Oklahoma/Texas Bet O The Day 10/11

[OccamsRazor]

YTD 7-7
SIDES 4-5
TOTALS 3-2

Time to bring out an old favorite post o mine:

Lets say you are the linemaker and you have to come up with a Total OVER/UNDER rounds for a 12 round boxing match. You can only use the following info: Boxer 1 record is 35 and 0, all KOs, Boxer 2 record is also 35 and 0, all KOs.

Where do you set the OVER/UNDER?


Hint: Neither has been KO'ed


Example 2

Now take the following 2 football teams and their points for (PF) and against(PA)


Team 1F: 49.60, PA: 13.80

Team 2F: 47.20, PA: 11.40


Where do you set the O/U line. The average score in an NCAA game is 51 (about 52 so far this year)

Hint: Don't forget the DEFENSE.



The answers are for you to figure out, I know what I'm doing:


UNDER 57' OKLAHOMA/TEXAS

The 2 teams in the example are TEXAS #1 in sacks and scoring defense in the country and Oklahoma #1 in tackles for losses and pass defense in the country.

DEFENSE BABY!

OFFENSE FOR SHOW, DEFENSE FOR DOUGH!

 

[fastfreddy]

Love this play Occam, this game always gets hyped up for big offenses and yet they seem to stay under recently. Should be a good game and think its a 24-20 type game. GL If you like the over by the way me thinks Mizzou/OKst should hit 100.

 

[MightyGinseng]

Only reason I disagree with this play is that Texas is giving up 244 yards a game in the air while Oklahoma is averaging 360 in the air. I don't see Texas being able to stop this.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Only reason I disagree with this play is that Texas is giving up 244 yards a game in the air while Oklahoma is averaging 360 in the air. I don't see Texas being able to stop this.

and maybe they wont, yards don't matter.


After all is said and done stats wise Texas gives up 11.40 points versus Okies 13.80. The points on the board take into account all possible variables. One of the reasons for Texas low points given up, is that they lead the Nation in sacks. Okie leads the Nation in pass defense.

These are 2 of the top defenses in the country and neither team has faced anything close to the pressure and swarming that awaits them. Both QBs will go down. Both teams will be facing 3rd and long all day. Both defenses will dominate

UNDER as in Thunder.

I haven't seen such a high Total involving top defenses in years. Defenses get no respect.

 

[soonerfanjames]

Dont forget to bet over on the Avg weight of Texas Cheerleader at kickoff ( 215). This number will go well over. The total for the game will go over 51 as well.

 

[jeff_tweedy]

appreciate the insight here occams. i think i'll tail this.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Something gotta give:

OU has outscored their opponents 103-3 in the first Qtr.

Texas has only allowed 9 points this season in the 1st quarter and scored 52 themselves.

Seems like after the first Qtr we'll have a good gauge on whether this puppy is staying UNDER or not.

DEFENSE BABY!

 

[OccamsRazor]

Line has been jumping between 55, 55', 56, 56',. Public will knock it back up to 57, 57' at kickoff??

 

[OccamsRazor]

There are 119 teams ranked in Division 1, the average Scoring Defense ranking of Texas opponents is 106 (after throwing out the high and low).

The average Scoring Defense ranking of Oklahoma's opponents is 82.

An average Scoring Defense would receive a ranking of 59.5

Conclusion: Oklahoma's and Texas impressive offensive numbers (49.60 and 47.20 respectively) have come at the expense of way below average defenses.

Lets see how the offenses perform versus defenses ranked 4th and 15th in the country.

The key to winning the Side in this game is will be QB pressure. Both sides.

Look the defensive game plans full of stunts and blitzes.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Here comes the late OVER money line back up to 57 57' looking for that 58

8:42 am pacific

 

[Kegler]

There are 119 teams ranked in Division 1, the average Scoring Defense ranking of Texas opponents is 106 (after throwing out the high and low).

The average Scoring Defense ranking of Oklahoma's opponents is 82.

An average Scoring Defense would receive a ranking of 59.5

Conclusion: Oklahoma's and Texas impressive offensive numbers (49.60 and 47.20 respectively) have come at the expense of way below average defenses.

Lets see how the offenses perform versus defenses ranked 4th and 15th in the country.

The key to winning the Side in this game is will be QB pressure. Both sides.

Look the defensive game plans full of stunts and blitzes.

How good are the offenses that these two defenses have been playing? It could be that the defenses numbers are inflated also.

 

[billbeater]

I Love this play Razor! GL (eyeing 57 now) :aktion033

 

[gg611]

I tailed you on this one, but I think it may be the right reasoning but the wrong side.

 

[OccamsRazor]

31 point 2nd QTR puts the UNDER on life support. Looking for a FG friendly second half.

ADDING UNDER: 29 SECOND HALF

 

[OccamsRazor]

0-2 for the day. What can you say? the best laid plans... back at em next time.

:drink:

knocking back a stiff one... effing defenses.

 

[OccamsRazor]

ADDING:

ND+4' second half