SSI:
Understood. Am fully aware of Peavy's performance too date but this does give me an opportunity to ask for your thoughts on playing the run line. So here is my question.
If one believes strongly that a shutdown pitcher like Schmidt is more likely than not to help his team win the game, should one also consider the risk that, in this type of instance only, winning by 2 runs is nearly as likely as winning by only 1 run? Is it better to risk 159 to win 100 protecting or risking only 100 to win 151? Risk versus return. Padres could win outright or stay within the run line, so which truly is the better investment? This is a question I've often thought about. Your thoughts!
Understood. Am fully aware of Peavy's performance too date but this does give me an opportunity to ask for your thoughts on playing the run line. So here is my question.
If one believes strongly that a shutdown pitcher like Schmidt is more likely than not to help his team win the game, should one also consider the risk that, in this type of instance only, winning by 2 runs is nearly as likely as winning by only 1 run? Is it better to risk 159 to win 100 protecting or risking only 100 to win 151? Risk versus return. Padres could win outright or stay within the run line, so which truly is the better investment? This is a question I've often thought about. Your thoughts!
Cash:
First let me thank you for your comments in my NBA thread the last couple of days. Very much appreciated and badly needed. I almost posted my leans and wouldn't you know they would go 2-1 as I liked New Jersey, Boston, and Sac/Dal Under.
As for today, I'm strictly going off what I saw first hand with Schmidt's performance on Friday. He carried a no hitter for 6+ innings and was almost as sharp as at the end of last season. The runs scored were small ball without hits. His velocity and location were excellent. If he is right, and of course no one will know for sure, he is always shut out material and can nearly complete a game in 90-100 pitches, although I doubt Alou will let him go that far regardless of pitch count considering it is only his second start. Due agree that the Giants hitting is struggling and wouldn't be surprised if Bonds never saw a pitch to hit tonight. San Diego could very well be the play here, but as I stated at the top of this thread, this oldman is just having some fun and is truly a Homer when it comes to the Giants. I don't wager serious money on MLB. Best of luck to you tonight.
First let me thank you for your comments in my NBA thread the last couple of days. Very much appreciated and badly needed. I almost posted my leans and wouldn't you know they would go 2-1 as I liked New Jersey, Boston, and Sac/Dal Under.
As for today, I'm strictly going off what I saw first hand with Schmidt's performance on Friday. He carried a no hitter for 6+ innings and was almost as sharp as at the end of last season. The runs scored were small ball without hits. His velocity and location were excellent. If he is right, and of course no one will know for sure, he is always shut out material and can nearly complete a game in 90-100 pitches, although I doubt Alou will let him go that far regardless of pitch count considering it is only his second start. Due agree that the Giants hitting is struggling and wouldn't be surprised if Bonds never saw a pitch to hit tonight. San Diego could very well be the play here, but as I stated at the top of this thread, this oldman is just having some fun and is truly a Homer when it comes to the Giants. I don't wager serious money on MLB. Best of luck to you tonight.
ted, good question and it seems that you may be correct in your thinking at first glance. However i find it very difficult to lay -1.5 runs and take the home team.. Reasons are:
1. One less AB, if your ahead after the eighth. and lots of time the home team is leading and winning by 1 after eighth.. I much prefer to take the road team and lay the -1.5 runs.. they always get 9 full AB and are allowed to score as many as possible in the 9th or extra innings if need be.. If its tied after eighth then you need a walkoff homerun, thats the only way to win in that situation.
2. If your trailing after 8, then without a walkoff homerun you cannot win. the rules will only let you win by 1. and in low scoring games (pitchers duels) this happens all the time,,, case in point seattle has beaten oakland by 1 run the past 2 days..
now in saying all this, im sure the giants will smoke them and your bet will be a winner but playing your bet daily, i wouldnt take it.. schmidt vs. peavy is not like pedro vs. weaver.
low scoring, pitching duels produce many 1 run games and like i said the home team is severly handicapped in a close game after the 8th..
1. One less AB, if your ahead after the eighth. and lots of time the home team is leading and winning by 1 after eighth.. I much prefer to take the road team and lay the -1.5 runs.. they always get 9 full AB and are allowed to score as many as possible in the 9th or extra innings if need be.. If its tied after eighth then you need a walkoff homerun, thats the only way to win in that situation.
