Decided to write this thread early as I am comfortable with the spot and have already taken the number as I anticipate line movement in this game. But before providing my reasoning on the Detroit/New Jersey game let me make a brief comment about Game 1 of the Indiana/Miami match-up.
As expected, most of the action has gone on the Pacers, but this is a rather unique game situation. I can't recall the last time a team had to wait 12 days to play it's next playoff game. In most cases, a lengthy layoff, usually shorter than this, results in the team being a bit off, at least early, in it's shooting, as practice is never the same as game like speed and pace. No doubt the Pacers are talented, deeper, more experienced, and play great defense and somewhere during the game will adjust to the pace of the game. The question is when. The Heat meanwhile come off an intense seven game battle with the Hornets, are young, talented, not exceptionally deep but pace prepared as they only played two days ago. However, their enthusiam over beating the Hornets in the seventh game was obvious and although they are happy to move on, will they be mentally prepared for the Pacers? With these thoughts in mind, I don't have either an opinion or a lean on the side or total of this game as there are too many questions to be answered. Thus, I will be passing this game and watching for any match-up edges that might present themselves for future games in the series.
Now as for the Detroit/New Jersey game, I have had to rethink this series after carefully watching Game 1. I fully anticipated a highly competitive, intensely fought series, but there were a number of alarming things that were apparent in the first game. I will run through some of my observations. There is a distinct edge in player match-ups to the Pistons. Inside, at center, Ben Wallace clearly dominates the post and Jason Collins is of almost little to no value. Ben is able to both score as well as dominate the boards and play great defense. At forward, Rasheed Wallace and Kenyon Martin appear to balance each other out but I noticed that the height advantage of Wallace is clear as he is able to shoot over Martin as well as keep Martin from getting inside. Thus, I noticed Martin is having to try and create more plays then being able to set-up inside awaiting a pass from Jason Kidd or Kerry Kittles. At the other forward, Tayshaun Prince has quickly come of age and his length is causing counterpart Richard Jefferson problems in trying to drive to the hoop. Jefferson surprisingly looked very tentative in his outside shooting in Game 1 and that must improve if the Nets are to have any chance in this series. He was the teams leading scorer during the regular season. Prince meanwhile is driving and scoring as well as hitting his open looks. Overall, the inside presence of Wallace, Wallace and Prince both offensively and defensively is very, very formidable and has caused the Nets to try and create from the outside which is not to their strength. At guard, Jason Kidd has an overall edge over Chauncy Billups, but his edge is somewhat nullified by his inability to find open teammates inside for scoring opportunities. He was constantly looking inside and often had to take late jump shots as nothing was available and his outside shooting can be suspect at times. Kerry Kittles provided an outlet for him and started well but it is difficult to continue to shoot long range successfully on the road. Meanwhile, counterpart Richard Hamilton was able to find some, but not a lot, of room to make some plays both in driving and from the perimeter. Off the bench, the Pistons bring Okur, Hunter, and Williamson while the Nets bring Rodgers, Harris and Williams. Once again the inside edge and shooting edge goes to the Pistons. The Nets are at their best when they can get out and run on missed shots, but it was noticeable how quickly the Pistons got back so the Nets had very few easy opportunities. Also, the Nets players were forced to be individually creative because of the dominant inside presence and length of the Pistons. This is far from their strength. Overall, the Pistons hold a huge edge in personnel match-ups, bench depth, defense and style of play that takes the Nets out of their game. Give credit to the Net defense, which itself is very good, in holding the Pistons to 78 points. That said, however, from my view, it was no accident that the Nets could only manage 56 points. Suspect they can and will score more in Game 2, but the Pistons seem on a mission to hold their opponents below 70 points in each game if they can and in this match-up seem to be capable of doing so as the last regular season game, they beat the Nets 89-71 as well. The line on this game is currently lower then the closing line of 5.5 or 6 in Game 1, so very fair indeed. Hence,
1* Detroit -5
Overall Unit Record YTD: (179-146.4)(+32.6) 5*(1-0)(+5.0) 3*(10-6)(+10.2) 1*(144-114-5)(+17.4)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (155-120-5) 56.36%
NBA Regular Season Final Record YTD: (17-12-2)(+5.8)
NBA Playoff Record YTD: (5-6)(-1.6)
Plays are rated 1*-5*
Good Luck All.
