 TD to interception ratio and a QB rating of 79.8. The offensive line allowed 43 sacks and the Eagles have a 36% third down efficiency. The running game features Duce Staley who rushed for 4.8 yards per carry and Correll Buckhalter who rushed for 4.3 yards per carry. The Eagles suffered a big blow losing Brian Westbrook who brought speed and power to their running game. James Thrash with 49 receptions and 11.4 yards per catch, Todd Pinkston with 38 receptions and 16.0 yards per catch, and Freddie Mitchell with 35 receptions and 14.2 yards per catch lead the receiving corp but once again the loss of Westbrook with 37 receptions and 9.0 yards per catch hurts. The Philadelphia offense will face a Green Bay defense allowing 4.0 yards per carry on the ground and 230 yards per game on 55% completions with a 18-22 TD to interception ratio while collecting 35 sacks and a solid QB rating of 68.9. The Green Bay offense features QB Brett Favre throwing for 218 yards per game, 66% completion rate with a 33-21 TD to interception ratio and a QB rating of 91.3. The offensive line allowed only 16 sacks. The running game features Ahman Green who rushed for 115 yards per game with a 5.2 yards per carry average. Donald Driver with 58 receptions and 11.8 yards per catch and Jason Walker with 46 receptions and 18.0 yards per catch lead the receiving corp. Green adds 55 receptions and 7.5 yards per catch. The Green Bay offense will face a Philadelphia defense allowing 4.5 yards per carry on the ground and 218 yards per game on 60% completions with a a 17-13 TD to interception ratio while collecting 36 sacks and allowing 35% third down conversion efficiency. The Eagles special teams are solid with punter Dirk Johnson having a net average of 34.6 yards and place kicker David Akers hitting 83% of his field goal attempts but the return teams are hurt once again by the loss of Westbrook. The Packers special teams are solid with punter Josh Bidwell having a net average of 35.1 yards and place kicker Ryan Longwell hitting 90% of his field goal attempts. The return teams provide good field position. Feeling here is that these teams should be able to move the ball against each other providing opportunities to put points on the board. Philadelphia, however, has suffered some very important injuries with the loss of Brian Westbrook on offense and on defense with the loss of key LB Emmons and a less than healthy CB Vincent. These losses play right into the strength of Green Bay. The Eagles defense has had great difficulty stopping the run particularly following these injuries and that is the Packers strength. Favre should be able to use play action successfully against a wounded secondary. Expect the Eagles to do some damage as well as the Packer defense is not stout but decent. This game is my strongest game of the weekend. My feeling is the fundamentals actually favor Green Bay to win outright in this game and the injuries only compound the difficulties for Philadelphia. Being an underdog and getting points after losing to the Eagles in a rain soaked, mistake filled game early in the year, only provides more focus for the Packers, Hence,

3* Green Bay +6 (Locked in earlier in the week)
1* Green Bay/Philadelphia Over 42.

Good Luck All.

 

[oldmanTED]

DirectTV Police:

Classy comment! Feel free to post your own thread providing the forum with your insight and selections for all to monitor.

 

[JonT95]

I like GB too, although I should have got it earlier. I have +4.5. I have the overs in the KC/Indy game as well. GL Ted!

 

[oldmanTED]

Jont95:

Great to have you along for both plays. Good luck to you throughout the day.

 

[SSI]

ted, good luck in the gb/philly game, i decided to pass on it altogether, i am not kidding when i say that i won so much on the colts that i just want to relax and enjoy the day.. kinda like jack mckeon lighting his victory cigar.. i feel that you went against the best in that colts game, when you went against payton. i wish you luck in the 2nd game,,, i noticed however that you did butt the 2 plays out in the first game,,, ive made extremely big plays on USC, LSU and the colts today.. talk with you later, i do however have 3 more nba games going, with toronto cashing in that first one.

 

[oldmanTED]

SSI:

Congratulations on your win today. Also, glad to hear you are starting to make some larger plays. Good luck with your NBA plays today. I have 3 college hoop games today that I like. Enjoy!