2. If your trailing after 8, then without a walkoff homerun you cannot win. the rules will only let you win by 1. and in low scoring games (pitchers duels) this happens all the time,,, case in point seattle has beaten oakland by 1 run the past 2 days..
now in saying all this, im sure the giants will smoke them and your bet will be a winner but playing your bet daily, i wouldnt take it.. schmidt vs. peavy is not like pedro vs. weaver.
low scoring, pitching duels produce many 1 run games and like i said the home team is severly handicapped in a close game after the 8th..
SSI:
Thanks for your response. Great points. In fact, the other night when I had Houston with Oswalt on the run line, the Astros scored 1 run in the first and led the entire game 1-0 and I was thinking about the fact that they may not score again and wouldn't bat in the 9th only to get lucky as the Astros scored one more in the bottom of the 8th for a 2-0 win. With what little number of plays I make, I must admit I have been burned many times losing by that half run. Do you ever take the +1.5 runs?
Thanks for your response. Great points. In fact, the other night when I had Houston with Oswalt on the run line, the Astros scored 1 run in the first and led the entire game 1-0 and I was thinking about the fact that they may not score again and wouldn't bat in the 9th only to get lucky as the Astros scored one more in the bottom of the 8th for a 2-0 win. With what little number of plays I make, I must admit I have been burned many times losing by that half run. Do you ever take the +1.5 runs?
ted, would like to tell you a good stat about barry bonds, he has 9 homers this year and he has swung and missed 7 times.. not struck out 7 times but swung and missed 7 times.. what he is doing is unbelievable,, he saw 16 pitches last night and swung at exactly one of them and guess what, it was a homerun..
Ted, if you ever wanted to see babe ruth play in his prime, your seeing it right now.. thats a quote from Tim Kurtchen of ESPN..
In Home games this season, barry is homering every 4.2 swings of the bat,, not at bat's but every 4.2 swings...
Id really love to see him hit .400 this year, no one is talking about this because of him homeruns but i think with the amount of walks that he will get, he has a shot at .400..... couldnt be any steroid talk then because batting average has little to do with roids..
Ted, if you ever wanted to see babe ruth play in his prime, your seeing it right now.. thats a quote from Tim Kurtchen of ESPN..
In Home games this season, barry is homering every 4.2 swings of the bat,, not at bat's but every 4.2 swings...
Id really love to see him hit .400 this year, no one is talking about this because of him homeruns but i think with the amount of walks that he will get, he has a shot at .400..... couldnt be any steroid talk then because batting average has little to do with roids..
SSI:
Although the people in this area have never been treated to seeing the Giants win the World Series since arriving in the late 50's, we have had the pleasure of watching some of the greatest players of all time play in a Giants uniform, namely Willy Mays, Willy McCovey, Orlando Cepeda, Juan Marichal, the Alou brothers, Bobby Bonds and Barry Bonds and others too many to mention.
Being old enough to have seen them all since the time I was a little leaguer, the batting eye of Barry Bonds is something to behold. Even Felipe Alou who played with all the above greats has stated that in his entire lifetime, he has never seen a player with such a keen eye for the location and spin of the ball and be able to decide, in an instant, how to turn on the ball and make contact. According to Alou, if Barry chose to hit to left field, he could get hits all day long because of the shift, but his value is with his power so he maintains his disciplined eye looking for one pitch to drive as his father taught him that it only takes one pitch to get a hit. His patience is remarkable. He changes the way every team has to play against the Giants.
As a footnote, many young people today don't know how great Willy Mays really was. Hitting in Candlestick Park, which in his day had centerfield directly open to the wind coming in from San Francisco Bay, Willy collected 660 home runs. Had he been hitting in any reasonable ball park, I have never doubted that he would currently be at the top of the home run list and Barry would still be chasing him. The relationship between these two is remarkable. Barry having watched his godfather since the age of 4, being mentored by both his father Bobby as well as Willy. Great stuff! Enjoy while you can. It will be along time before we see another hitter with the incredible ability that he possesses. All this being done with seeing but a few pitches, if any, each day. Amazing!
