Oldmans Picks For Saturday 10/23/04

oldmanTED · Oct 22, 2004

Overall Unit Record YTD: (29-12.1)(+16.90) 2*(2-0)(+4.00) 1*(25-11-1)(+12.90)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (27-11-1) 71.05%
NCAAF Record YTD: (21-8-1)(+13.20)
NFL Record YTD: (6-3)(+3.70)

1* Penn State -2
1* Missouri -3
1* Texas Tech Pk
1* Kansas State -4.5
1* North Carolina State +8
1* Alabama +7.5

Plays are rated 1*-5*.

Good Luck All.

Hustler982 · Oct 22, 2004

was worried you werent going to post Ted

thanks and gl

Betguy · Oct 22, 2004

Thanks, Oldman Ted!

I always enjoy your selections... gives me a good feel for where smart money is at prior to Saturday morning...

SmokeyWins · Oct 22, 2004

REMEMBER 40:drink:

Hitman26 · Oct 22, 2004

OMT:

I read before that you subscribe to dons best premium service. Do you feel it is worth the 5k per year and do you plan on subscribing next year?

Hitman

shotgun69 · Oct 22, 2004

Yo Old Man, I want to make a large wager on one of your plays, which one do u feel the most confident in??

oldmanTED · Oct 22, 2004

Hitman:

First let me refer you to a thread written by JJGold in the Offshore Forum on the various line services as I feel he did a pretty accurate assessment of the generally available services. Line services are but one tool that I believe, when properly used, can be of assistance to those undertaking this business and therefore would recommend that whether one pays for a service or uses "Live Lines" here at the RX, or a delayed service, making use of a line service in some manner is something I would highly recommend to everyone. That being said, there are clearly various choices and potential costs associated with choosing a line service. Which one should be chosen should be guided a great deal by one's level of play. Therefore, Don Best's Premium service and the associated cost is not for everyone. Most importantly, a line service will not dramatically improve one's ability to fundamentally evaluate and handicap a game which is extremely important. As I mentioned, it is but one tool in an arsenal to assist one in being successful. However, if one has limited ability to handicap a sport, a line service provides very little value. The same dollars that one might invest in a line service would be better spent educating oneself through the myriad of text material readily available on the art of handicapping. As for my future plans, these days my plans seldom go beyond the current day. Tomorrow is promised to no one. Best wishes.

oldmanTED · Oct 22, 2004

shotgun69:

If you have read my threads in the past, you should be aware that I release my selections based on a recommended percentage of one's bankroll. I am a strict believer in disciplined money management. My view of this business is never short term, but long term. Over the course of a wagering year I will generally reach a target I have set before the year begins as to how much I want my bankroll to have increased by the end of the wagering year. I manage my plays accordingly. This particular week, I have 6 selections all valued equally at 1% of my bankroll. No play is any stronger than any other play this week. This year too date, I have released 2 stronger plays only, and been successful on each. In the future, there will be other stronger releases, but not this week. Thus, the answer to your question is that I feel equally confident in each play. No one play is better then any other.

ctgiant · Oct 22, 2004

thanks once again ted,much appreciated:aktion033

Illini · Oct 22, 2004

Oldman Ted- I just wanted to introduce myself, and thank you for your presence here. You are truly a class act, and one of the most humble people I've ever seen. You are also a great handicapper, and it's obvious that you have a lifetime of experience, and know exactly what you're doing. Many of us appreciate you posting your plays and write-ups on them. I'm curious as to how you ever got started handicapping, what books you recommend, and how a mentor might help one to someday be half as sharp as you are. I don't know your exact situation in life, but I wish you the best of health, and hope that you are around here for a long time. You're the best, thanks again. God Bless, Illini.

oldirtyku · Oct 22, 2004

Ted,

WOW!!! 6 plays on a saturday. That is a lot for you.

Good luck!!!:aktion033

Ku

Mr.Leisure · Oct 22, 2004

#1 handicapper

I`m going to ride your card this week.I hope your feeling alright.
Thanks for taking the time to post.

GOOD LUCK!

CoachLT · Oct 22, 2004

Ted, kindred soul, I am glad that we are on Tex Tech, Missouri, and NC State together. Thinking of you often and hoping you are hanging in there. LT

THEBUFFROCK · Oct 22, 2004

Ted..............

continued good health to you..............your views are much appreciated by everyone in this forum. Good luck this weekend!

SSI · Oct 22, 2004

Illini,,,, if i may be so bold to jump in here and help ted out,,, as he tires out easily these days.... He likes Oly, Pinny, and Wsex... think he has a couple others but these are at the top of his list..... He has been doing this around 30yrs... sorry ted, if i spoke out of place......

SSI

WVUACE · Oct 22, 2004

Can anybody reccomend a good site to get avatars? I've seen a lot of them on here and would like to have one of my own. Thanks everyone!!

LEYKIS101 · Oct 22, 2004

Ted,

Love your plays, as always.

You are one of the few cappers I find with a sensible amount of plays and excellent money management skills. You provide lessons we all could learn from.

Like all here, we hope youre feeling better.

Thanks for all your hard work.

Leykis

NorthernStar · Oct 22, 2004

Oldman Ted:

I have been a longtime lurker and just recently started to post thoughts and opinions in an attempt to help the "gambling degenerates" ( myself included ) to become more knowledgeable by sharing opions and ideas. I am a pretty experienced gambler who does it more for recreation at this time because of other responsibilities from family and work. I had previously written a paper in regards to using a percentage of bankroll as a way to manage money. I don't know if you know this or not but using a percentage of bankroll was first presented in a paper by a gentlemen who was an engineer worked for the phone company by the name of Kelly. Sometimes it is known as the Kelly Criterion. Ideally, with the Kelly criterion you would wager some % of your bankroll on each play, increasing or decreasing your play with each win or loss. With sports betting a problem arises in cases where you have say 3 games you want to play in the NFL and they all go at noon. On days when you go 3-0 you don't win as much as if you had gone 3-0 on three plays going say at noon, sunday night and monday night. On the flip side you also lose more when you go 0-3. I experimented with the numbers to try mimic the results of the plays going off sequencially but stlill having say three games going at the same time. It had an expanation of it and how to do it and I would love to provide you with a copy if you are interested. I am pretty sure I still have a copy of it in my basement somewhere. Class act Ted and I wish you the best in both your health and your selections. Let me know if you would like a copy and I will go digging in the basemnet.

Northern Star

jerseymike111 · Oct 22, 2004

Best of Luck Ted

I hope you have a feel good and a winning weekend!

oldmanTED · Oct 22, 2004

Illini:

As stated by SSI on my behalf, I was first introduced to this profession in my early 20's, some 30+ years ago, through an associate who was a bookmaker. I began developing my handicapping skills at that time. As to what books I would recommend, if you are referring to offshore books, once again SSI was correct in stating that my top tier books are WSEX, Pinnacle, and Olympic. If you are referring to what type of literature you might wish to read to assist you in developing your skills, rather then give you any specific author or book title, let me refer you to the Gamblers Book Store in Las Vegas which you can find on-line and receive a catalog of listed books at no cost. There is a myriad of well written material and reference material that one can both learn from and find currently useful. But, the bottom line is, as is the case in many things in life, there is no substitute for experience, particularly in this business. One can learn more from their mistakes then from their successes.