Oldmans Picks For Saturday 10/9/04

oldmanTED · Oct 3, 2004

I have been waiting for this game since before the season began and current form couldn't be more to my liking. Anyone who has read any of my threads in the past, knows that I have the ultimate respect for USC as they are prepared as a professional team playing in a college uniforms. That being said, if there is one team that has the weapons to play equal to the Trojans, it is Cal. Lines have just been released and I am taking this number now as I fully expect this number to drop. Futhermore, I have taken the number on the Stanford/Notre Dame game as well.

2* California +9.5
1* Notre Dame -4.5

Overall Unit Record YTD: (22-8.8-1)(+13.2) 2*(2-0)(+2.00) 1*(20-8-1)(+11.20)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (21-8-1) 72.41%
NCAAF Record YTD: (15-6-1)(+8.40)
NFL Record YTD: (6-2)(+4.80)

Plays are rated 1*-5*.

Good Luck All.

Mr.Leisure · Oct 3, 2004

hi ted, the line on cal/usc is + 7.5 now. how do you feel about this line?

oldmanTED · Oct 3, 2004

Mr. Leisure:

Unfortunately, the opening line on Cal lasted less then 10 minutes. Believe for the moment, the line has somewhat stabilized, although it could move to 7 before holding. This is a game I believe Cal is both mentally and physically prepared to play and matches up well with the Trojans. The line still has value at 7.5, but my rating would most likely drop to 1*. I'll leave you to determine your level of risk. Best of luck this coming weekend.

omahamoneymaker · Oct 3, 2004

OMT,

Olympic actually had it at +10 when it first came up. When I clicked on it to bet it they had already changed it to +9. I went to Pinny to check it out there and it wasn't any better so I went back to Olympic to bet it and it was down to +8.5. That is what I am locked in at. Was also able to get Purdue at -9.5 and it had already moved to -11 and will go up further I would guess. :biglaugh:

oldmanTED · Oct 3, 2004

Omaha:

I was watching the Don Best Premium Service as Cris was the first being posted before Olympic and Pinnacle and while numbers were being posted on Don Best for Cris, nothing was actually available at the site until the Don Best posting was completed. The Don Best crOpen actually shows +11.5, but Cris posted +9.5, so I took it. As you noted, very little time passed at Olympic, Pinnacle, and everywhere else before it dropped to +7.5. Glad to see we're on the same side and at least got a better number then is currently available. Best of luck with your plays this upcoming weekend.

Hitman26 · Oct 4, 2004

Ted:

First of all I want to say good job for last week. I know we are gonna be on seperate sides of your 2* this week but I wanted to pick your brain on a couple of other games. I very rarely make plays on Sunday night but I made one play tonight and that was Texas AM -7 -105. 10 minutes later it was down to 6.5 so I know the sharps are on Iowa St. Two more that jumped out but I'm waiting for the lines to keep falling are Fla and Texas. What do you think of these 3?

Thanks Ted
Hitman

wilkibeast · Oct 4, 2004

regards to tx

i cannot ever pull the trigger on the longhorns they are colleges saints... also i like the over in the purdue/psu game if you do play tx tho gl

wilkibeast · Oct 4, 2004

one sided

plus tx-ok is like red sox-yankees and tx unfortunately plays da role of da sox. lol

oldmanTED · Oct 4, 2004

Hitman26:

First let me say that I have yet to look at Saturday's card in the kind of depth that I will throughout the week. I primarily was waiting for the lines of these two particular games as I have local knowledge of both Cal and Stanford as I reside right here in the Bay Area. Knowing these lines would move quickly is why I posted this early.

With that in mind, I'll make a couple of comments on the three games that you referred to, but keep in mind these are just preliminary thoughts. As for Texas A&M, this past weekend had excellent match-ups and situational edges for the Aggies playing at home off a bye week. This week they travel and if you haven't noticed already, I am not particularly fond of conference road favorites. This is the weakest position to try and be successful. Doesn't mean they can't win, just much tougher winning on the road when laying the points in conference. As for Texas, recent history has shown that they seemingly always have a good team until they run into Oklahoma. Points seem fair, however, but coaching history is against them. As for Florida, even though I am not particularly fond of the Gators, as they can be inconsistent at times, particularly their head coach, LSU may not have a lot more left in the tank now that they have lost to both Auburn and Georgia. In summary, initial thoughts are not outright against and wouldn't surprise me if any or all of the three won and/or covered. It is highly unlikely I would post either of the teams from Texas, but Florida has a chance to be on my early list. If it becomes a selection, expect it to be later in the week at the earliest. Best of luck to you this weekend and I hope you stayed with your conviction last week on Georgia.

Hitman26 · Oct 4, 2004

Ted:

Thanks for the reply. I meant I like Oklahoma not Texas. Noticed I said I was waiting for the lines to keep dropping. I'm gonna just stick it out right now with my A&M play and wait for the lines to drop even further for Fla and Oklahoma.

Thanks for the response
Hitman

oldmanTED · Oct 4, 2004

My apologies to the forum. I just noticed that I made a mistake in my record. I accidentally show my 2* record to be 2-0. That is incorrect. I have only released one 2* selection on the Oakland Raiders, which won. The record should indicate 2*(1-0)(+2.00). All the related numbers are still correct.

This just shows one more reason why the new software is inconvenient at times. Rather then being able to edit my original thread to correct the error, I am left to start a new reply.