Although the people in this area have never been treated to seeing the Giants win the World Series since arriving in the late 50's, we have had the pleasure of watching some of the greatest players of all time play in a Giants uniform, namely Willy Mays, Willy McCovey, Orlando Cepeda, Juan Marichal, the Alou brothers, Bobby Bonds and Barry Bonds and others too many to mention.
Being old enough to have seen them all since the time I was a little leaguer, the batting eye of Barry Bonds is something to behold. Even Felipe Alou who played with all the above greats has stated that in his entire lifetime, he has never seen a player with such a keen eye for the location and spin of the ball and be able to decide, in an instant, how to turn on the ball and make contact. According to Alou, if Barry chose to hit to left field, he could get hits all day long because of the shift, but his value is with his power so he maintains his disciplined eye looking for one pitch to drive as his father taught him that it only takes one pitch to get a hit. His patience is remarkable. He changes the way every team has to play against the Giants.
As a footnote, many young people today don't know how great Willy Mays really was. Hitting in Candlestick Park, which in his day had centerfield directly open to the wind coming in from San Francisco Bay, Willy collected 660 home runs. Had he been hitting in any reasonable ball park, I have never doubted that he would currently be at the top of the home run list and Barry would still be chasing him. The relationship between these two is remarkable. Barry having watched his godfather since the age of 4, being mentored by both his father Bobby as well as Willy. Great stuff! Enjoy while you can. It will be along time before we see another hitter with the incredible ability that he possesses. All this being done with seeing but a few pitches, if any, each day. Amazing!
2 questions,
will he pass babe this year? i think he needs 54 on the season to do it..
can he possibly hit .400
your opinions..
nothing better in sports to me, than seeing someone chase .400 or chase the 56 game hitting streak.. of course i am a baseball man.. although sosa and mac brought a lot back to baseball a few years ago.. too bad this steroid thing might cloud what barry is doing.. if griffery could stay healthy and for pete's sake he should get a personal trainer and become a health nut.. also maybe Arod or Pujols..
will he pass babe this year? i think he needs 54 on the season to do it..
can he possibly hit .400
your opinions..
nothing better in sports to me, than seeing someone chase .400 or chase the 56 game hitting streak.. of course i am a baseball man.. although sosa and mac brought a lot back to baseball a few years ago.. too bad this steroid thing might cloud what barry is doing.. if griffery could stay healthy and for pete's sake he should get a personal trainer and become a health nut.. also maybe Arod or Pujols..
SSI:
If the Giants are not in contention, I think it will affect Barry's concentration later in the year. He wants to win a World Series for San Francisco so badly, and quite frankly, this team is not equipped to do so and I think he already knows it. Recent games he has done everything he can to help them win only to see runners left on base late due to inning ending double plays. Sometimes, you can see the disappointment on his face although he tries to remain strong. I think as the season hits mid summer, he may tire both mentally and physically. I think he would have a better chance at hitting .400 than catching Ruth this year because, like you said, the number of walks keeps his AB's low. Don't think he'll ever approach DiMaggio's 56 game hitting streak because some games they won't pitch to him, particularly the contenders later in the season. As for Griffey, it has been very disappointing since he came over from the Seattle. With all the injuries, he never will achieve his full potential. Agree, he needed a better personal trainer. Look at Bonds. He takes great care of himself at the age of 39. As for Arod and Pujols, talented for sure, but Barry is going to set a high standard and it is difficult to play enough years and stay healthy to put up the numbers. It's kind of like trying to catch Jerry Rice's numbers. He just keeps going and going and no one will play long enough or be dedicated enough in their training habits to catch some of his records.
P.S. I posted New Orleans +5.5 in the NBA Forum tonight. I will most likely pass all Game 3's and watch the home dogs and how they perform and set up Game 4's.
