(Old Topic, dated 08-16-2002) General Warning about the industry

[SanJose]

OK,

I READ JOE'S STATEMENT AND IT IS PRETTY DAMN CONSISTENT WITH WHAT I WAS TOLD BY A GUY I RESPECT IN COSTA RICA. NOW I'VE SEEN YOU PEOPLE JUMP ALL OVER JOE WITH THE 'WHERE'S THE PROOF' COMMENTS WHICH MAKE SENSE TO ME. SO MY QUESTION IS THE FOLLOWING:

WHAT WOULD YOU DO AS A POSTER IF YOU WERE TOLD INFORMATION THAT AGREES WITH WHAT JOE SAID, AND YOU RECEIVED IT FROM A PERSON YOU KNOW TO BE RELIABLE WHO WORKS IN THE BUSINESS, A PERSON YOU REALLY TRUST. THIS PERSON TOLD ME SOME TERRIFYING STUFF ABOUT THE BUSINESS IN GENERAL AND SOME STUFF ABOUT SPECIFIC BOOKS IN DEEP TROUBLE. BUT I CAN'T CONFIRM THIS MYSELF THROUGH INDEPENDENT SOURCES. WHAT DO YOU DO? DO YOU POST THE INFORMATION AND GET RIPPED THE WAY JOE DID, OR DO YOU SHUT YOUR MOUTH? IF I WERE TO POST INFO ABOUT SPECIFIC BOOKS AND IT PROVED WRONG, THAT WOULD BE UNFAIR, SO WHAT SHOULD I DO?

 

[acw]

Joe,

You are my man!
You just took the words out of my mouth!
I could not say it myself as posters may not take my words as serious as yours, though I am not even too sure about that, but let's assume it. More important The Shrink would blame me for creating too much trouble.
As you know I have this 100,000 pounds bet on the fact that 80% of Caribbean books will be out of business in five years time. Well the worst, which can happen to a book, is that everyone has a run on their bank accounts. Bravo!
Give me your bank account no.
I will give you a tip.

 

[coolhandJ.]

MAYBE JOE IS RIGHT I PLAY WITH GIBRALTAR I JUST GOT A CHECK LAST WEEK AND I AM EXPECTING ANOTHER NEXT WEEK.THIS IS WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE DONE.I HAD A CREDIT ACCOUNT I GOT IN A LITTLE TROUBLE I OWED 10 DIMES I PAYED IT ALL BACK SURE THIS MAJOR SPORTSBOOK HAD THERE AGENT CALLING ME.I WOULD LIKE TO GET TO KNOW THE BOYS UP STAIRS IN THIS BUSINESS AND LET THEM KNOW IF THEY F-CK AROUND WITH OUR MONEY THEY CAN BE DEALT WITH LIKE ANY PUNK ON THE STREET WHO TRIES TO PULL A FAST ONE.WHY SHOULD WE LOSE SLEEP OVER OUR MONEY I WANT THESE GUYS TO KNOW WHATS ITS LIKE IF THEY STIFF SOMEBODY OUT OF MONEY THEY WILL BE HANDLED LIKE THE OLD DAYS IN SOUTH BOSTON.SO SHRINK I THINK ITS FAIR IF A BOOK GOES UNDER YOU KNOW ALL THESE GUYS GO AHEAD AND POST THERE NAMES IN THIS FORUM WHO KNOWS SOMEBODY WHO IS OWED MONEY MIGHT BUMP INTO THE BASTARD.IF I HAVE ANY TROUBLE I WOULD HIRE JOHNNY KNOCKDOWN TO GET MY MONEY HE HAS DONE IT BEFORE WITH A COUPLE OF LOCAL BOOKIES SO IF YOU POST THE INFORMATION IF ANYBODY GETS STIFFED I THINK THATS FAIR THING TO DO.(EQUAL JUSTICE FOR ALL)

ALWAYS SEND YOUR HARD EARNED MONEY TO GIBRALTAR THEN YOU WONT WORRY ABOUT BEING STIFFED. /infopop/emoticons/icon_rolleyes.gif

 

you said "wrong general...

