Oldmans Pick For Friday 5/21/04

[oldmanTED]

Decided to write this thread early as I have made my play already on the first game of the Western Conference Finals and my sense is that the line may move in this game, although not completely certain. I am comfortable with the play at its current price and need only be correct on the winning team.

With Minnesota coming off a hard fought seven game series with Sacramento and only having one day to try and get mentally as well as physically prepared to play Los Angeles with little time to prepare any kind of game plan, and seeing the jubilation of the Wolves in just reaching the Conference Finals, find it hard to imagine that Minnesota can be properly prepared to take on a rested Laker team that gained continuous momentum, team confidence and chemistry, game by game, after falling behind the Spurs 2-0. No doubt the Lakers have been preparing for either possible opponent and should come to the game more focused on trying to take the first game from the Wolves before Minnesota can get their game legs under them. Player matchups will sort themselves out as the series unfolds, so this is more a situational play given the current set of circumstances. Hence,

1* L.A. Lakers Ev

Overall Unit Record YTD: (183-150.8)(+32.2) 5*(1-0)(+5.0) 3*(10-7)(+6.9) 1*(148-115-7)(+20.3)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (159-122-7) 56.58%

NBA Regular Season Final Record YTD: (17-12-2)(+5.8)
NBA Playoff Record YTD: (9-8-2)(-2.0)

Plays are rated 1*-5*

Good Luck All.

 

[jwblue]

Wow..I can't believe the Lakers are EV in this one. I am pouring money into this game.

IS

 

[bubba-sc]

I was wondering if there was a line out yet on fridays game at Minny (my cable connexion has been up and down this evening), as before tonite's action, I had pre-forecasted a line of TWolves -2 and a 185 total. Probably that total may seem high given the defensive nature of the postseason so far in '04....
....I do now see on nss.net's Sportstracker that Feist has a line of EVEN with total of 183½
now. Tuff to call, but may go against my own hunch on the total and play it under

 

[Mr.Leisure]

I need to open an account at oly.I`d like to bet this early and none of my 5 books have this up yet.Hope it doesn`t move up to much.

 

[oldirtyku]

Ted,

I agree. I think the Lakers take one of the first 2 games and go home 1-1. I am thinking that game 1 is good chance to steal homecourt advantage b/c of the Mini rest and emotional factors assocaited with playing a game 7.

I am not sure how Mini is 3-1 vs lakers straright up in regular season. They have no answer in the middle for Shaq. Ervin Johnson and Michael Olowokandi? are u kidding me? Shaq will have to play 0 defense. I am thinking the Lakers can roll as long as there interest is there. If they lose focus the series will go on for a longer time.

Ku

 

[oldirtyku]

Also, no way Hassel can slow kobe. If he gets into a zone look for lakers to make a statement.

Ku

 

[oldmanTED]

Lost some line value since posting this thread early. Always try to get the best number and with that being said, due to some value lost, a corresponding reduction in the amount played at the current number is recommended.

Have looked more since posting at the player match-ups, and do see some significant possible problems for the Wolves. In the interior, agree with oldirtyku, that there is no presence to stop or even slow down O'Neal. Bryant is a player with great lateral movement and the ability to create. Respect Hassel's defense on Peja in the last series, but Peja is best as a spot up shooter and not on the move like Bryant. Cassell will still not be 100% tonight with a bad back and expect Payton to be able to stay with him defensively as well as take him down low and score on him. Garnett will be played by Malone who did a decent job using his strength in guarding Duncan. KG will certainly be a presence regardless. Experience of the Laker bench is notable here as well. Just see a Laker team that has raised it's level of play during the last four games with the Spurs, particularly defensively and team intensity. Throughout the week they have been mentally preparing themselves for their next opponent while the Wolves had to remain focused on the Kings. Tough to shift full intensity to the next opponent with only one day in between. Yesterday, the team would still be feeling good about having advanced past the Kings. Today, would be a walk through for tonight's game. I don't expect the Wolves to be tired, but just not ready to match the focus of a Laker team that has been preparing all week for Game 1 of the Conference Finals to begin. Still like the play.

 

[Mr.Leisure]

Nice call on the lakers! Thanks for sharing another winner.I have a feeling you are going to go on a roll.
MR. LEISURE

 

[GLJJNOVA]

Nice hit Ted!

Congrats
GP

 

[cashflowmatters]

Ted: Another fine job! As always do appreciate your efforts regardless of out come, but even more so when you NAIL it!!! Ragards CASH

 

[Newbee_KC]

Ted!

Great job!