As expected, most of the action has gone on the Pacers, but this is a rather unique game situation. I can't recall the last time a team had to wait 12 days to play it's next playoff game. In most cases, a lengthy layoff, usually shorter than this, results in the team being a bit off, at least early, in it's shooting, as practice is never the same as game like speed and pace. No doubt the Pacers are talented, deeper, more experienced, and play great defense and somewhere during the game will adjust to the pace of the game. The question is when. The Heat meanwhile come off an intense seven game battle with the Hornets, are young, talented, not exceptionally deep but pace prepared as they only played two days ago. However, their enthusiam over beating the Hornets in the seventh game was obvious and although they are happy to move on, will they be mentally prepared for the Pacers? With these thoughts in mind, I don't have either an opinion or a lean on the side or total of this game as there are too many questions to be answered. Thus, I will be passing this game and watching for any match-up edges that might present themselves for future games in the series.
Now as for the Detroit/New Jersey game, I have had to rethink this series after carefully watching Game 1. I fully anticipated a highly competitive, intensely fought series, but there were a number of alarming things that were apparent in the first game. I will run through some of my observations. There is a distinct edge in player match-ups to the Pistons. Inside, at center, Ben Wallace clearly dominates the post and Jason Collins is of almost little to no value. Ben is able to both score as well as dominate the boards and play great defense. At forward, Rasheed Wallace and Kenyon Martin appear to balance each other out but I noticed that the height advantage of Wallace is clear as he is able to shoot over Martin as well as keep Martin from getting inside. Thus, I noticed Martin is having to try and create more plays then being able to set-up inside awaiting a pass from Jason Kidd or Kerry Kittles. At the other forward, Tayshaun Prince has quickly come of age and his length is causing counterpart Richard Jefferson problems in trying to drive to the hoop. Jefferson surprisingly looked very tentative in his outside shooting in Game 1 and that must improve if the Nets are to have any chance in this series. He was the teams leading scorer during the regular season. Prince meanwhile is driving and scoring as well as hitting his open looks. Overall, the inside presence of Wallace, Wallace and Prince both offensively and defensively is very, very formidable and has caused the Nets to try and create from the outside which is not to their strength. At guard, Jason Kidd has an overall edge over Chauncy Billups, but his edge is somewhat nullified by his inability to find open teammates inside for scoring opportunities. He was constantly looking inside and often had to take late jump shots as nothing was available and his outside shooting can be suspect at times. Kerry Kittles provided an outlet for him and started well but it is difficult to continue to shoot long range successfully on the road. Meanwhile, counterpart Richard Hamilton was able to find some, but not a lot, of room to make some plays both in driving and from the perimeter. Off the bench, the Pistons bring Okur, Hunter, and Williamson while the Nets bring Rodgers, Harris and Williams. Once again the inside edge and shooting edge goes to the Pistons. The Nets are at their best when they can get out and run on missed shots, but it was noticeable how quickly the Pistons got back so the Nets had very few easy opportunities. Also, the Nets players were forced to be individually creative because of the dominant inside presence and length of the Pistons. This is far from their strength. Overall, the Pistons hold a huge edge in personnel match-ups, bench depth, defense and style of play that takes the Nets out of their game. Give credit to the Net defense, which itself is very good, in holding the Pistons to 78 points. That said, however, from my view, it was no accident that the Nets could only manage 56 points. Suspect they can and will score more in Game 2, but the Pistons seem on a mission to hold their opponents below 70 points in each game if they can and in this match-up seem to be capable of doing so as the last regular season game, they beat the Nets 89-71 as well. The line on this game is currently lower then the closing line of 5.5 or 6 in Game 1, so very fair indeed. Hence,
1* Detroit -5
Overall Unit Record YTD: (179-146.4)(+32.6) 5*(1-0)(+5.0) 3*(10-6)(+10.2) 1*(144-114-5)(+17.4)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (155-120-5) 56.36%
NBA Regular Season Final Record YTD: (17-12-2)(+5.8)
NBA Playoff Record YTD: (5-6)(-1.6)
Plays are rated 1*-5*
Good Luck All.
