Oldmans Picks For NFL Sunday 1/18/04

[oldmanTED]

Coming off a 3-4 day yesterday in college hoops but today we turn to the NFL Conference Championship games.

AFC Championship: Indianapolis vs New England

Indianapolis features Peyton Manning throwing for 275 ypg (68%) with a 37-10 ratio and a QBR of 105.0. But in this years playoffs his ratio is 8-0 and a QBR of 156.9. However, against New England he is 2-7 SU with 254 ypg (61%) with a 18-14 ratio. The running game features Edgerrin James who averaged 4.1 ypc. The receiving corp features Marvin Harrison with 107 receptions (14.0 ypc), Reggie Wayne with 79 receptions (12.2 ypc), Marcus Pollard with 44 receptions (13.8 ypc), and Brandon Stokley with 30 receptions (13.7 ypc) and James with 57 receptions (6.1 ypc). This offense will face a New England defense allowing 3.6 ypc on the ground, 217 ypg (10.7 ypc) passing (54% completions) with a 12-30 ratio, 33.6% third down efficiency and opposing QBR of 56.2. New England features Tom Brady throwing for 225 ypg (60%) with a 24-12 ratio and a QBR of 85.0. However, against Indianapolis throws for 202 ypg (71%) and a 5-2 ratio. The running game features Antowain Smith (3.6 ypc) and Kevin Faulk (3.6 ypc). The receiving corp features Deion Branch with 60 receptions (13.6 ypc), Troy Brown with 42 receptions (11.5 ypc), Daniel Graham with 39 receptions (10.5 ypc), and Faulk with 51 receptions (9.2 ypc). This offense will face and Indianapolis defense allowing 4.7 ypc on the ground, 190 ypg (10.8 ypc) passing (63% completions) with a 20-17 ratio, 38.3% third down efficiency and opposing QBR of 82.0. Indianapolis has an average special teams unit except for Mike Vanderjagt who has not missed a field goal this year. P Hunter Smith has not had to kick in the playoffs but their return teams are susceptible to giving up yardage as well as touchdowns, including 2 in the first meeting between these teams. New Englands special teams are average as well as P Ken Walters only has a net of 33.6 and K Adam Vinateri has made only 73.5% of his field goal attempts. The return teams were very good providing solid field position. The lines for this game are very sharp and the weather provides an additional intangible as well as the loss for New England of C Woody. Peyton Manning is playing at a extremely high level however this was against a Denver defense at home in the dome and a Kansas City defense that didn't exist in an unusual climate condition for this time of year. We believe that given the weather as well as facing a better defense will at least slow him down a bit. On the other hand, we think the New England offense should be able to move the ball against the Colts defense. Remember, Kansas City never punted either. With a game that appears to have perhaps a shortened field due to weather effecting the kicking and return game, we look for some points to be put on the board even though there is a light snow. Hence,

1* New England -3
1* New England/Indianapolis Over 42

Overall Unit Record YTD: (81-58.4) 58.11% 5*(1-0)(+5.0) 3*(7-4)(+7.8) 1*(55-41-2)(+9.8)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (63-45-2) 58.33%
NFL Record YTD: (11-10-1)(-2.5)
NCAAF Record YTD: (21-8)(+22.0) (Final Bowl Game Record 19-8 Included)
NBA Record YTD: (7-4)(+4.6)
NCAAB Record YTD: (24-23-1)(-1.5)

Plays rated 1*-5*

Good Luck All. Check back later for analysis and selection of the NFC Conference Championship.

 

[Co-Captain]

Aloha Ted, I wish you the best of luck today my friend. Aloha CC.

Are you playing any teasers today as well.

 

[oldmanTED]

Captain:

I thought about two teasers, one which I believe you already have. Indianapolis +10/Carolina +11 and possibly Ind/NE Over 35 to make it a 3 teamer. Also, looking at a Ind/NE Over 35 and Car/Phil either Over 29 or Under 43.

