Oldmans Picks For Saturday 11/13/04

[oldmanTED]

Decided to start this thread a day early as I am beginning to see movement in the line of one of the games that I planned on posting. I will have additional plays, but expect some line movement to occur in my favor perhaps as early as tomorrow or possibly Saturday. I will post the additional plays as I become comfortable with the line. This is the time of year when many of the sports services begin to release their college games of the year, and therefore, there is often times significant line movement on Saturday. I anticipate possibly being on the opposite side of one or more of those releases and therefore will be waiting to get a better line.

Overall Unit Record YTD: (37-20.9-1)(+16.10) 2*(2-0)(+4.00) 1*(33-19-1)(+12.10)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (35-19-1) 64.81%
NCAAF Record YTD: (26-16-1)(+9.40)
NFL Record YTD: (9-3)(+6.70)

1* Virginia -3

Plays are rated 1*-3*

Good Luck All.

 

[CoachLT]

Ted, my kindred brother, hope you are hanging in there. Thanks for sharing your knowledge and insights with us. LT

 

[Pipefitter]

Good Luck...........Will check this one out.............

 

[juice]

GL Ted, thanks for the pick, you are the man.

 

[oldirtyku]

GL Ted. I would like this game if I could get under a FG.

Ku

 

[FNGinFL]

oldirtyku -

So, buy it down a half a point....? :think1:

I'm not bashing, if it's a 1* play and you really want to have your $ on this pick, lay -120 instead of -110.

Peace

 

[charleslanger]

some books won't let you buy a half point in either direction, when the line is at 3........

 

[Illini]

FNGinFL- Oldman Ted is the best capper on this site. His 1* plays are the lowest. Most of his plays fall into this category. Thus, a 3* play would be a monster. He is the man, trust me.

 

[PITBULL]

Good Luck OMT......great work so far!!!!

 

[GoUH]

Ted,

First, let me say thank you for all your posts. Sharing all your hard work with the forum, you've been a class act. I've been at this site for many years, and you're definitely one of my favorite posters.

That being said, I'm getting pretty close to throwing my system out, and just following your picks.....but not quite just yet.

Question: Does your process for picking sides take into account where the public is betting?

I don't want you to give away any trade secrets, but just wondering. My system has a strong anti-public sentiment piece and I occasionally question its value. I like to think linesmakers shade lines due to public sentiment, but hard to say without years of data under my belt. It's been pretty good for NFL, fair for NCAA.

Thanks for your time and keep up the good work. And while it probably goes without saying, thank you for not posting 15 plays every weekend, thank you for not posting a GOY every month, thank you for not posting 50 unit plays and thank you for posting your plays early (when possible) and letting us benefit from your knowledge.

 

[FNGinFL]

Ooops, sorry

Just in the short time I've been here, I've come to see that OMT is indeed the real thing. I apologize for not understanding, as I see different people and places doing different things with their *star* systems. My book is Olympic, which will allow you to lay as much as you see fit if you don't like the line/points in SU picks.

Thanks OMT for your time and wisdom, and GL to you, and all. :toothless

 

[oldirtyku]

All I was saying is that I am not sold on this play and would only consider it for under a FG. Also, wishing the oldman some good luck.

Take carem
Ku

 

[oldmanTED]

Very interesting discussion has ensued here. Oldirtyku has raised a valid point of only wanting to play this game if he can lay less than a field goal. That being said, the reason that I posted this play now is because it is my sense that the line on this game will be more likely to fluctuate between 3 and 4 then go below 3, hence I am comfortable locking in at the current number. I would like to lay less then a field goal as well but don't believe I will get that opportunity without having to pay extra for it. Could turn out that I may be wrong on the line direction, but I can only draw upon my experience in making my decisions.

GoUH raised a question regarding whether I take which side the public is betting into consideration when making my decisions. While I definitely agree that the linesmaker sets the line shaded as to where the public may be, my answer is that it does not matter to me whether professional or public money moves a line. What is important to me is to be able to try and anticipate the direction a line may move and then deciding when is the appropriate time to make the play. I certainly have no crystal ball and am certainly not right anywhere near all the time, but I do feel that experience has provided me with a pretty fair idea of expected line direction. That being said, I have been caught, like everyone else, coming in too early or too late and not always getting the best of the line movement. An example this year was the game between California and UCLA when I posted UCLA +14.5 confidently believing that the line would move toward +14. Instead, it moved as high as +18 and California ended up with a late tack on TD, winning the game by 17.

At the outset of this thread, I mentioned that this time of year, many services begin to release their college GOY's, which brings in a lot of money on particular games. So knowing this, I prefer to wait a little longer as often times I find myself on the opposite side. This is not by design, i.e. not because it may be public money on a side, but just because it is wise to wait in anticipation of potential line movement.

Last, as always would like to thank those who have replied to this thread and wish everyone success this upcoming weekend as well as the balance of the football season.

 

[shotgun69]

got an opinion on the FSU game tonight Ted?

 

[moneymario]

Hi Ted,

I hope you are well..Please look at my post called Thursday Services.

good luck to you and God Bless as always Ted.

Mario

 

[SSI]

believe ted has a slight lean to ncst... he and i have discussed this one a little and im trying to convince him of FSU tonight.. i dont know if he will have a play or not, believe he may pass but if he plays, i expect it to be NCST, he may be waiting for a 7...

 

[oldmanTED]

shotgun69:

SSI's answer is accurate, however, it is not likely that I will make a play on tonight's game. My lean has been since early in the week but not even nearly enough to rate it as an opinion and definitely not a posted selection. It's a pass for me.

 

[oldmanTED]

Mario:

Read your thread and very kind of you and brought a smile to this oldman's face. Would like to say that the service information that you have provided on nights and weekends has been very much appreciated by many members of RX, myself included. I imagine it has taken you quite an effort to try and post all this information. More importantly, perhaps I may be reading something into your reply to this thread, but I sense you may not be alright. Is everything alright with you?

 

[moneymario]

Hi Ted,

Post was well deserved,

Just fine....a little confused right now but I have been winning but last two nights I had Louisville and switch to TCU night before I liked Toledo all day and switched to No. IIllinois and got best on both had the total right on both but got beat on the sides on Parley"s. Tonight I am Leaning under in both and NC STATE and ??

Mario

 

[moneymario]

Beat On Both Not Best