I have done a lot of reading on this. Based on the 48 Hours show, I concluded that it was possible that he did this, but that not guilty was the only possible verdict based on the evidence. But after digging deeper, I have come to the conclusion that there is a 0% chance that Ferguson is guilty. The story and the chain of events just don't logically add up and there is no way that any of it is true. It's simply a case where a kid had a dream, started to give in to the idea that he may have done this two years earlier, got coached on the facts, continued to daydream about it, and wrote a fictional story in his head. Now he has the story down, the only problem is that it isn't true. It's like those movies that you watch, and then afterwards go through the plot logically and see the holes in it. I think Erikson is a well-meaning disturbed kid that honestly feels like he's telling the truth, even now. Just a classic case of a false memory.