Oldmans Pick For Tuesday 5/11/04

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Coming off an 0-1 day yesterday losing with Sacramento. Today, my focus is on Game 4 of the San Antonio/Los Angeles series.

So far this series has belonged to the home teams as each team has protected it's home court with outright wins as well as wins ATS. As this series began, the Spurs looked like the dominant team with speed, quickness, defense and depth that made the Lakers look old and slow. In Game 3 however, there were some very key adjustments made by the Laker coaching staff, most notably the double teaming of Tony Parker as well as Tim Duncan and sometimes triple teaming Duncan. These adjustments clearly caused a breakdown in the Spurs offense as Parker was picked up quickly on the pick and roll and Duncan was quickly trapped on the block. Both were taken completely out of their offensive rhythm and the supporting cast could not overcome the game plan. Meanwhile, the Lakers continue to pound the ball inside to O'Neal for easy dunks and played pick and roll of their own with Payton plus Bryant and Malone looked to each other for easy looks and layups. The result an easy 105-81 win for the Lakers. There was 3 days of rest and preparation between Game 2 and Game 3. This time there is only 1 day between games. Will that be enough time for the Spurs coaching staff to come up with an adjustment to the Laker defensive scheme? Feeling here is that it won't be enough time. Duly respect the Spurs team and it's ability to win and play consistently away from home. That being said however, believe the Lakers have focused properly on the right way to stop the big fundamental as well as the little fundamental and without those two contributing heavily, the Spurs may find things difficult in another important game for the Lakers. Hence,

1* Los Angeles -4.5

Overall Unit Record YTD: (181-147.5)(+33.5) 5*(1-0)(+5.0) 3*(10-6)(+10.2) 1*(146-115-6)(+18.3)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (157-121-6) 56.47%

NBA Regular Season Final Record YTD: (17-12-2)(+5.8)
NBA Playoff Record YTD: (7-7-1)(-0.7)

Plays are rated 1*-5*

Good Luck All.
 

Rx Senior
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OldManTed,

This series is getting played out exactly like it was last year. Last year LAL won by 4. I am thinking that the same thing will happen and LAL win a close one. And both teams will come out and play there hardest in tight defensive game. Most people do not want to associate the correlation of last year’s teams and this year’s team. I think there is a decent correlation, as both teams seemed to have improved equally.

This is a tough one to call. I am wondering what kind of adjustment SAS will make and will probably lean to the Lakers without making a play.

I always wonder if my mind is polluted with the fact that I am a Lakers fan. I always try to avoid wagering on them.

Good luck.
Ku
 

L5Y, USC is 4-0 vs SEC, outscoring them 167-48!!!
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I too am a diehard fan. And as always we think the Lakers will bounce since they're always known to have the ability (and the talent) to "turn it on".

Personally, I think the impressive game 3 victory at home was a perfect bait for the betting public (not including yourself OldMan) to jump back and pound the bandwagon.

If this team wasn't the Hollywood Lakers and instead the Washington Bullets, based on their past history, do you think we'd believe they'd come out and keep it consistent?? Hell NO!!! We'd be fading em knowing they'd pull the Jeckle & Hyde act like they've done all season long!

Instead, it's the PrimeTime Lakers who in one way or another, we're rooting for em to succeed. (well maybe not everyone)

In either case, I'd rather pass since you never know who the fuque is gonna show up. I mean bring me one person who can say they've made money on the Lakers this season. Unless you've consistently faded em, or maybe bet them only twice this year, your probably in the majority who've lost money on L.A.

As for me I'd lean towards the Spurs as the logical choice. Most likely, I'll pass.
 
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Ted: I like the Lakers as well, I think they will bring same intensity to game 4 as game 3. I am also leaning towards DET +2 1/2- I do believe Larry Brown will light fire under their asses after coming out flat and with no emotion in game 3. I look for Det to be in the entire game and inch out a "W" tonight. GL Ted tonight and always CASH
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Pour your misery down on me
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Ted,Iam going to pass on tonites game. Curious to see which laker team shows up.I have s.a. for the series.
thanks for the input and good luck!
 

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Been out for the day and just got back and read replys to this thread. Thoughtful responses once again and more importantly noticed we have one agreement and three passes. Would just like to comment that I am pleased to see the mixture of decisions plus importantly the restraint when not comfortable with the team's performance. I applaud your judgment.
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Hey Everyone!

THe one game I fear the most is the Det & N.J. game! I feel the line is a little fishy. NJ winning two days ago with line at 3.5, now today they are favored only by 2. It just scares me that they won by 18pts. Now to only to be favored by 2. Any thoughts to make me understand for I am very new to NBA. Thank you.
 

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I do like LAL to win tonight! It seems to me when Coby gets out of court, he tends to play very focus, because he takes it out on the court(basketball). And it doesn't seem to distract him at all!
 

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Newbee_KC:

First let me say that I have no opinion on this particular game but do believe the line movement to be a reflection of a strong belief that the Pistons still possess the overall player match-up edge in this series and will be trying tonight to place themselves in a position to close out the Nets in Game 5. That being said, they still have to play the game and don't let the line movement deter you from your own personal decision.
 

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Ted-Good luck on your play tonight. I love the Spurs tonight, looking at a big bounce-back effort. It should be a good one.
 

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FairWarning:

Best of luck to you as well tonight. Both games should be highly entertaining with each of the four series' all currently sitting at 2-1, the playoffs are beginning to heat up. Enjoy!
 

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Man, Ted!

That was a hard win! But I'll definitely take it. Great job! Woo Hoo! Can't wait for your picks tomorrow.
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Another fine call Ted! Unforunately for me I threw Det in so I splitt, am I missing something with Det? Or did NJ all of a sudden match up with them, sometimes the nba can be frustrating, keep up the great work Ted. CASH
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