y oil down like 17% from the peak whille markets only up 3-4% on the move
its short term thinking that'll be washed away once people realize over the long term lower oil = world consuming less stuff = crappy economy
a drop in gas from 4 bucks to 3 bucks ain't going offset all the loss of spending power of the economy going from liquid crack cocaine easy to get credit using homes as an ATM to very very tightened credit market
sorry to bust your balls but i see this post similiar to your when will markets be black for 2008 post a few months back
:tongue2:
its short term thinking that'll be washed away once people realize over the long term lower oil = world consuming less stuff = crappy economy
a drop in gas from 4 bucks to 3 bucks ain't going offset all the loss of spending power of the economy going from liquid crack cocaine easy to get credit using homes as an ATM to very very tightened credit market
sorry to bust your balls but i see this post similiar to your when will markets be black for 2008 post a few months back
:tongue2:
Tiz, if people are spending more of their money on energy, they're spending less of their money on other stuff.
Come on now.
And nobody expects an exact correlation between the two anyways. That relationship ratio you posted swings by the minute.
Come on now.
And nobody expects an exact correlation between the two anyways. That relationship ratio you posted swings by the minute.
i understand but the economy's financial standing is decreasing by the day a drop in oil isn't gonna offset all the bad stuff
UE is still trending up
job losses still mounting
banks still in continuous trouble
oil is responding to the slowing economy not the other way around
plus you miss the big picture
alot of emerging markets love high oil prices and their economic booms depended on it so as oil prices rose they bought more US goods domestically....now that oil prices falling they making less money so they gonna be buying less crap
US corporate profits very dependent on international growth vs US growth the past 2-3 quarters
UE is still trending up
job losses still mounting
banks still in continuous trouble
oil is responding to the slowing economy not the other way around
plus you miss the big picture
alot of emerging markets love high oil prices and their economic booms depended on it so as oil prices rose they bought more US goods domestically....now that oil prices falling they making less money so they gonna be buying less crap
US corporate profits very dependent on international growth vs US growth the past 2-3 quarters
Also, in some of these EM countries, inflation is extremely high so they are going to need to raise interest rates faster than the Fed (if the Fed does at all). What does that do? Put downward pressure on the dollar, which will make oil more affordable outside the U.S. (b/c crude oil is priced in USD), which will drive the price back up.
Looking at the technicals, I think oil is going to go down to approx $110/bbl. However, looking at the technicals for the DJIA, I think we could test Dow 10,000 on the downside.
Looking at the technicals, I think oil is going to go down to approx $110/bbl. However, looking at the technicals for the DJIA, I think we could test Dow 10,000 on the downside.
New zealand already switched directions and cut
they managed to reign inflation and now growth is the overriding concern
others will follow with time
personally see USD going pretty much sideways for a while as the rest of the world plays catchup once they are done battling inflation
brazil raised to 13% recently but now their stock market is starting to crater due to commodities coming down
china and india slowly starting to get a handle on it but not yet and in the meantime their stock markets have crashed
the transition in the global economy from worry about massive inflation to worrying about slowing growth (deflation) just takes some time to work its way through the system its not a switch that is flipped from on to off overnight
fed raising rates.....umm...no....might cut to near zero before its all said and done
they managed to reign inflation and now growth is the overriding concern
others will follow with time
personally see USD going pretty much sideways for a while as the rest of the world plays catchup once they are done battling inflation
brazil raised to 13% recently but now their stock market is starting to crater due to commodities coming down
china and india slowly starting to get a handle on it but not yet and in the meantime their stock markets have crashed
the transition in the global economy from worry about massive inflation to worrying about slowing growth (deflation) just takes some time to work its way through the system its not a switch that is flipped from on to off overnight
fed raising rates.....umm...no....might cut to near zero before its all said and done
IMO, Fed raises or holds before they cut. Focus seems to be on inflation and not concerned about growth. I can see them needing to cut rates only if the credit crisis gets worse or if housing continues to get crushed.
Yes, NZ has already cut rates. But I see countries like Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, etc. needing to raise rates. If you look at inflation adjusted for interest rates in those countries, it is still high.
Yes, NZ has already cut rates. But I see countries like Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, etc. needing to raise rates. If you look at inflation adjusted for interest rates in those countries, it is still high.