The US government cannot dictate to other governments, like Antigua, for example what should be legal over there and what should not be...

Furthermore, they cannot enforce it either...

THE SHRINK"

do you really believe this? this has to be the one of the dumbest things i have ever heard here. the united states government (god bless it) is the biggest kid on the block. they can and do dictate what they want to all but maybe 3 countries in the world, and those 3 it would be more of a bargaining situation. if our country wanted a country like antigua to change a law, it would be done, or they would find themselves under a whole lot of pressure. just imagine what would happen to their economy if americans werent aloud to go there anymore.

 

[Dexter'sLab]

An affliction similar to Tourettes Syndrome, where the victim blurts out involuntary non-specific end of the world proclamations, and claims to know much more which can't be revealed. WARNING: HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS!!! Suggested treatment regimen is a straightjacket, large doses of ritalin, and loss of internet privileges until symptoms subside.

/infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif /infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif /infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

 

[truthteller]

Totally agree with your RPM. The US government can anyday tell Costa Rica, Antigua or any other of these third world countries to close up shop and they would have to.

If not, they are going to have an economy like Cuba or Iraq.

Shrink is only trying to save face since this offshore thing is his money source.

 

[PanchoSanza]

either name names or shut the fvck up!

Are you guys now saying I need to worry about having money at WSEX/WWTS/Intertops and books like that?

Books that have been successful for years by all accounts and now your telling me they could go bust?

Give me a fvuking break.


Fine, if you won't name names, at least tell us what type of books you are referring to.

If it's the sportbet/island/gibraltor type books, books I condsider tier 2 types and below the grade A books like I mentiones above, then your not telling anyone something we already suspected.

Anybody with an ounce of brain would have reduced their balances or stopped playing alltogether with these books and stuck to the big boys.

WSEX made $7 million profit in 1999 according to the article in business week, are you now saying they are operating in the red?

Please, they must have doubled their customer base since then.

You guys are full of shit in my opinion.

 

Kind of about the level of responses I expected...

Rumors of impending doom have been going in and out of vogue for the 2 years that I have been posting (probably longer).

Why is this one different?

Several reasons:

1) Persistance. This one has been building for months with no let up. ie. not going out of vogue.

2) Many industry "insiders" are saying the same thing. This has never happened before.

3) Aces Gold. I am of the opinion that their folding put books in much deeper shit than they have admitted. ie. Many are operating on a much lower capital structure (meaning that they do not have as large a cushion in the event of a few bad weeks). In essence gamblers are gambling that they win their games while other gamblers lose.

4) Quantity of books vs. Number of gamblers (aka. squares). I saw an article a few weeks ago (searched high and low and cannot find the damn thing...) that basically stated that the volume of gambling dollars is expected to double (or something like that) over the next three years, but the number of gamblers is expected to rise by only 25% (or something like that).

ie. Supply (books) is outstripping demand (gamblers).

And the demand is more educated than they were last year with greater access to line shopping tools.

ie. Less of the gambling public are squares.

5) Recent run of bad luck (for books) in Baseball. In general, baseball is not a money making sport, but as recent posts have alluded, books have been getting their nuts handed to them. In an environment of low liquidity this makes the cushion even smaller.

6) Recent rumors about problems at books. Valid or not, it is VERY UNUSUAL to have such rumors in August. Key rumor time is December-March when withdrawals outstrip deposits.

6) Major's post: http://www.**********.com/fusetalk/messageview.cfm?catid=22&threadid=28098

Major and I have had several run-ins over the past two years, but it took a lot of balls and putting gamblers interests before his pocket to make this kind of post.

7) I give a shit about readers and their money and would like to see them keep as much of it as possible.

*****

As for the "Biff Syndrome" - lol... Sorry, but the symptoms are all wrong. I claim no "superior" knowledge.

All I claim is that there are so many warning signs from so many sources and have been for so long that the conclusion bites you in the nose.

Heed the warning, ignore it, piss on the messanger, your choice...

Joe

"Only fools learn from their mistakes.

I prefer to learn from the mistakes of others.

