Decided to start this thread because as many of you may know, I currently hold a live future play on Georgia Tech +867 to win the championship and in my previous thread was asked who I might play if I didn't hold this play.
Let me begin as I had responded to that question previously, that prior to the games on Saturday, it was my intention that should the Yellowjackets win outright, I would make a play on them in the championship as I expected them to be about a 7 point dog against Connecticut and a 6 point dog against Duke. At first look, prior to the games, this play appeared comfortable to me, however after watching each game closely, I observed some things in each game that I would like to share with you. I will share some discussion about the current line as well.
So let's begin with Georgia Tech. The Yellowjackets were a 5 point dog when I made my play and I was very comfortable with their ability to match-up well with Oklahoma State and felt there was decent line value as my numbers showed the line should have been 1 or 2. The game played out pretty much as I envisioned but there were some very troubling things that I noted. First, Elder was not as mobile as I expected. He could not elevate like he would at full strength and his shooting clearly suffered due to his inability to explode or elevate. He played 19 minutes and was 1-4 with 2 points and 2 rebounds. Plus, by the end of the game he was noticeably limping more then at the beginning of the game. Second Muhammad was suffering from tendonitis in his right knee and he likewise was unable to explode and elevate as he would at full strenth and was also limping at the end of the game. He played 15 minutes and was 1-3 with 4 points and 1 rebound. Last, Moore, who is a good 3 point shooter, didn't even look to take a shot, even when open. He played 15 minutes and was 0-1 with 0 points and 0 rebounds. All three of these guys are important to the success of the Yellowjackets rotation.
Now to Connecticut. The Huskies were very impressive playing without Okafur for 16 minutes in the first half, particularly Boone, Anderson and Villanueva. They had excellent quickness to the ball and withstood Duke's very good defense. They continued to crash the boards and kepy themselves in the game while awaiting the second half. Once Okafur was able to play in the second half, the emotional level that he brought to the game was dramatic. The Huskies played at a very high level in this game and had Okafur not been in foul trouble early, this game may not have been close.
Now, looking at this match-up, I see some problems for the Yellowjackets. Remember, I am fully aware that Georgia Tech dominated Connecticut in the Pre-Season NIT, winning 77-61. Thus, my future play. But, current health and form cannot be overlooked here. When these teams met in November, Okafur was not completely healthy suffering from back spasms. Now, he appears completely healthy and seems to have more emotion then I've ever seem from him. The problems I envision for the Yellowjackets include both inside and outside issues. First, I fully respect the play of Schenscher but feel that he will face a formidable task not only against Okafur but the collapsing defense of Boone and others and could very well get into foul trouble which would totally change the Jackets level of play. Thus, the Jackets may have to rely more on outside shooting then usual as the shot blocking capability of the Huskies is significant. With Elder hobbled and Moore not shooting, the Jackets must rely on Lewis and Bynum, both very capable, but it shortens their rotation of interchangeable talent. Inside, Muhammad and McHenry will find it more difficult to score with the active nature of the Huskies big men and closed down guard defense. Jack may be more than capable of handling the defensive pressure the Huskies bring but he won't be able to drive and dish or score inside as he has been able to do in the last three games. Georgia Tech's defense is one of quality and good rotation to the ball, but with the inside presence of Okafur, will not be able to sag back enough leaving Gordon open. Rebounding will be more difficult due to the active nature of the Huskies bigs.
This brings us to the current line. As stated, I anticipated that the Yellowjackets would be +7, but instead are currently at +6 or +5.5 at many shops. Thus, the line value in my opinion actually favors the Huskies. Given the current health and form of both the Yellowjackets as well as the Huskies, had this oldman not had the future play of Georgia Tech, my lean would be toward Connecticut. That being said, I have decided that I will partially hedge my future play to assure a winning profit as a result of Georgia Tech's win over Oklahoma State and leave a partial remaining interest in the future. In most cases, I don't hedge. But, feel that in this current situation, taking the sure profit is called for and thus my decision. I will buy 5 points and basically take Connecticut at -210 to complete the hedge and take some profit but leave some interest with part of the original future play. I will have no other play on the game, either side or total, and will complete the college hoops season on a winning note.
Last, I would like to present my final record for the college basketball season. This is presented somewhat split as many of you know that I spent the first two weeks of the NCAA/NIT tournaments in Las Vegas and detailed the results of my plays while away in my thread dated March 29th. I hope that you trust in my integrity and honesty. My one regret is that I didn't take my laptop to Vegas and share my plays with the forum. For that, I extend my apologies to you. Shown below is my final record. After hitting a season low in late January with a YTD record of (26-33) (-11.0), the season ended up decently over the long haul at (98-82-2) (+5.1). As you know, each of my units represents 1% of my bankroll, so a 5.1% return on investment over 4 months, although nothing spectacular, is decent.
Overall NCAAB Record YTD: (98-82-2)(+5.1)
RX Posted NCAAB Record YTD: (81-78-2)(-7.5)(Includes 1-0 in the NCAA Tournament)
Las Vegas NCAA/NIT Tournament Record YTD: (17-4)(+12.6).
I have enjoyed sharing this college hoops season with each of you and appreciated all your replys and comments and hope I have helped somewhat my fellow RX members, posters and viewers. Best of luck to all of you in the future and see you soon in the NBA Forum for the playoffs.
