[h=1]Plugging the holes: AFC East[/h][h=3]Most pressing offseason needs for the Bills, Dolphins, Patriots and Jets[/h]By Scott Kacsmar | Football Outsiders
ESPN INSIDER
Welcome to the 2014 version of Plugging the Holes, an eight-part examination from Football Outsiders of the biggest needs for every NFL team, division by division, going into the offseason.
The series begins Monday, with Outsiders' look at the AFC East.
[h=3]Buffalo Bills: Offensive tackle[/h]
For a team coming off its ninth consecutive losing season, the Bills actually have a decent roster in place with no glaring holes. Key acquisitions on defense in the past few years have solidified that unit, which ranked No. 4 in DVOA at Football Outsiders. This leaves Buffalo in the familiar position of trying to replace Hall of Fame quarterback Jim Kelly. Florida State's EJ Manuel was a first-round pick last year, but injuries really took away from his opportunity to impress in his initial campaign. Adding talent around the quarterback should be the top priority this offseason, but that does not have to be a big-name receiver. In the past two years, the Bills have drafted Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin and T.J. Graham in the first three rounds. With young receivers and a very good running back duo (C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson), the Bills would be better served to improve the trenches.
Coach Doug Marrone has specialized in the offensive line during his career, so he should have a good grasp on what went wrong in his rookie year on the Bills' sideline. No one ran the ball more in 2013 than Buffalo, with 546 runs, but the offense ranked only 14th in yards per carry (4.2) and 17th in DVOA. Run blocking was not a strength of the offensive line, especially to the outside, and right tackle Erik Pears in particular could be the player replaced in the draft by a top prospect like Greg Robinson (Auburn) or Jake Matthews (Texas A&M). Left tackle Cordy Glenn was a second-round pick in 2012, and his starting job should be safe, but he must play better. Buffalo had such little success when rushing outside last season that a league-high 71 percent of runs came up the middle or behind a guard.
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Not only does Manuel need some insulation from a consistent running game, but he could use better protection so he does not have to scramble as much and risk more injuries. Buffalo's offensive line ranked 28th in adjusted sack rate (8.5 percent). Only 28 of the 48 sacks surrendered came with Manuel taking the snap, but if he's going to stay on the field and get better, then the blocking must improve.
[h=3]Miami Dolphins: Offensive line[/h]
Second-year QB Ryan Tannehill was sacked a staggering 58 times in 2013, and the fact he didn't miss significant time is a tribute to his durability. When left tackle Jake Long departed in free agency to St. Louis this past offseason, there was a big hole to fill. Miami never fixed it, but instead added a big-play wide receiver in Mike Wallace.
The fallout between tackle Jonathan Martin and guard Richie Incognito, a story that became a significant off-field distraction, did Miami no favors in fielding a quality line on the field, and a trade for Bryant McKinnie from Baltimore did not prove beneficial. When your offensive line cannot hold blocks and your best receiver's strength is getting deep, that's a poor combination, and it's no surprise Wallace failed to live up to lofty expectations in his first season with the Dolphins. Wallace ranked 77th in DYAR and 75th in DVOA among wide receivers.
Not only did the protection around Tannehill collapse, but the running game rarely had much success in 2013. Miami had four games with fewer than 25 rushing yards; Miami had seven such games in team history prior to the season. Still, the offense came alive late in the year to put the team in position to make the playoffs, but the final two games were two of the biggest offensive duds in team history: The Dolphins scored just seven total points and turned the ball over five times.
Tannehill's Total QBR fell from 50.4 as a rookie to 45.8 this year. He's a good athlete and does not hold onto the ball very long, either, so 58 sacks are very concerning for Tannehill's development. Aside from Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey, the Dolphins do not have many pieces in place on the offensive line to protect their young quarterback. This hole will take more than one offseason to fix, but something must be done in free agency and the draft.
[h=3]New England Patriots: Tight end[/h]
When healthy, Rob Gronkowski is the best tight end in the NFL. However, a variety of injuries and surgeries have cast some doubt on whether he will be the same elite player, or how long he'll last until the next injury. With Gronkowski now recovering from ACL surgery, the Patriots need an insurance plan. Some will say the team needs wide receivers, but Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola did a very respectable job of replacing Wes Welker's production. Shane Vereen is a good receiving threat out of the backfield. The team has young outside wide receivers like Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins and both battled their own health issues down the stretch.