Otto von Bismark"

 

Guys,

Some of you are not using your noodles well.

Many of these smaller countries that have been mentioned rely on Offshore/Online Gambling as one of their main sources of revenue...

The United States would have to declare "WAR" on one of these countries to try and stop them from engaging in it.

Since the U.S also permits gambling in many other forms, it would be the most hypocritical position for the US to take and they would never get involved in a WAR over this...

Offshore gambling simply is not a priority for the US, as there really are many more important concerns far ahead of this that the US will be embracing.

Sheesh...

THE SHRINK

 

[PanchoSanza]

So when I asked judge wapner about CRIS/WWTS/RIO/PINNACLE/WSEX/Sportingbet/Bet365 and he said all these books are fine, am I supposed to take your word over his?

I see 21 million $$ in cash on sportingbets balance sheet, am I supposed to believe what you say over that?

Judge works for a book in costa rica, I would think he is closer to the situation than yourself.

SHRINK goes down there and sees the $$ a book like Royal has invested in their new facility, and comes back raving about it.

Come out and say it Joe, who should we avoid, Olympic, are they in peril too?

If you can't name a specific book, then you are speculating and we can do that on our own thank you.

 

[PanchoSanza]

What the hell got into this guy?

I suggest unless someone is willing to come in here and name specific books, this shit shouldn't be allowed.

 

Pancho,

Although I disagree with Joe's GRAVE and DESPONDENT position, his opinion is just that...

As has been evidenced, he hasn't cited ONE sports book that he is willing to go on record as saying they are going to fold...

He admits he can't predict which one either...

So, if you REALLY DISSECT what JOE is saying, it isn't very strong, and it's kind of WEAK, imo...

I can come in here also and say you know what, I predict a sports book will go under in the next 6 months, but I dont know who...

Chances are I'd be right, too...

THE SHRINK

 

[Payton]

Joe,

Could you at least try to find that article about rev. and number of gamblers. I would like to see the source since I'm a fact junkie.

CNET July 1, 2002, 2:00 PM PT
But despite attempts reaching back to 1995, Congress has been unable to pass a law that would undercut the unregulated, offshore Web casinos that stand to take in between $4.2 billion and $6.4 billion next year, according to estimates.

http://news.com.com/2100-1023-940999.html



^^^^
you know..back in 1999, Bear Stearns projected the industry would grow to 2 billion. So the fact that they are now saying 4-6 billion for this year seems to mean that internationally, gaming has thrived beyond expectations.

And, while I agree that there will be some crap books that go out of business after football, I think that making a broadcast statement that the industry is about to collapse is just silly.

Payton

P.S. I hope your bowl of cereal was better today.

 

P.S

JOE,

When you pulled out ALL of your money RECENTLY from your offshore accounts, how many were you speaking of, how many payed you, did any slow pay or no pay?

Thanks,
Ken

 

My original post was directed at the "state of the industry", not any specific books.

I do not name specific books because all I have heard is rumors and I do not condemn a book (or books) on the basis of rumor. But when you are hearing rumors about just about everybody, it is time to be concerned.

It is the persistance, consistency, source and volume of those rumors that has me concerned.

Look, I hope I am dead wrong.

I hope books lose every week of the season and none go under.

I hope everybody can sit back in February and laugh at what an ass Joe made of himself in August.

The first couple of weeks of the football season will be key. If books clean-up, that should alleviate the pressure.

And again, this is only my opinion - take it, leave it, shoot it...

Joe

PS. Shrink,

Suffice it to say that I have only used larger books and all payouts were handled promptly and courteously.

Funny thing though, none of them asked why I was clearing out my account.

**********

payton,

I have been pulling out my few remaining hairs looking for the damn thing...

 

[BigRedBunghole]

BIG JOE, no matter what happens there are gonna be sportsbooks that'll survive. Oly, pinn., british books, canbet, grande, the big, big ones are gonna survive. In every indudstry theers gotta be be a weedin out process. No wy around it. Total meltdown as yor suggestin is nonsence. Now though is the time for those books who wanta be in the book makin business for the long run to play it SAFE cuz we gotta world wide recesion thats comin - an ITS COMIN FELLES! I got me a little $$ now an Im stickin w/ the big boys.

