Oldmans Picks For Saturday 9/11/04

[oldmanTED]

Decided to post these plays early as some line movement has already occured and fully expect it to continue up until game time. Lines posted are as I played them. Will keep an eye out for any possible weather affect from Hurricane Ivan in the event a buy back is warranted. Expect these will be my only plays for the week. Hence,

1* Mississippi State +13
1* South Carolina +8.5
1* Alabama -10

NCAAF Record YTD: (5-2)(+2.80)

Plays are rated 1*-5*.

Good Luck All.

Edited record to reflect win by Miami last night.

 

[oldirtyku]

Ted,

Do u like Alabama or just betting against miss? Or both. Second week I have seen you go against them.

Thanks,
Ku

 

[oldmanTED]

oldirtyku:

Both!

 

[LowTide]

Ted,

Glad to see you are still posting.

Bama should handle the Rebels-their freshman receivers are for real and there is plenty of talent and depth to replace Shaud Williams in the backfield. An improved secondary and a solid linebacking corps should be able to contain Spurlock.

As for Auburn and Mississippi State-

Despite the concerns about Auburn's new offense(has Jason Campbell ever made good decisions in any Auburn offense? not IMO) and the personnel losses on defense, I still think there is a significant gap in the overall talent of these two teams. With Williams and Brown in the AU backfield and an inexperienced MSU quarterback, I will be playing Auburn -12.5.

Anyway,who cares what I think. Good luck on your plays and I wish you all the best with your health.

 

[LSUpete]

I just don't understand what people see in Bama. Is it Brodie Croyle? It must be, because this team really sucked last year, and with the lack of depth, I can't back them as a 10 point favorite against a team with Ole Miss' offense.

Bama beat up on a shitty team from a weaker conference....that's all. Now they're a 10 point favorite in their SEC opener? You guys better wake up.

 

[IDENTITY]

ted - you betting sec this week for any particular reason?

 

[oldmanTED]

Identity:

No! Just turned out that these are the games that I am comfortable with this week.

 

[truelyhandicapping]

GOOD LUCK OMT

 

[Mr.Leisure]

Like miss. st.and ala.,pass on south car.
Hope you have three winners!

 

[Kapusta]

Dzadziu-On Miss St. as well good luck to us!

 

[escrow]

I'm just bumping this up from page 3 because TED knows.

TED I would like to know where you sit with the line moves?

GLTU all season long.

escrow

 

[oldmanTED]

Escrow:

Not sure I fully understand your question, can you be more specific?

 

[escrow]

Sure, do you think that the line value is gone, or more directly, what do you think about Miss St and Alabama at their current lines. In your opinion, is there any value left in either of these?

Thanks and GL

 

[oldmanTED]

Escrow:

Mississippi State is currently now as high as +13.5 at some outs and I wouldn't be surprised to see it go to +14 as many believe the talent level of the Tigers is far superior to the Bulldogs. Plenty of value on this one, but you must decide if the line were to move back below +13, whether you would want to buy or be comfortable.

As for Alabama, the line has moved as high as -12, but in most outs is -11.5. Line value has definitely been lost here as no longer is -11 a win. Whenever, I play a double digit favorite, I try to account for a possible backdoor cover. Thus, at the moment, a backdoor touchdown added to the line means Alabama would have to win by 18.5 or 19 to cover the backdoor. A lot to ask and puts the player at greater risk. Care should be taken at this point.

 

[escrow]

Thanks Ted, this was exactly the kind of reply I wanted. You' a good man!

 

[oldmanTED]

Unfortunately, got our head handed to us with Auburn dominating Mississippi State. Hopefully, the site being down saved money for some.

Would feel remiss if I didn't now mention that an excellent opportunity has presented itself to those who chose to take South Carolina early. Lines have dropped enough now where Georgia is as low as -5.5. This presents opportunities to middle at 6,7 & 8, a rarity indeed to be able to possibly land on 3 key numbers. The choice is yours to buy back all or part and try to win both ways. Whatever you decide, as always best of luck to everyone.

 

[LSUpete]

excellent opportunity.

 

[Anonymous1]

omt...as to the back door cover...at what point do you not incorporate the +7...in other words if your playing a favorite...how many points will you lay before this becomes important because i assume you see things different -3 or so...

 

[oldmanTED]

cheapseats:

As a general rule, the initial line where I begin to include the "back door cover" in my evaluation is above 8, but even more strongly once the line on the favorite is double digits, i.e. above 10. You are correct in assuming that I see things differently as the number is low.