If the Giants are not in contention, I think it will affect Barry's concentration later in the year. He wants to win a World Series for San Francisco so badly, and quite frankly, this team is not equipped to do so and I think he already knows it. Recent games he has done everything he can to help them win only to see runners left on base late due to inning ending double plays. Sometimes, you can see the disappointment on his face although he tries to remain strong. I think as the season hits mid summer, he may tire both mentally and physically. I think he would have a better chance at hitting .400 than catching Ruth this year because, like you said, the number of walks keeps his AB's low. Don't think he'll ever approach DiMaggio's 56 game hitting streak because some games they won't pitch to him, particularly the contenders later in the season. As for Griffey, it has been very disappointing since he came over from the Seattle. With all the injuries, he never will achieve his full potential. Agree, he needed a better personal trainer. Look at Bonds. He takes great care of himself at the age of 39. As for Arod and Pujols, talented for sure, but Barry is going to set a high standard and it is difficult to play enough years and stay healthy to put up the numbers. It's kind of like trying to catch Jerry Rice's numbers. He just keeps going and going and no one will play long enough or be dedicated enough in their training habits to catch some of his records.
P.S. I posted New Orleans +5.5 in the NBA Forum tonight. I will most likely pass all Game 3's and watch the home dogs and how they perform and set up Game 4's.
ted, with a nice year by schmidt and reuter the giants could stay in contention,, they are (in my opinion) in a weak division.. the central is much stronger and also east (again in my opinion).. i think its quite possible that a .500 record will keep you in contention in the west.. however if the giants drop out then why couldnt barry become a little more selfish, maybe he could purposely go for the records.. and by the way, i didnt even consider barry for the 56 game hit streak, for that one it would take a guy that never walks.. barry could hit .400 however because it will take someone getting real close to the required 500 AB's,, no way with 600 at bats can it be done.. someone needs to go 200 for 500 to have the best shot.. the 56 game will never be broken and maybe not approached, i dont consider rose's 44 games to even approach and even after joe d's streak ended, he went on to hit in 15 more straight, so he hit in something like 71 of 72 games.......
SSI:
Going into the season, I felt the Dodgers pitching would help them separate from the rest of an average division. The key issue for me was the acquistion of the Giants new catcher from Minnesota. With Santiago calling the games, the Giants pitching ERA dropped significantly over the 3 years he was behind the plate. The new catcher, sorry can't spell his name, doesn't know the National League hitters and his game calling is already showing it. Thus, even with Schmidt, Reuter, Williams, Hermanson, et.al, not a great staff, but with an inexperienced catcher to the NL, they will suffer a bit. I don't think near .500 will get it done. I think the Dodgers win in the mid 90's and I just don't see the Giants getting there unless Alou can pull some magic in managing which he is fully capable of doing. He will get the most wins possible as he manages every game to win and worries about tomorrow, tomorrow. As for Barry, I hope he achieves either or both reaching Ruth or hitting .400, particularly the latter because there has never been a hitter that would have both numbers although Ted Williams was close but not in the HR department. Agree, DiMaggio's record will be very difficult to pass, particularly in today's game with all the pitching specialists.
Going into the season, I felt the Dodgers pitching would help them separate from the rest of an average division. The key issue for me was the acquistion of the Giants new catcher from Minnesota. With Santiago calling the games, the Giants pitching ERA dropped significantly over the 3 years he was behind the plate. The new catcher, sorry can't spell his name, doesn't know the National League hitters and his game calling is already showing it. Thus, even with Schmidt, Reuter, Williams, Hermanson, et.al, not a great staff, but with an inexperienced catcher to the NL, they will suffer a bit. I don't think near .500 will get it done. I think the Dodgers win in the mid 90's and I just don't see the Giants getting there unless Alou can pull some magic in managing which he is fully capable of doing. He will get the most wins possible as he manages every game to win and worries about tomorrow, tomorrow. As for Barry, I hope he achieves either or both reaching Ruth or hitting .400, particularly the latter because there has never been a hitter that would have both numbers although Ted Williams was close but not in the HR department. Agree, DiMaggio's record will be very difficult to pass, particularly in today's game with all the pitching specialists.
dodgers, and to think at the start of the year people were talking about how sorry the dodgers would be.. particularly their offense.... ill give them gagne but their staff shouldnt scare anyone... and was milton bradley that great of a pickup.. lets just see how it plays out, personally i dont like any of them and i would hope colorado wins it.. im still struggling with my weak offensive braves..