Let me begin as I had responded to that question previously, that prior to the games on Saturday, it was my intention that should the Yellowjackets win outright, I would make a play on them in the championship as I expected them to be about a 7 point dog against Connecticut and a 6 point dog against Duke. At first look, prior to the games, this play appeared comfortable to me, however after watching each game closely, I observed some things in each game that I would like to share with you. I will share some discussion about the current line as well.
So let's begin with Georgia Tech. The Yellowjackets were a 5 point dog when I made my play and I was very comfortable with their ability to match-up well with Oklahoma State and felt there was decent line value as my numbers showed the line should have been 1 or 2. The game played out pretty much as I envisioned but there were some very troubling things that I noted. First, Elder was not as mobile as I expected. He could not elevate like he would at full strength and his shooting clearly suffered due to his inability to explode or elevate. He played 19 minutes and was 1-4 with 2 points and 2 rebounds. Plus, by the end of the game he was noticeably limping more then at the beginning of the game. Second Muhammad was suffering from tendonitis in his right knee and he likewise was unable to explode and elevate as he would at full strenth and was also limping at the end of the game. He played 15 minutes and was 1-3 with 4 points and 1 rebound. Last, Moore, who is a good 3 point shooter, didn't even look to take a shot, even when open. He played 15 minutes and was 0-1 with 0 points and 0 rebounds. All three of these guys are important to the success of the Yellowjackets rotation.
Now to Connecticut. The Huskies were very impressive playing without Okafur for 16 minutes in the first half, particularly Boone, Anderson and Villanueva. They had excellent quickness to the ball and withstood Duke's very good defense. They continued to crash the boards and kepy themselves in the game while awaiting the second half. Once Okafur was able to play in the second half, the emotional level that he brought to the game was dramatic. The Huskies played at a very high level in this game and had Okafur not been in foul trouble early, this game may not have been close.
Now, looking at this match-up, I see some problems for the Yellowjackets. Remember, I am fully aware that Georgia Tech dominated Connecticut in the Pre-Season NIT, winning 77-61. Thus, my future play. But, current health and form cannot be overlooked here. When these teams met in November, Okafur was not completely healthy suffering from back spasms. Now, he appears completely healthy and seems to have more emotion then I've ever seem from him. The problems I envision for the Yellowjackets include both inside and outside issues. First, I fully respect the play of Schenscher but feel that he will face a formidable task not only against Okafur but the collapsing defense of Boone and others and could very well get into foul trouble which would totally change the Jackets level of play. Thus, the Jackets may have to rely more on outside shooting then usual as the shot blocking capability of the Huskies is significant. With Elder hobbled and Moore not shooting, the Jackets must rely on Lewis and Bynum, both very capable, but it shortens their rotation of interchangeable talent. Inside, Muhammad and McHenry will find it more difficult to score with the active nature of the Huskies big men and closed down guard defense. Jack may be more than capable of handling the defensive pressure the Huskies bring but he won't be able to drive and dish or score inside as he has been able to do in the last three games. Georgia Tech's defense is one of quality and good rotation to the ball, but with the inside presence of Okafur, will not be able to sag back enough leaving Gordon open. Rebounding will be more difficult due to the active nature of the Huskies bigs.
This brings us to the current line. As stated, I anticipated that the Yellowjackets would be +7, but instead are currently at +6 or +5.5 at many shops. Thus, the line value in my opinion actually favors the Huskies. Given the current health and form of both the Yellowjackets as well as the Huskies, had this oldman not had the future play of Georgia Tech, my lean would be toward Connecticut. That being said, I have decided that I will partially hedge my future play to assure a winning profit as a result of Georgia Tech's win over Oklahoma State and leave a partial remaining interest in the future. In most cases, I don't hedge. But, feel that in this current situation, taking the sure profit is called for and thus my decision. I will buy 5 points and basically take Connecticut at -210 to complete the hedge and take some profit but leave some interest with part of the original future play. I will have no other play on the game, either side or total, and will complete the college hoops season on a winning note.
Last, I would like to present my final record for the college basketball season. This is presented somewhat split as many of you know that I spent the first two weeks of the NCAA/NIT tournaments in Las Vegas and detailed the results of my plays while away in my thread dated March 29th. I hope that you trust in my integrity and honesty. My one regret is that I didn't take my laptop to Vegas and share my plays with the forum. For that, I extend my apologies to you. Shown below is my final record. After hitting a season low in late January with a YTD record of (26-33) (-11.0), the season ended up decently over the long haul at (98-82-2) (+5.1). As you know, each of my units represents 1% of my bankroll, so a 5.1% return on investment over 4 months, although nothing spectacular, is decent.
Overall NCAAB Record YTD: (98-82-2)(+5.1)
RX Posted NCAAB Record YTD: (81-78-2)(-7.5)(Includes 1-0 in the NCAA Tournament)
Las Vegas NCAA/NIT Tournament Record YTD: (17-4)(+12.6).
I have enjoyed sharing this college hoops season with each of you and appreciated all your replys and comments and hope I have helped somewhat my fellow RX members, posters and viewers. Best of luck to all of you in the future and see you soon in the NBA Forum for the playoffs.