As for US GOV, every BODY should know its jus the US citizens runnin sportsbooks outside US teritory that our Gov. don't like. These felles better look out.

 

[vega007]

The US government are worse than the mob.

Do you honestly think offshore gambling would be illegal if the US found a way to get a piece of it?

 

[SanJose]

IT'S AMAZING HOW PEOPLE JUST IGNORE A QUESTION THAT IS DIFFICULT TO ANSWER. EARLIER IN THIS THREAD I ASKED,

"WHAT WOULD YOU DO AS A POSTER IF YOU WERE TOLD INFORMATION THAT AGREES WITH WHAT JOE SAID, AND YOU RECEIVED IT FROM A PERSON YOU KNOW TO BE RELIABLE WHO WORKS IN THE BUSINESS, A PERSON YOU REALLY TRUST. THIS PERSON TOLD ME SOME TERRIFYING STUFF ABOUT THE BUSINESS IN GENERAL AND SOME STUFF ABOUT SPECIFIC BOOKS IN DEEP TROUBLE. BUT I CAN'T CONFIRM THIS MYSELF THROUGH INDEPENDENT SOURCES. WHAT DO YOU DO? DO YOU POST THE INFORMATION AND GET RIPPED THE WAY JOE DID, OR DO YOU SHUT YOUR MOUTH? IF I WERE TO POST INFO ABOUT SPECIFIC BOOKS AND IT PROVED WRONG, THAT WOULD BE UNFAIR, SO WHAT SHOULD I DO?"

I THINK THIS IS AN IMPORTANT QUESTION, WHAT WOULD YOU DO WITH INFORMATION THAT YOU CANT 100% VERIFY, BUT COMES FROM A GOOD SOURCE?

 

I agree with you on this one, rumors is all i have also, but came from real time wiseguy down there. A person would just be plain stupid to have big balances anywhere in these days and times. JMHO

 

vega, they already GET a piece out of it.

Bookmakers offshore are being taxed by their local govs for the bussiness they operate, those "third world" countries owe some huge crippling amounts to "international" organizations like the imf (international monetary fund) etc. They owe these amounts with huge running interests as well. The money they get out of the local bussiness (bookmaking or otherwise) in taxes, go back to the pockets of the ruling classes/goverments of the g7 (the seven financial super power countries of the world). So, in essence the money does come back to the u.s. gov. with a huge interest as well. Besides that the u.s. has lend out money directly to this countries...So, they do want to keep these bussiness running and, for the time being, do not want to see another country like say argentina go bankrupt because they are not going to get their money back.

Only way they wouldn't have a problem for a "third world" country to go bankrupt is if they though the losses from the loans outweigh the gains. In this scenario they d do their best (economic embargos, wars etc.) to see that this country does go bankrupt so that they can on one hand raise the interests and loans owed to them and, more importantly, install their own compradore class goverments over there to sell the local natural resources out to u.s.'s (or any other super power's for that matter) companies, oil, mineral resources, cheap labour, sugar, cotton, coffee etc.

And shrink, you said:

"Many of these smaller countries that have been mentioned rely on Offshore/Online Gambling as one of their main sources of revenue...

The United States would have to declare "WAR" on one of these countries to try and stop them from engaging in it.

Since the U.S also permits gambling in many other forms, it would be the most hypocritical position for the US to take and they would never get involved in a WAR over this..."

"It would be the most hypocritical position of the u.s. to take"

Come on shrink this is a thinly veiled attempt at faux naivete, you can do better than that. It would be most hypocritical? So when has the u.s. in the past thirty years not wagered a war on a most hypocritical pretense. Was the was on Irak not about oil, bush himsel admitted it in his own book it was about oil while at that time he was saying it was about "humanitarian" matters, isn't that hypocritical. Wasn't the pretext "we are helping starving somalians" another hypocrisy for military action. I d really like to know which of the wars wagered was NOT made under a hypocritical pretext: The dictatorial coup in Chile, the war on nicaragua, the recent war on the serbs....?