From Bloomberg:
Bank of Korea Unexpectedly Raises Interest Rate to 5.25% to Curb Inflation
This won't be the last you see of rate hikes from Asian (ex-Japan) and South American countries.
have this over in the sell, sell, sell dungeon
but seems fitting for here
good ol fade a crammer
-----------------------------------
What Happens With Oil at $100? $90?
8/6/2008 1:58 PM EDT
Oil can really crash here. There's no demand for gasoline at these levels whatsoever. Gasoline has not fallen enough -- 15th week of down driving -- at the height of the summer. That means the $3.60-$3.70 that people are paying it still just too darned high, as any reading of Tesoro (TSO) or Valero's (VLO) conference calls can tell you. That means there is no place to put the darned stuff. It also means that those who are not indexing commodities but buying commodities as an investment are getting killed, and won't put more money in it. Plus, if you were hoarding this stuff because you felt that there would be a war, that diminishes every day, as it appears that Iran is not going to attack, and we are not going to attack Iran. (Oh, and by the way, to the big intellectuals out there, wasn't oil supposed to fall big if the Fed raised rates and go up if the Fed did nothing? The specious logic in the face of the empirical facts continues.)
With oil in free fall -- getting quickly to my $110 target, which should translate to below $3.50 at the tank -- you could stabilize, but we know commodities overshoot on the downside. That means, again, tech on its weird link to oil, financials on the weakness in commodities meaning no tightening, health care on the belief by market participants that you couldn't get this free fall unless we are going into a recession, and consumer nondurables like a Pepsi (PEP) or a Procter (PG) with huge commodity costs that have put through pricing -- all will explode in earnings next year. Add to this lineup that the utilities will get money into them because of the health care recession factor.
:grandmais
All of these mean that every dollar down can be a half-percent up for this market. You can only imagine what that means to the S&P when we get to $110.
If we get to $100, people will be talking about a new bull market.
:missingte:missingte:missingte:missingte:missingte:missingte:missingte:missingte
At $90, if it gets there? We are going to very high prices, and probably a 14-15 multiple on next year's earnings.
Dreaming?
No, being realistic, because no Fed increases with no commodities, rebuild of reserves, return of consumer confidence, one-time credit for buying homes: All of these could lead to something that nobody expects, a sustained run in the stock market that will presage a turn in the economy.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Procter & Gamble and Pepsi.
but seems fitting for here
good ol fade a crammer
-----------------------------------
What Happens With Oil at $100? $90?
8/6/2008 1:58 PM EDT
Oil can really crash here. There's no demand for gasoline at these levels whatsoever. Gasoline has not fallen enough -- 15th week of down driving -- at the height of the summer. That means the $3.60-$3.70 that people are paying it still just too darned high, as any reading of Tesoro (TSO) or Valero's (VLO) conference calls can tell you. That means there is no place to put the darned stuff. It also means that those who are not indexing commodities but buying commodities as an investment are getting killed, and won't put more money in it. Plus, if you were hoarding this stuff because you felt that there would be a war, that diminishes every day, as it appears that Iran is not going to attack, and we are not going to attack Iran. (Oh, and by the way, to the big intellectuals out there, wasn't oil supposed to fall big if the Fed raised rates and go up if the Fed did nothing? The specious logic in the face of the empirical facts continues.)
With oil in free fall -- getting quickly to my $110 target, which should translate to below $3.50 at the tank -- you could stabilize, but we know commodities overshoot on the downside. That means, again, tech on its weird link to oil, financials on the weakness in commodities meaning no tightening, health care on the belief by market participants that you couldn't get this free fall unless we are going into a recession, and consumer nondurables like a Pepsi (PEP) or a Procter (PG) with huge commodity costs that have put through pricing -- all will explode in earnings next year. Add to this lineup that the utilities will get money into them because of the health care recession factor.
:grandmais
All of these mean that every dollar down can be a half-percent up for this market. You can only imagine what that means to the S&P when we get to $110.
If we get to $100, people will be talking about a new bull market.
:missingte:missingte:missingte:missingte:missingte:missingte:missingte:missingte
At $90, if it gets there? We are going to very high prices, and probably a 14-15 multiple on next year's earnings.
Dreaming?
No, being realistic, because no Fed increases with no commodities, rebuild of reserves, return of consumer confidence, one-time credit for buying homes: All of these could lead to something that nobody expects, a sustained run in the stock market that will presage a turn in the economy.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Procter & Gamble and Pepsi.
