Coming off a 2-3-1 day, losing both our football totals plays which appeared solid at half. San Francisco 14-14 at the half only to stay under the total of 44.5 and Virginia 17-13 at the half only to stay under the total of 54.5. The push was with Missouri +2. Our sides were with New Jersey +4.5 and our teaser with New England and Philadelphia but a loss with Kentucky.
Today we focus only on those NFL games that have playoff implications. Different than yesterday, where New England and Philadelphia looked like solid plays going in and Seattle was questionable, today we take a little care as the lines will be overinflated on some of the teams that are marginal as to their abilities. So let's look at these games.
St.Louis is playing for home field advantage playing a Detroit team with limited talent. Probably a win but laying 10.5+ on the road is always delicate in the NFL
Cincinnati is playing to try and win the AFC North is playing at home and playing a team that can jump up and bite you when you least expect it. Plus they need Baltimore to lose to Pittsburgh. Laying 8 for this team is questionable.
Tennessee is playing to win the AFC South but is playing the defending World Champions who still bring talent to the field so even though playing at home this is no gimme. Plus, they need Indianapolis to lose to Houston. Laying 7 is marginal in this situation as well.
Dallas is really playing for next to nothing but losing could very well end up sending Seattle into the playoffs if Green Bay and Minnesota both win. It would then all come down to the Baltimore/Pittsburgh game. Who would the Cowboys rather have make the playoffs, Seattle or Green Bay? Their motivation is questionable and they're laying 2 to New Orleans on the road. Careful.
Kansas City is playing for next to nothing and can't see them playing their regulars for very long against Chicago. Laying 7 at home is about right but are they worth a play?
Indianapolis is playing to try and win the AFC South and is traveling on the road to play Houston. Laying 7.5 here doesn't appear too bad as the motivation is strong and the Texans have not played very well since the loss of QB David Carr.
Carolina has already won the NFC South and has little to play for other than seeding position. They travel to New York and are laying 4.5. Possible play as the Giants are playing so poorly but again motivation is questionable.
Minnesota is playing to try and win the NFC North and is traveling to Arizona. They control their own destiny with a win so motivation is no issue. Laying 7.5 on the road to the Cardinals seems not too bad but Arizona has been a different team at home.
Denver is really playing for possible seeding but their motivation may only be marginal and are more likely to want to remain healthy than butt heads with Green Bay in Lambeau. They're getting 7 which would normally be a take but again what level of effort will they bring.
Green Bay is playing to either win the NFC North or get a wild card position. Their motivation is not in question here but Favre didn't practice due to attending his father's funeral and he joined the team very late. Laying 7 against a capable Denver squad, even though maybe not motivated, is questionable.
Baltimore is playing to try and win the AFC North and controls it's own destiny so motivation will be very high, but laying 8 against a Pittsburgh team that continues to play hard is a bit high for team with a one dimensional attack.
Thus, the feeling here is that many of the teams mentioned are in situations that are not as easy as they first appear and their abilities may not be enough to overcome some of the inflated lines. Hence, we are going to be a bit careful here and start with one play. Might add upon further review but probably will sit tight and wait for the playoffs to begin. Hence,
1* Two Team 7 Point Teaser with Indianapolis (-0.5) and Minnesota (-0.5)
Overall Unit Record YTD (All Sports): (40-23.2) 63.29% 3*(5-1)(+11.7) 1*(25-18-2)(+5.1)
Overall W/L Record YTD (All Sports): (30-19-2) 61.22%
NFL Record YTD: (5-5-1)(-2.8)
NCAAF Record YTD: (9-2)(+12.8) (Bowl Game Record 7-2 Included)
NBA Record YTD: (5-3)(+3.7)
NCAAB Record YTD: (11-9-1)(+3.1)
Plays are rated 1*-5*
Good Luck All.
[This message was edited by oldmanTED on December 28, 2003 at 12:28 AM.]
[This message was edited by oldmanTED on December 28, 2003 at 12:31 AM.]
Today we focus only on those NFL games that have playoff implications. Different than yesterday, where New England and Philadelphia looked like solid plays going in and Seattle was questionable, today we take a little care as the lines will be overinflated on some of the teams that are marginal as to their abilities. So let's look at these games.
St.Louis is playing for home field advantage playing a Detroit team with limited talent. Probably a win but laying 10.5+ on the road is always delicate in the NFL
Cincinnati is playing to try and win the AFC North is playing at home and playing a team that can jump up and bite you when you least expect it. Plus they need Baltimore to lose to Pittsburgh. Laying 8 for this team is questionable.
Tennessee is playing to win the AFC South but is playing the defending World Champions who still bring talent to the field so even though playing at home this is no gimme. Plus, they need Indianapolis to lose to Houston. Laying 7 is marginal in this situation as well.
Dallas is really playing for next to nothing but losing could very well end up sending Seattle into the playoffs if Green Bay and Minnesota both win. It would then all come down to the Baltimore/Pittsburgh game. Who would the Cowboys rather have make the playoffs, Seattle or Green Bay? Their motivation is questionable and they're laying 2 to New Orleans on the road. Careful.
Kansas City is playing for next to nothing and can't see them playing their regulars for very long against Chicago. Laying 7 at home is about right but are they worth a play?
Indianapolis is playing to try and win the AFC South and is traveling on the road to play Houston. Laying 7.5 here doesn't appear too bad as the motivation is strong and the Texans have not played very well since the loss of QB David Carr.
Carolina has already won the NFC South and has little to play for other than seeding position. They travel to New York and are laying 4.5. Possible play as the Giants are playing so poorly but again motivation is questionable.
Minnesota is playing to try and win the NFC North and is traveling to Arizona. They control their own destiny with a win so motivation is no issue. Laying 7.5 on the road to the Cardinals seems not too bad but Arizona has been a different team at home.
Denver is really playing for possible seeding but their motivation may only be marginal and are more likely to want to remain healthy than butt heads with Green Bay in Lambeau. They're getting 7 which would normally be a take but again what level of effort will they bring.
Green Bay is playing to either win the NFC North or get a wild card position. Their motivation is not in question here but Favre didn't practice due to attending his father's funeral and he joined the team very late. Laying 7 against a capable Denver squad, even though maybe not motivated, is questionable.
Baltimore is playing to try and win the AFC North and controls it's own destiny so motivation will be very high, but laying 8 against a Pittsburgh team that continues to play hard is a bit high for team with a one dimensional attack.
Thus, the feeling here is that many of the teams mentioned are in situations that are not as easy as they first appear and their abilities may not be enough to overcome some of the inflated lines. Hence, we are going to be a bit careful here and start with one play. Might add upon further review but probably will sit tight and wait for the playoffs to begin. Hence,
1* Two Team 7 Point Teaser with Indianapolis (-0.5) and Minnesota (-0.5)
Overall Unit Record YTD (All Sports): (40-23.2) 63.29% 3*(5-1)(+11.7) 1*(25-18-2)(+5.1)
Overall W/L Record YTD (All Sports): (30-19-2) 61.22%
NFL Record YTD: (5-5-1)(-2.8)
NCAAF Record YTD: (9-2)(+12.8) (Bowl Game Record 7-2 Included)
NBA Record YTD: (5-3)(+3.7)
NCAAB Record YTD: (11-9-1)(+3.1)
Plays are rated 1*-5*
Good Luck All.
[This message was edited by oldmanTED on December 28, 2003 at 12:28 AM.]
[This message was edited by oldmanTED on December 28, 2003 at 12:31 AM.]
