Oldmans Picks For Saturday 10/2/04

[oldmanTED]

Decided to start this thread early as I have already made two plays and anticipate losing value on the lines of these particular games as the week goes on and/or on gameday. This week presents a few more opportunities, so I expect to have a few more additional plays then usual, but on some, I may have to wait as late as game day and/or the approach of kick-off before posting because I expect some lines to move in my favor. Some of the games I expect the line to be stable and will be able to post them earlier. My apologies for any inconvenience to each of you, but I will do my best to post each additional play as I become comfortable with the line. Hence,

1* Auburn +3 (-120)
1* South Carolina/Alabama Under 41

Overall Unit Record YTD: (17-6.6-1)(+10.40) 2*(1-0)(+2.00) 1*(15-6-1)(+8.40)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (16-6-1) 72.73%
NCAAF Record YTD: (10-5-1)(+4.50)
NFL Record YTD: (6-1)(+5.90)

Plays are rated 1*-5*.

Good Luck All.

 

[wilheim]

Good luck Ted.


wil.

 

[jsherman18]

Excellent job so far Ted....I notice you rank your plays 1-5*, but it seems you only release 1* picks...as the season goes on, do you rank plays stronger?

 

[oldmanTED]

jsherman18:

My wagering year spans from the beginning of football in August through the end of the basketball in June. Last year I registered with the RX in early December and through June posted 291 plays of which 273 were 1* plays, 17 were 3* plays and 1 was a 5* play. This breakdown is in relatively strict accordance with the money management principles I've applied for many years. Each unit is equivalent to a like percentage of my bankroll at all times. Thus 1* equals 1%, 3* equals 3% and 5* equals 5%. Thus you will see far more plays of 1% and very rarely see plays of 5%. Building a profit added to ones bankroll is not a sprint but a marathon. I view this business very long term and not for immediate gratification.

That being said, to specifically answer your question, my response would be affirmative. As the season progresses, my knowledge of the fundamental and situational match-ups between opponents becomes clearer and stronger and history has shown me that the more important the game and the better the competitors, the higher my win percentage becomes. I find that in the stretch drives of each sport as well as the post season, I am usually at my best. As a result of this, more plays will present themselves to increase the rating above a 1* play. Of course, throughout the regular season there will be opportunities presented as well, as happen to be the case this past weekend in the NFL.

I hope this has provided you with some insight into my thought process and money management principles. Best of luck to you throughout this football season.

 

[Mr.Leisure]

Hello Ted,The best # I can get on s.c./ala. is under 39.5.Would you play this #?

 

[oldmanTED]

Mr. Leisure:

Yes, I would still take the Under 39.5, but would not go any lower then 38. Best of luck this weekend. Hope you did well last week.

 

[Mr.Leisure]

On them both,auburn +3-125 and sc/ala.under 39.5 -106.Been doing real good lately,THANKS TO YOU and other select guys info on the different forums

GOOD LUCK!!!

 

[Kodiak7]

good luck!

 

[oldmanTED]

Promised to return when I am comfortable with a line or feel that the line is stable. In this particular case, I will admit that I am having great difficulty, not in the selection of the play, but rather the anticipated direction of the line. Line is currently sitting on a key number. Another key number sits one point higher with an additional key number sitting two points lower. Honestly, would not be surprised to see the number move in either direction in this game, but feel the risk of the line going higher is greater then waiting for it to go lower. Thus, I took the current number. Additional plays still to come, but lines appear stable in some and moving as expected in my favor in others. So for now, only adding this one play. Hence,

1* Purdue/Notre Dame Over 51

Good Luck All.

 

[jsherman18]

Thanks for responding...I look forward to your strong releases in the future and with how conservative you are, they will surely be picks to take advantage of. Continued luck!

 

[omahamoneymaker]

OMT,



I too like the over in the Purdue/NDame game. I was very unimpressed with the Purdue defense this past weekend. I also see no reason to believe that NDame will be able to keep Purdue from scoring atleast 27 points. I like the over in this game and lean to NDame also. Best of luck to you.

