OK,,, Here is my FADE Formula,,, CONSTRUCTIVE INPUT appreciated

[tatehill2000]

Guys,,, let me first say this thing is a Work in progress,,, I believe Very strongly we will get a Minimum of 20-40 Units by the End of the season,,

First,,, I established a Set Value on each team,,,

this is what Ive been referring to as the QUITFACTOR% the Higher the Number,,the greater chance for that Team to Quit on the road,,
{Dont FORGET,, ITS A 1 TIME PROGRESSION}*****************

the Values Ive created are derived from my personal Handicapping beliefs in the Below specific sectors,,,

1. GROUP AGE of their TEAM

2. Standings on their respective Division {East or West only}

3. How Many Days between each road trip game 0-1-2-3

4. Time Zone change 0-1-2-3

5. How many Days the Road Trip is {3 games or 4 or more}

Now these are my criteria,,,, I am Using 2 other Items but I am not sure how they will affect Long term so I am keeping them to myself,,,

Now,,, Having put Most of this OUT to YOU the Public,,, I am ASKING for INPUT,,,, I Have My Personal Values,,,, and I will Post and Play accordingly,,,they are Private to me,,, if you have suggestions it would be Great to hear,,,

******************************************

Tonight we Have 2 Games going off,,, we are FADEING GSW and DET

GSWs BASE QUIT FACTOR is 47.14 {this value has AGE and Ranking built in}


3. How Many Days between each road trip game 0-1-2-3 {1}

4. Time Zone change 0-1-2-3 {2}

5. How many Days the Road Trip is {3 games or 4 or more} {4+}

so we have a QUIT FACTOR of 77.14

*************************
DETs BASE QUIT FACTOR is 38.13 {again this Value has AGE and Ranking built in}

3. How Many Days between each road trip game 0-1-2-3 {2}

4. Time Zone change 0-1-2-3 {2}

5. How many Days the Road Trip is {3 games or 4 or more} {3}

so we have a QUIT FACTOR of 53.13

*************************
0-50 is a .5 Unit Play FADE
51-80 is a 1 Unit Play FADE
80+ is a 2-3 Unit Play FADE

Guys this is a Work in Progress,,, so Please if you cant be Constructive just Read and Dont respond,,,

I may change Values as we Move along. I am Hopeing in Setting the Values that we will Play Riskier FADES More Conservatively (the TOP 3 in each Division are the Riskiest)

good luck
Tater

 

[Mr. Negative]

I Do Not Know About This System But I Will Be On The Clippers If I Can Get Better Than 6

 

[BetSolutions]

Tate,
Love your system...i'm curious of how you calculate your base quitfactor and how you come up w/ the final quitfactor....
Also, Detriot played Toronto on the road before you started to fade them today, how come no play was made on Toronto ??....should we not lay off detriot vs LAC since they've already lossed to TOR?......

keep up the good work

 

[tatehill2000]

BET,,,, Now worries,,, DET Played that 1 GAME at Home YES<,,,, I am ONLY FADEING TEAMS on 3 GAMES or 4+ ROAD TRIPS, that Play against TOR was ONLY 1 GAme RD tRIP,,,,, they Played ON SAT against PHILI and Won at Home,,,,

cool???

Now,,, you are Not getting my system as far as the OTHER plays,,, REGUARDLESS of who has Lost to WHOM,,,, we are FADEING TEAMS that go on Road TRIPS of 3 or more,,,,, That is the CRUX of this WHOLE stupid SYSTEM,,,,,

the BASE THEORY is that HOME TEAMS WIll GET Preferred Reffing,,, {in which to Please all the BIG MONEY$$$$ Supporteres of that Home team} and that with AGE,,and several other Factors (listed) Road teams will Tank a Few to Preserve Strength,,,

Now your up to speed,,, Good lUck,,,,
and Lets Make some $$$$
tater

 

[RobFunk]

I liked the system you had last year better tater the 3 game road trip one. this one is very mathamatical, and I believe a great mathamatical system lies out there, so why not go back to last years and build on it like we were doing.

you are definatly on to something with the road trips

 

[NEWPORT]

TATE

you have asked and I will deliever my feedback.

First I like what you are after and I think there is MUCH merit here.

What I think you need to do is change the age category to NBA years of experience, and then even provide a measure for years of experience on the same team. The age itself,( I know what you are after) but I think the way you are looking for it can screw your system. Any Cleveland Game, and the system has no merit. Maybe you said that before ok What I am saying is this

Measure

Team NBA experience.

The SAME TEAM NBA experience.

Now after you have obtained the years for every team under EACH of these two categories separately....you then can create a bel curve of plotting highest lowest. So just using round figures, and please do not look at these figures as factual, but just a math lesson.