GREENHEAD · Oct 4, 2004

OMT, One note, when your on line on Sunday waiting for the CFB openers,and you see the college games come on,you can call in at that time to make a wager instead of waiting for your game to be typed in.This aplies at CRIS,and might save you a hook.

Just to pick your brain a little,dont you think this will be a big revenge game for USC.I would think they've been waiting for this game for a long time,and its at home with one extra week to prepare.
Good Luck ,and Thankyou for your picks all year.

oldmanTED · Oct 4, 2004

Greenhead:

Thanks for the information. Yes, this is a revenge game for USC and I have the highest respect for the Trojans as being the potential National Champion. That being said, however, this Cal team is even better then last year while the Trojans wide receivers are young and still learning their patterns, although rapidly. Cal has been looking forward to this game all year as well, as to a man they want to prove they belong with the defending National Co-Champion having beaten them last year already. Believe the talent on the field is evenly matched and the point spread generous. Thus the take. Regardless, be sure to stick with your convictions, whatever they may be, as this should be a game of high quality play. Best of luck to you this weekend.

TheAce · Oct 4, 2004

Ted,
What are some of the factors you look at when you start handicapping a particular game?

Ace

LockMaster · Oct 4, 2004

Amazing Ted, got same number on same game from same place. Just missed 10, I actually missed it twice, CRIS and OLY. Was waiting for openers with you, on Don Best Premium, and still did not get best. Maybe next time. I had number as a 7, with my number a 3. When the 10 popped, I was pleased. Were many in line for that one. Must admit, Cal much better and more experienced, vs. A USC team that may have peaked last year. Without Williams, Colbert, just not as explosive. In fact, SC almost looks like a one horse show. Sorry about the Panthers, now 1-8 last 9 as home chalk, Falcons new 4-3 is very effective, especially D-line. Well, hope you got enough rest, and are raring to go for this week's colleges. If you have time can you look over NC St vs. NC. Interested in your insights if available. :think:

oldmanTED · Oct 4, 2004

Ace:

In response to your question, once I have determined that a particular game is one that I may consider as a possible play, I look carefully at the fundamental player match-ups both at the line of scrimmage as well as at the skilled positions. I am looking for mismatches that would give one team a decided player advantage at one or more positions. I look at all sides of the game, offense, defense, special teams, and coaching match-ups. For instance, if the offensive strength of a team is in the running game and the opponents strength is the ability to shut down the run, I'll give the edge to the defense, as normally defense will dictate the outcome of most games. Coaching staffs will know both the strengths and weaknesses of their opponent and will game plan with the intent to exploit the weaknesses. I try to envision how I think the game will be played out and why. Obviously, impossible to do correctly all the time but possible a fair amount of the time. The stronger I can envision a game, the more likely it may become a play. If I have no clue, the game is dropped from consideration. After completing the fundamental match-ups, I will look for situational edges, such as home field, bye weeks, revenge, favorite or underdog, conference or non-conference games, sandwich games, etc. After completing my review of the situational edges, I will glance at any specific trends that are meaningful to this particular match-up. Once these elements are complete, I will compare the current line with the line I have established for the game. The greater the difference in the comparative lines, the more likely the game is to become a play and the rating of the game determined as well. This is but a snap shot of some of the things that I consider when handicapping any particular game. Handicapping football and sports, in general, is a very detailed process for me developed over many years and still I find it never to be easy. I respect the effort it takes to be successful in this business and never take the work needed for granted. Hopefully, this has provided you some insight into my thought process. Best of luck to you throughout this football season.

oldmanTED · Oct 4, 2004

Lockmaster:

Very interesting that we would share the same experience in trying to lock in the line. I see the game the same way you do. But then again, your being from Berkeley, I would expect no less. I graduated from Cal a lifetime ago, but that has nothing to do with how I envision this game. Truly a very good Cal team going up against a USC team, still very good, and a team that knows how to win, which is the mark of a champion, but not currently playing at the level of last year. Therein lies the difference. One additional note, took a hard look at the struggle the Trojans had with an average Stanford team and the total domination and demolition the Bears had this week against a decent Oregon State team at home. Remember Oregon State really had LSU beat except for missed kicks, but the Tigers are down this year as well, but not exactly chopped liver. Cal is the real deal in all elements of the game. Trojans may or may not win this game, but the number, although getting closer to reality, still has some value left.

As for the North Carolina/North Carolina State game, I have yet to review the game. I try to take a couple of days off early in the week and start looking again seriously Wednesday or Thursday. I'll let you know if I have any thoughts on the game later in the week. Best of luck this weekend and enjoy The Game!

oldmanTED · Oct 5, 2004

Didn't expect to be adding so early in the week, but really like this match-up with such a defensive oriented team coming off a bye week playing against a team that is thin on the defensive side of the line and has played marginal opposition. The line seems quite generous in this situation. Hence,

1* Arizona +11

Good Luck All.

Woody0 · Oct 5, 2004

A quick FYI.

Using Pinnacle's drop boxes you can buy Cal +9 -114, barely more juice than the +7.5 -110 at most shops.

ilovefootball+ · Oct 5, 2004

oldmanTED,

I know why you are taking the Cal because #1 qb rating and balaced defenses.

I think USC are struggled, but they are prepared for this game because they know that they have to pass Cal in order to go Chamionship game here. They circle this game and as you are too.

If the line is down I will take my chance with the USC. I could be wrong this game. I told people that Cal last week was my game of the year.

What happen when everyone is jumping into one boat= heavy boat!