 

[Hitman26]

Ted:


Goodluck on your plays this weekend. Lot of buzz down here about Auburn especailly if they can pull this one out. Anyway I really really like Georgia this Sat (especailly if I can lay less than 3) and I wanted to get your thoughts on that game.





Hitman

 

[Allstar]

oldmanTED

Thanks and good luck this weekend my friend!!!

Allstar :drink:

 

[oldmanTED]

Hitman26:

Interesting that you would ask me about the LSU/Georgia game as this is one of the games that I have been considering posting. Fully expect this to be a very hard fought battle between two quality teams that are not easy to separate. Georgia lost both games to LSU last year including being beaten badly in the SEC Championship game, but the Tigers lost Mauck yet still are sound defensively and can run. The Bulldogs are one year older, have the homefield, and are coming off a bye week allowing for additional preparation. My sense is that this game will be very close and either team could potentially win. It has all the looks of being a 1 point game to me. That being said, I communicate daily via e-mail with one of our former posters, who like you, feels very strongly about Georgia as well. He is having an excellent year so far and lives in the South as well. Regardless of what I decide to do on this game, please stick with your conviction and play the Bulldogs if you feel strongly about them. Best of luck whatever you decide.

 

[oldmanTED]

As promised, returning with an additional play that I had on my short list . This particular play the line has been very volatile as it opened as low as -3, quickly moved to -5.5, and now has returned to as low as -3.5. Once again, we're at a cross roads, not on the play, but on the projected movement of the line. I definitely can envision seeing the line moving even lower on Saturday as I believe many to be on the opposite side, but with another key number at -4, consideration should be given to possibly making the play now and even buying the hook. I will post the play and leave it to the reader to decide if and when to move. Hence,

1* Texas A&M -3.5 or lower.

Good Luck All.

 

[oldmanTED]

Very possible this may be my final play on the card for Saturday although two games still remain possibilities by are tough calls at the moment and the lines are tight. For this particular match-up, the line opened at -10 and very, very quickly moved to -12.5 and up and I believe appropriately so. Currently the line is rapidly moving further, but there are still opportunities for those that may be interested, particularly with books that offer a free half point daily or on Fridays. Obviously lost some line value from the opening, but still comfortable with the current number. Hence,

1* Stanford -12.5

 

[oldmanTED]

Because the new software does not provide the ability to edit the original thread, I will provide a summary of my selections in order of rotation schedule. Once again, most likely this will be my entire card. There will be no further additions for the early or mid afternoon games. The only possible consideration is a very late evening game, but that is not likely. Thus the summary below:

1* Purdue/Notre Dame Over 51
1* South Carolina/Alabama U41
1* Stanford -12.5
1* Texas A&M -3.5 or lower
1* Auburn +3 (-120)

Good Luck All.

 

[Kojak]

Oldman Ted,

Best of luck tomorrow as I agree and am playing nearly all of your plays. One heads up is that we are getting a lot of rain in the Chicago land area which is about 75 minutes to South Bend. There may be a wet field for this one tomorrow which could limit points. Being a Purdue alumni, I will also tell you that Tiller becomes more run oriented in these big games as to avoid the big mistakes. I was liking over as well but may be a no play now due to weather and how Tiller coaches in these games. You may see more field goals instead of touchdowns in this one. Best of luck.

 

[oldmanTED]

Kojak:

Thanks for the weather information. Looks like a light rain is currently falling this late night/early morning with the front moving through South Bend. Projected game time weather is upper 50's with mostly sunny skies. Field may be a bit damp as you so stated. Even though Tiller has shown to be conservative in the past, have to believe that he will go to his strength here, which is through the air. Plus a wet field should benefit the receivers as they know their routes and the defenders must react plus the lineman may have difficulty pushing off depending on the softness of the turf. Either way, appreciate the information. One of the best advantages about the forum is different members across the country sharing local information to each other as well as the viewers. Good job and best of luck with your plays tomorrow.

 

[mgk222]

Good morning OMT,Hope all is well,see you were up late last night.The total for S.CAR/Ala is now 38.5,is there still value there.Thanx