Oldmans Bowl Picks For Wednesday 12/31

oldmanTED · Dec 30, 2003

Coming off a 2-1 day, winning our upgraded 3* play on Washington State (Reference forum thread) in the Holiday Bowl and Fresno State/UCLA under the total in the Silicon Valley Bowl, but losing on Navy/Texas Tech over the total in the Houston Bowl. Because there are five bowl games today, we will post our brief analysis of the first two games and be back later with the remaining games.

Music City Bowl: Wisconsin vs Auburn

These two teams are very similar in that they have strong running games supported by the aerial attack. Wisconsin has the edge at QB and WR but Auburn has the better overall defense. Special teams are pretty close. Auburn has played the stronger of the two schedules and will probably have greater fan support. Feeling here is that in a closely contested contest, we will side with the team with the better overall defense. Hence,

1* Auburn -3

Sun Bowl: Minnesota vs Oregon

Minnesota is an explosive team with tremendous talent at all skilled positions but their defense leaves a lot to be desired as they have been scored on relatively easily. Oregon finished the season playing it's best football and did beat Michigan early in the year. Oregon does not possess the offensive weapons equivalent to the Golphers but does have a much better defense particularly against the run. Expectations are that scoring will not be a problem in this game but again we look at the team with the better overall defense that should be able to trade scores and either stay within the number or win outright. Hence,

1* Oregon +4.5

Overall Unit Record YTD (All Sports): (46-27.6) 62.50% 3*(6-1)(+14.7) 1*(28-22-2)(+3.7)
Overall W/L Record YTD (All Sports): (34-23-2) 59.65%
NCAAF Record YTD: (11-4)(+14.6) (Bowl Game Record 9-4 Included)
NFL Record YTD: (6-6-1)(-2.9)
NCAAB Record YTD: (12-9-1)(+4.1)
NBA Record YTD: (5-4)(+2.6)

Plays are rated 1*-5*

Good Luck All

oldmanTED · Dec 31, 2003

Happy New Year!!!!!

Just wanted to wish each of you the very best in the coming year. Wishing you all good health and happiness in your life's endeavors.

Good Luck All!

CoachLT · Dec 31, 2003

Thanks for sharing Ted! LT

moneymario · Dec 31, 2003

Hi Ted,

I am starting to think I sould take AUBURN, I am with your play on OREGON, Do you think Auburn is going to run right over the WISCONSIN DEFENSE or so I stay with wisky at 3 & the hook???

Thanks in advance

oldmanTED · Dec 31, 2003

Mario:

This is a tight game and not easy to call. I don't believe that Auburn will dominate or run over the Wisconsin defense. I just feel the Tigers have a better defense than the Badgers. If you like Wisconsin, stay with it. I am not super strong on this game.

moneymario · Dec 31, 2003

TED:

Thanks for the thr reply, I just wante dto confirm on your post it does look tight I did just bet Whisky and under 46

oldmanTED · Dec 31, 2003

As promised, back with two additional games with one more to come later on in the day, so check back throughout the day.

Liberty Bowl: Utah vs Southern Mississippi

This game matches Utah playing out of the MWC against Southern Mississippi playing out of CUSA. Belief here is that Utah holds the edge both offensively and defensively in this game. Utah's excellent aerial attack spearheaded by QB Alex Smith (67% completions with only 13 sacks) will pick apart Eagles aggressive blitz packages and that Utes stingy defense will throttle Eagles conventional offense with a tough secondary only allowing 51% completions. Hence,

1* Utah -2.5

Independence Bowl: Arkansas vs Missouri

Arkansas plays out of the tough SEC and Missouri plays out of the Big 12. Arkansas attacks with a balanced two dimensional game featuring QB Jones and RB Cobbs and has a quick attack defense. Missouri features QB Smith and RB Abron and has an improving defense. Feeling here is that the Hogs have played in tougher hard nose battles and their defensive speed will slow down Tigers attack, meanwhile experienced balance attack of Hogs will cause problems for Missouri team that has given up points in bunches at times this year. Hence,

1* Arkansas -2.5

Reminder to check back a little later for the San Francisco Bowl.