The pieces are there for Tom Brady, but this offense was built around two tight ends. Between Gronkowski's injuries and the Aaron Hernandez situation, the Patriots had no backup plan in 2013. The result was that the Pats essentially ignored the position in the passing game; Brady completed just 14 passes to tight ends not named Gronkowski. In 2012, that number was 61, 51 of them to Hernandez. Michael Hoomanawanui is better used as a blocker. With the 29th pick in the draft, the Patriots could target Texas Tech tight end Jace Amaro. He's not the all-around tight end that Gronkowski is, but he can play in the slot and give Brady another reliable option down the middle of the field. Pair him with Gronkowski and it could be like old times again in New England with the two-tight end look.
Every season in New England is played with a win-now mentality, as Brady turns 37 and Bill Belichick turns 62 this year. The Patriots cannot afford to again lose a whole dimension of their offense should Gronkowski suffer another injury.
[h=3]New York Jets: Eligible receivers[/h]
Like two other teams in the AFC East, the Jets are trying to build around a young quarterback to dethrone the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady machine in New England. Rookie quarterback Geno Smith had his struggles with turnovers (25 of them) and consistency, but adding better receivers would make his job easier. When Rex Ryan was reaching AFC Championship Games with Mark Sanchez, his inconsistent QB was throwing to talent like Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller. Those were players who can catch inaccurate passes and produce yards after the catch. Smith's leading targets last season were Jeremy Kerley, a banged-up Holmes, Stephen Hill and David Nelson. Hill has yet to catch on in two years, and Holmes may not even be back given his cap hit of more than $10.7 million in 2014. Tight end Jeff Cumberland led the team with just four receiving touchdowns.
A tight end like North Carolina's Eric Ebron could be a great addition with the 18th pick in the draft. Smith had success when throwing to similar big targets last year. He completed 64.4 percent of his passes to Kellen Winslow, 64.0 percent to Nelson and 63.9 percent to Cumberland. Smith was just 47-of-114 passing (41.2 percent) when targeting Holmes and Hill. Those outside throws are more difficult the complete, which is why a player like Ebron would be a great security blanket over the middle for Smith.
ESPN INSIDER
Welcome to the 2014 version of Plugging the Holes, an eight-part examination from Football Outsiders of the biggest needs for every NFL team, division by division, going into the offseason.
The series begins Monday, with Outsiders' look at the AFC East.
[h=3]Buffalo Bills: Offensive tackle[/h]
For a team coming off its ninth consecutive losing season, the Bills actually have a decent roster in place with no glaring holes. Key acquisitions on defense in the past few years have solidified that unit, which ranked No. 4 in DVOA at Football Outsiders. This leaves Buffalo in the familiar position of trying to replace Hall of Fame quarterback Jim Kelly. Florida State's EJ Manuel was a first-round pick last year, but injuries really took away from his opportunity to impress in his initial campaign. Adding talent around the quarterback should be the top priority this offseason, but that does not have to be a big-name receiver. In the past two years, the Bills have drafted Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin and T.J. Graham in the first three rounds. With young receivers and a very good running back duo (C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson), the Bills would be better served to improve the trenches.
Coach Doug Marrone has specialized in the offensive line during his career, so he should have a good grasp on what went wrong in his rookie year on the Bills' sideline. No one ran the ball more in 2013 than Buffalo, with 546 runs, but the offense ranked only 14th in yards per carry (4.2) and 17th in DVOA. Run blocking was not a strength of the offensive line, especially to the outside, and right tackle Erik Pears in particular could be the player replaced in the draft by a top prospect like Greg Robinson (Auburn) or Jake Matthews (Texas A&M). Left tackle Cordy Glenn was a second-round pick in 2012, and his starting job should be safe, but he must play better. Buffalo had such little success when rushing outside last season that a league-high 71 percent of runs came up the middle or behind a guard.
<OFFER></OFFER>
Not only does Manuel need some insulation from a consistent running game, but he could use better protection so he does not have to scramble as much and risk more injuries. Buffalo's offensive line ranked 28th in adjusted sack rate (8.5 percent). Only 28 of the 48 sacks surrendered came with Manuel taking the snap, but if he's going to stay on the field and get better, then the blocking must improve.