The straight lines for today's games are as tough and as sharp as I've seen for the Conference Championships in many a year. Usually, I have a very strong play in these games but not today. In this oldman's humble opinion, today is a day for creating value and you can do that with the teasers. There are many opinions on teasers, but there are times when they can provide value and I believe today is one of those days. So if you are inclined, tease away. Just don't go crazy. I will use today's games to try and get a gage on the Superbowl. Good luck to you today and enjoy those lobsters. Wish I were there in the islands today. Aloha!

 

[JonT95]

Nice write-up Ted! I agree with NE strong, but took the unders...although my totals are at 44. Maybe it will be at 43 final and we'll both be celebrating!

Good Luck!

 

[oldmanTED]

As promised, back with my analysis and selections for the NFC Conference Championship.

NFC Championship: Carolina vs Philadelphia

Carolina features Jake Delhomme throwing for 210 ypg (60%) with a 21-17 ratio and a QBR of 82.6. The running game features Stephen Davis, who is injured but suppose to start, averaging 4.7 ypc. In his place, is DeShaun Foster who averages 3.8 ypc. The receiving corp features Steven Smith with 99 receptions (14.2 ypc), Mushin Muhammad with 63 receptions (16.0 ypc) and Ricky Proehl with 28 receptions (14.1 ypc) and Foster adds 29 receptions (7.8 ypc.). This offense will face a Philadelphia defense allowing 4.6 ypc on the ground, 216 ypg (10.4 ypc) passing (60% completions) with a 19-14 ratio, 35% third down efficiency and opposing QBR of 78.5. Philadelphia features Donovan McNabb throwing for 236 ypg (64%) in his last 10 games with a 14-5 ratio. The running game is hurt by the loss of Brian Westbrook but features Duce Staley who averaged 4.8 ypc and Correll Buckhalter who averaged 4.1 ypc. The receiving corp features James Thrash with 50 receptions (11.3 ypc), Todd Pinkston with 43 receptions (15.6 ypc), Freddie Mitchell with 37 receptions (14.5 ypc) and Staley adds 39 receptions (10.5 ypc). This offense will face a Carolina defense allowing 3.9 ypc on the ground, 206 ypg (10.7 ypc) passing (57% completions) with a 19-20 ratio, 34.7% third down efficiency and an opposing QBR of 72.2. Carolina has excellent special teams with P Todd Sauerbrun with a net of 36.8 yards and K John Kasay hitting 86% of his field goal attempts. The return teams provide solid field position. Philadelphia special teams are very good as well with P Dirk Johnson having a net of 34.6 and K David Akers hitting 83% of his field goal attempts. The return teams are hurt by the loss of Westbrook but still should provide decent field position. Once again, the lines for this game are very sharp and it appears that the weather will be cold and windy tonight following a winter mix that moved through Philadelphia. On paper, this battle appears to be very close with both teams matching up well against each other. But there is an intangible here that can't be overlooked. Philadelphia continues to give up yardage on the ground, particularly last week against the Packers, but somehow seems to overcome it and still win. They have been doing this throughout the year. It defies logic but it is an undenieable fact. Definitely respect what Carolina showed in beating Dallas at home as well as St.Louis on the road in a dome. Once again, this is a different scenario. This game will be played in a cold, wet and windy climate in a very hostile environment. Philadelphia is in it's third straight championship game and has been denied twice by better teams. We're not so sure that Carolina is the likes of St.Louis or Tampa Bay of the past two years. Belief here is that with the return of Troy Vincent, Philadelphia will bring its full compliment of blitz packages and still be able to cover although Smith and Muhammad are very dangerous. We envision respected QB Delhomme to be under pressure of the circumstances and playing conditions. We also expect however, that Carolina will put significant defensive pressure on McNabb who was sacked 8 times last week. But, in the end, we think that the Eagles will do enough and possibly cause turnovers that make the difference in a defensive battle. Hence,

1* Philadelphia -4
1* Philadelphia/Carolina Under 37

Good Luck All. Enjoy the games.

 

[oldmanTED]

Jont95:

Thanks for your comments. These are very tough games today and, with the weather conditions, promise to be real battles. Enjoy the games and good luck today with your plays.