Lets say that the highest years of experience for any one team is 90 years and the lowest is 40 well then you can weight properly what this means by transfering the 40 to 90 gap relationship to be proportionate to your other measures (travel etc etc) so they have relative measure. You know what I am saying????


Now go back and do the same for years on the same team.

higest is 30 and lowest is 7. You see what I mean, then proportion this measure to wieght equivalent to those other measures.

Now you have everything numbered properly. Now is these two categories are only 30% of the total IMPORTANCE to the equation, then they have smaller measures equivalencies to begin with. It is like taking years in both of these measures and converting them to the more acute stats like trvael and jet lag factors. FOllow me....I like how I sound right now, but when you read.......YOU WILL SAY TAKE ANOTHER HIT OF THE WATER PIPE NEWPORT


HAHAHAHAH LOL NEWPORT

 

[NEWPORT]

reading more of your formula

I would not RANK record too HIGH, because with 82 games, team go in ups and downs all the time. I would do it more by losses only and measur that. See losses in the NBA tell you morethan WINS....I know that sounds confusing but it is not. Kind of like baseball.

Also I woul ADD a MEASURE for MARGIN of LOSSES margin points losses and margin points WINS

add all that with my years of expereince measures....lose age, and add in all the travel and jet lag stuff


AND I AM ON IT BROTHER LIKE A BIG MAC SANDWICH



loln HAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHAAAAAA

 

[tatehill2000]

Newport,,, you are 100% on the Money,,,, I Am Useing a VERSION of the AMMOUNT A TEAM LOST BY ON THE ROAD,,,,, thats one of my BACKGROUND techniques,,,,,, I Havetn Found a suitable Value for that factor,,,I will though,,, I will Email you this week with my thoughts,,,

and we can Tweek it behind the scenes...

and in RANKS of TEAMS,,, I will discuss that with you too,,, that was my biggest problem in figureing a TRUE VALUE,,because the CURVE in RECORD looks VERY Flat,,,,,

I will explain with Stats,,,

thanks NEWPORT,,,,

Im gettin the double quarter pounder myself,,hahah (with lettuce and tomatoe,,,) hahahha
tater

 

[NEWPORT]

I do think you need to change the age thing to YEARS OF NBA EXPERIENCE

or maybe AVERAGE YEARLY MINUTES PLAYED by YEARS IN THE NBA by TOTAL ONE SAME TEAM YEARS.......there was the holy grale

I think just age is a relative factor, and if not equated to actual playing time wiht the same team or in the NBA in general I do not believe it will mean much. I played round ball, and I knew when I stepped on the court if I was playing with certain fellows...WE were going to run it down your throat. One change of team mate, and the whole team dynamic changed. It is amazing how much people do not realize how MUCH OF A NON VERBAL COMMUNICATION GAME THE NBA IS.....Kind of like when you go to one club without even saying a word you know whether you want to saty or leave........just by the environment around you.....PLAYING HOOPS is the same. YOU KNOW right away whether you want ot be on the floor with these men or not

add that into thr QUIT factor gl NEWPORT

 

[NorthernStar]

Tate: i watched your fade system last year and find it interesting. In determining the quit factor for each team I have a couple of ideas which I am not sure how they would fit into your system. The ultimate goal is to eliminate the teams at a higher % which could possibly start out 2-0 on a road team thus giving up your units in profits.

A couple of interesting ideas to watch or look at:

How strong teams do as favorites, would it be more profitable to play on moneyline when they are small favorites of 3 or less? Example Minnesota goes and plays Lakers on first game of a road trip and they are a 3 point favorite. Maybe keep a running total of how they perform in that role in game 1 and game 2 situations.

On the flip side, how weak teams do on the road when the are getting double digits. Does that quit factor become less. Not so much from the dog quitting but the favorite getting bored and letting them get a back door cover.

Another idea you may incorporate is if a team is an offensive team or defensive team. My opinion is defensive teams are more predictable in all sports. Defense is usually there day in and day out. Offense seems to have a way of taking nights off. I would think a defensive team might be easier to predict and cover (thus staying away in your theory) and offensive teams less predictable and more likely to lose (thus better in your system). Also shooting in different arenas on different nights. You often see announcers say when teams are shooting bad they have tired legs. Travel and away games could lead to tired legs and shooting percentages going down along with it covers.

I wish I had the time to help go back and look at some of these ideas and see how they effected things in the past. Hopefully, I can help bring you some theories or ideas that might make you more sucessful. Last year didn't you do something with totals on this theory also?

Good luck

Northern Star

 

[tatehill2000]

North,,,thank you VERY much,,, I appreciate your time,,,, this is what makes this Site GREAT,,,, trying to Help each other,,,, I want to be the BEST capper I can be,,, we all have to learn from one another,,,,

lets get em!!!

tater