[h=3]Miami Dolphins: Offensive line[/h]
Second-year QB Ryan Tannehill was sacked a staggering 58 times in 2013, and the fact he didn't miss significant time is a tribute to his durability. When left tackle Jake Long departed in free agency to St. Louis this past offseason, there was a big hole to fill. Miami never fixed it, but instead added a big-play wide receiver in Mike Wallace.
The fallout between tackle Jonathan Martin and guard Richie Incognito, a story that became a significant off-field distraction, did Miami no favors in fielding a quality line on the field, and a trade for Bryant McKinnie from Baltimore did not prove beneficial. When your offensive line cannot hold blocks and your best receiver's strength is getting deep, that's a poor combination, and it's no surprise Wallace failed to live up to lofty expectations in his first season with the Dolphins. Wallace ranked 77th in DYAR and 75th in DVOA among wide receivers.
Not only did the protection around Tannehill collapse, but the running game rarely had much success in 2013. Miami had four games with fewer than 25 rushing yards; Miami had seven such games in team history prior to the season. Still, the offense came alive late in the year to put the team in position to make the playoffs, but the final two games were two of the biggest offensive duds in team history: The Dolphins scored just seven total points and turned the ball over five times.
Tannehill's Total QBR fell from 50.4 as a rookie to 45.8 this year. He's a good athlete and does not hold onto the ball very long, either, so 58 sacks are very concerning for Tannehill's development. Aside from Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey, the Dolphins do not have many pieces in place on the offensive line to protect their young quarterback. This hole will take more than one offseason to fix, but something must be done in free agency and the draft.
[h=3]New England Patriots: Tight end[/h]
When healthy, Rob Gronkowski is the best tight end in the NFL. However, a variety of injuries and surgeries have cast some doubt on whether he will be the same elite player, or how long he'll last until the next injury. With Gronkowski now recovering from ACL surgery, the Patriots need an insurance plan. Some will say the team needs wide receivers, but Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola did a very respectable job of replacing Wes Welker's production. Shane Vereen is a good receiving threat out of the backfield. The team has young outside wide receivers like Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins and both battled their own health issues down the stretch.
The pieces are there for Tom Brady, but this offense was built around two tight ends. Between Gronkowski's injuries and the Aaron Hernandez situation, the Patriots had no backup plan in 2013. The result was that the Pats essentially ignored the position in the passing game; Brady completed just 14 passes to tight ends not named Gronkowski. In 2012, that number was 61, 51 of them to Hernandez. Michael Hoomanawanui is better used as a blocker. With the 29th pick in the draft, the Patriots could target Texas Tech tight end Jace Amaro. He's not the all-around tight end that Gronkowski is, but he can play in the slot and give Brady another reliable option down the middle of the field. Pair him with Gronkowski and it could be like old times again in New England with the two-tight end look.
Every season in New England is played with a win-now mentality, as Brady turns 37 and Bill Belichick turns 62 this year. The Patriots cannot afford to again lose a whole dimension of their offense should Gronkowski suffer another injury.
[h=3]New York Jets: Eligible receivers[/h]
Like two other teams in the AFC East, the Jets are trying to build around a young quarterback to dethrone the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady machine in New England. Rookie quarterback Geno Smith had his struggles with turnovers (25 of them) and consistency, but adding better receivers would make his job easier. When Rex Ryan was reaching AFC Championship Games with Mark Sanchez, his inconsistent QB was throwing to talent like Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller. Those were players who can catch inaccurate passes and produce yards after the catch. Smith's leading targets last season were Jeremy Kerley, a banged-up Holmes, Stephen Hill and David Nelson. Hill has yet to catch on in two years, and Holmes may not even be back given his cap hit of more than $10.7 million in 2014. Tight end Jeff Cumberland led the team with just four receiving touchdowns.
A tight end like North Carolina's Eric Ebron could be a great addition with the 18th pick in the draft. Smith had success when throwing to similar big targets last year. He completed 64.4 percent of his passes to Kellen Winslow, 64.0 percent to Nelson and 63.9 percent to Cumberland. Smith was just 47-of-114 passing (41.2 percent) when targeting Holmes and Hill. Those outside throws are more difficult the complete, which is why a player like Ebron would be a great security blanket over the middle for Smith.