Doesn't he know gas can sell at that price if the station owners were making their typical few pennies per gallon? The prices at the pumps are lagging at the station level.
Two weeks ago, the last time I looked, a client of mine was paying 3.78 and selling it for 4.03.
That's two weeks ago in the highest gas tax state in the country.
This indicates to me that Kramer is just a tad uninformed.
Two weeks ago, the last time I looked, a client of mine was paying 3.78 and selling it for 4.03.
That's two weeks ago in the highest gas tax state in the country.
This indicates to me that Kramer is just a tad uninformed.
he's a clown
near the july bottom he was screaming we doomed
now he's saying lower oil gonna save us
he was hyping natural gas when it was 13 bucks...its now under 9
part of the CNBS garbage
the misinformation campaign that goes on all around us....
and funny part (well pretty sad) is i know for fact people call up investment advisors all excited about a cramer pick they want to buy
near the july bottom he was screaming we doomed
now he's saying lower oil gonna save us
he was hyping natural gas when it was 13 bucks...its now under 9
part of the CNBS garbage
the misinformation campaign that goes on all around us....
and funny part (well pretty sad) is i know for fact people call up investment advisors all excited about a cramer pick they want to buy
just give it some time CS
dow sub 10,000 along with oil below 140 (what it was at when we hit the july bottom) probably still above 100....maybe lower...... oil's fall (well how fast) so far has surprised me......think a near term bounce coming soon....and they can than blame the fall on rising oil.....
don't get fooled by the near term noise....and crammer tipping you off i'm right....
if i'm wrong i'm wrong
but contrarian investor in me thinks i'm right
much like why i'm so hard headed on the deflation front which is part of what this discussion is about
not one person i've met on here think deflation is coming not 1!!
dow sub 10,000 along with oil below 140 (what it was at when we hit the july bottom) probably still above 100....maybe lower...... oil's fall (well how fast) so far has surprised me......think a near term bounce coming soon....and they can than blame the fall on rising oil.....
don't get fooled by the near term noise....and crammer tipping you off i'm right....
if i'm wrong i'm wrong
but contrarian investor in me thinks i'm right
much like why i'm so hard headed on the deflation front which is part of what this discussion is about
not one person i've met on here think deflation is coming not 1!!
y saw that pretty funny
we can't do all this shit anymore we going broke
so much money being thrown around overseas to help other countries out.....alot of the via military bases in places we don't need um......
eventually we just gotta tell the germans and s korean types we can't do this shit anymore...your on your own
i've met a few people that have served over in S. korea and they think its a complete waste of time and money....and just astounded how much money the military wastes....beyond just being there
i know a chemical engineer as well that got a military job and he said the same thing......he likes the pay but he said the military is so extremely wasteful
we can't do all this shit anymore we going broke
so much money being thrown around overseas to help other countries out.....alot of the via military bases in places we don't need um......
eventually we just gotta tell the germans and s korean types we can't do this shit anymore...your on your own
i've met a few people that have served over in S. korea and they think its a complete waste of time and money....and just astounded how much money the military wastes....beyond just being there
i know a chemical engineer as well that got a military job and he said the same thing......he likes the pay but he said the military is so extremely wasteful
LOL not sure why i respond
trains are so much more efficient than trucks for hauling goods
and so much more fuel efficient for transportation
all our federal government agencies waste money vs. the free markets....in whatever they do.....
whether it be NASA, military, education, you name it.....just common sense
yet i mention the word military and the "righties" have issues with it
big reason beyond the current mess we going down the tubes longer term is federal spending is extremely wasteful on all fronts and it continues to grow
trains are so much more efficient than trucks for hauling goods
and so much more fuel efficient for transportation
all our federal government agencies waste money vs. the free markets....in whatever they do.....
whether it be NASA, military, education, you name it.....just common sense
yet i mention the word military and the "righties" have issues with it
big reason beyond the current mess we going down the tubes longer term is federal spending is extremely wasteful on all fronts and it continues to grow
:lolBIG:
Well, I know a postal clerk...
So what institution in the US do Americans trust and respect the most?
According to Rasmussen, no, it's not Congress :missingte or any bloated governmental agency, public education... religion or even small business or Corporate America.
Newp, by far the number one MOST TRUSTED institution in America is...
THE MILITARY!
The best damn anti-evil fighting machine in the history of mankind!
God Bless'em!
I say we ramp up defense spending and make DEEP CUTS in everything else!