Good Luck All

SSI · Dec 31, 2003

hi ted, im on wiscy and oregon,, unsure on later games at this time..

oldmanTED · Dec 31, 2003

As promised, back with analysis and selection for the last bowl game of the day.

San Francisco Bowl: Boston College vs Colorado State

Boston College plays in the Big East and Colorado State plays in the Mountain West. Boston College has a balanced offensive attack that finished the season very well beating Rutgers and Virginia Tech on the road after playing well by beating Notre Dame and West Virginia while losing to Pittsburgh but competing well throughout. Colorado State's opposition was significantly inferior to that of the Eagles and CSU did not distinguish itself in conference play. The key is the health of QB Van Pelt who broke his hand in the last game of the year. He practiced on Saturday and following the practice his hand was swollen although he said it felt a lot better. Even with a healthy Van Pelt, the feeling here is that Boston College is the far superior team and the current line is excellent value. Hence,

1* Boston College Even

Good Luck All

Co-Captain · Dec 31, 2003

Aloha Ted, I am glad that we are on the same side in 3 of the 5 games today. I at least I can come out on the winning end this time. GL to you and Aloha CC.

oldmanTED · Dec 31, 2003

SSI:

Good luck with your plays today and have a Happy New Year!!!!!!

oldmanTED · Dec 31, 2003

Guys:

With a lot of tomorrow's games getting off to early starts and no doubt many of us wanting to enjoy our New Year's Eve tonight, I've decided that I will begin my thread for tomorrow's analysis and selections a little later today. I will try to complete my analysis of at least the first two games and possibly three, leaving the remaining games to be analyized tomorrow. Look for a separate thread from this one. Of course, I won't have my up to date record as today's games would not yet be completed.

One additional item. Tomorrow's card includes the game that I have my strongest opinion of the entire bowl season. I don't know the rating that I will attach to this game, but it will be at least a 3* play for me which are currently 6-1 YTD. I will wait to see what line value is available before deciding. This is in no way an attempt to hype my play as I believe you all know that is not within my style or character. I simply wanted to let you know in advance that this play will be tomorrow. There is no quarantee on any game. So no matter how strong I may feel does not mean anyone should unload on this game. Disciplined money management is the key to success so play accordingly please.

Be back a little later and hope everyone is enjoying their day. Good luck all.

THEGOV. · Dec 31, 2003

Ted, love your picks and write-ups, but have a question. You rate your plays 1-5, and I have never seen a 2 or higher out of you.None of your picks rated a 2 or 3 or higher? Just curious. Continued good luck!

oldmanTED · Dec 31, 2003

The Gov:

Please review my record above. Since posting, I have had seven 3 unit plays going 6-1. One of them was Washington State yesterday. Throughout an entire season, I will normally have approximately a half dozen 5 unit plays. Since posting, no play has warranted this level too date. During the regular season, you would tend to see 2 and 4 unit plays as well. I hope this answers your question.

SSI · Dec 31, 2003

ted has put up some 3* already, i believe wash st was his last one.. nice 2 wins today ted for you, im only 1-1 but have arkansas tonight.. any chance of you upping arkansas?

oldmanTED · Dec 31, 2003

SSI:

As you can see I'm on the Hogs as well. Let's bring this one home together. I will be posting my thread for tomorrow's first two games shortly and then sitting back to enjoy the evening games. Good luck to you.

oldmanTED · Dec 31, 2003

SSI:

I'm sorry for not seeing your question regarding bumping Arkansas. The game is obviously underway now so the point is mute, but I wanted to let you know that there was no chance of me bumping the play. The line had moved to -3.5 thus line value was lost as I got in at -2.5.

SSI · Dec 31, 2003

thanks ted, ive always appreciated your thoughts.. how about BC, i havent played the late game yet.. i know your already on BC, any thoughts on bumping them.. their seniors have never lost a bowl game and dont intend to start this year...

oldmanTED · Dec 31, 2003

SSI:

Under Shrink's thread I identified Boston College as my strongest play of the day. Of all the games today, it would be the only one that I would bump. At this stage, I may choose not to but for no other reason then I am satisfied with how this day has unfolded and tomorrow is another day. If you decide to bump, I support the idea. Whatever you decide to do, as always, good luck to you.