Fade goes 1-5 last week. The pool continues to burn with the intensity of 1000 suns! Since week 11 the most popular pool picks have gone 18-4-1! 22-7-2 since week 9!
Regression to the mean?! We don't need no stiinkin' regression! (The pool clearly doesn't understand mathematial/sttatistical principles. We're talking pricipalities here!)
That said, here we go - Week 17.
Below lines are from the picks sheet, passed out on Monday. If a line is not out Monday morning, (ie games involving MNF teams, etc) the boys make one up so the sheet can be passed out on time. All lines on the sheet have a hook so there will be no pushes (and the pick can be scored win or loss).
If there is a difference of 3 points or more in the line on the sheet and the line ATP, the game is thrown out as a WRONG FAVORITE.
259 ENTRIES
*HOME
ATP: AT TIME OF POST
BM: BOOKMAKER
FAVE_________LINE_________DOG______________MAJORITY OF PICKS
PHI..........4.5..........NYG*.............132 ON PHI
BUF*.........1.5..........NYJ..............179 ON BUF
TEN..........5.5..........HOU*.............164 ON HOU____________63% TEXANS - PUBLIC DOG
CLE..........2.5..........CIN*.............170 ON CLE
MIN*.........7.5..........CHI..............133 ON MIN
IND..........3.5..........JAX*.............189 ON IND____________73% COLTS *WRONG FAVORITE* COLTS -6.5 @ BM ATP
TB*..........1.5..........ATL..............136 ON ATL
DAL*.........11.5.........WAS..............155 ON WAS____________60% REDSKINS - PUBLIC DOG
NO*..........13.5.........CAR..............150 ON NO
BAL*.........3.5..........PIT..............137 ON BAL
NE*..........16.5.........MIA..............157 ON MIA____________61% DOLPHINS - PUBLIC DOG
GB...........10.5.........DET*.............152 ON GB
KC*..........7.5..........LAC..............196 ON KC_____________76% CHIEFS
LAR*.........7.5..........ARI..............148 ON ARI
DEN*.........4.5..........OAK..............143 ON OAK
SF...........3.5..........SEA*.............134 ON SEA
So, four plays for the Fade. Three fades of 60% or more om a dog and one fade of 70% or more of a fave.
Lines from BM ATP
Titans -7
Cowboys -13
Patriots -16.5
Chargers +9.5
GOOD LUCK RX BROTHERS!
FADE RECORD: 18-30-3
Fades of 70% or more on a favorite: 11-17-1
Fades of 60% or more of a dog: 7-13-2
WEEK ONE (1-0)
*DAL -7.5 NYG 147 ON NYG__63% ON NYG__PUBLIC DOG
Dallas 35 NYG 17
Dallas winner
WEEK 2 (2-1-1)
BUF -2.5 *NYG 168 ON NYG__66% ON NYG__PUBLIC DOG
Bills 28 Giants 14
Bills winner
N.E 15.5 *MIA 187 ON N.E__73% ON N.E
Pats 43 - Dolphins 0
Dolphins loser
No more Dolphins games rule initiated.
*LAR -3.5 NOR 159 ON NOR__62% ON NOR__PUBLIC DOG
Rams 27 Saints 9
Rams winner
*DEN -0.5 CHI 153 ON CHI__60% ON CHI__PUBLIC DOG
Bears 16-Broncos 14
The points mattered. Lines on Sunday anywhere from Bears -1 to -3
This game could have well been thrown out as a wrong favorite
but at the time of post line was Broncos +2 so I got a push
WEEK 3 (1-1)
*IND 2.5 ATL | 184 on ATL___________68% ON ATL__PUBLIC DOC
Colts 27 - Falcons 24
Colts winner
LAR 3.5 *CLE | 196 on LAR____________73% ON LAR
Rams 20 - Browns 13
Browns loser
WEEK 4 (1-0)
BAL*____5.5____CLE____185 ON BAL------------70%
Browns 40 -Ravens 25
Browns winner
WEEK 5 (0-2)
CIN* .....4.5 ......ARI ............180 ON ARI_______________60% ON CARDS (PUBLIC DOG)
Cards 26 - Bungles 23
Bungles loser
N.E .......15.5.... *WAS .........216 ON N.E_______________72% ON PATS
Pats 33 - Skins 7
Skins loser
WEEK 6 (1-1)
DAL....8.5...*NYJ....214 ON DAL....................72% ON DAL
Jets 24 - Boys 22 Jets winner
*CLE...2.5...SEA.....234 ON SEA....................79% ON SEA (PUBLIC DOG)
Broqna 28 - Seahawks 32 Browns loser
WEEK 7 (4-1)
*NYG....2.5.....ARI........209 ON NYG....................70% ON NYG
Cards 27 Gmen 21, Cards winner
*IND....1.5.....HOU........195 ON HOU....................66% ON HOU (PUBLIC DOG)
Colts 30 Texans 23, Coltsw winner
SF......9.5......WAS*......224 ON SF......................76% ON SF
SF 9 Skins 0, Skins winner
*TEN....1.5......LAC.......179 ON LAC.....................60% ON LAC (PUBLIC DOG)
Titans 23 Chargers 20, Titans winner
*CHI....3.5......NO........190 ON NO......................64% ON NO (PUBLIC DOG)
Saints 36 Bears 25, Bears loser
WEEK 8 (1-3)
#LAR.....12.5.....CIN.......217 ON LAR_______73% ON LAR
Rams 24 Bungles 10, Bungles loser
*IND.....6.5......DEN.......213 ON IND_______72% ON IND
Colts 15 Broncos 13, Broncos winner
*NE......10.5.....CLE.......211 ON NE________71% ON NE
Pats 27 Browns 13, Browns loser
GB.......3.5......*KC.......212 ON GB________72% ON GB
Pack 31 Chiefs 24, Chiefs loser
WEEK 9 (1-1)
SEA......6.5......TB........197 ON SEA_______71% ON SEA
Hawks 40 Bucs 34, Bucs loser (played at +5 ATP)
GB.......3.5......LAC*......208 ON GB________75% ON GB
Chargers 26 Pack 11, Chargers winner
WEEK 10 (2-2-1)
NYG......2.5......NYJ*......204 ON NYG_________74% ON GIANTS
Giants 27 Jets 34, Jets +3 winner
KC.......3.5......TEN*......221 ON KC__________80% ON CHIEFS
KC 32 Titans 35, Titans +6 winner
CLE*.....2.5......BUF.......186 ON BUF_________67% ON BILLS (PUBLIC DOG)
Browns 19 Bills 16, Browns -3 Push
TB*......5.5......ARI.......168 ON ARI_________61% ON CARDS (PUBLIC DOG)
Bucs 30 Cards 27, Bucs -5 loser
SF*......6.5.....SEA........168 ON SEA_________61% ON SEAHAGS (PUBLIC DOG)
49ers 24 Hawks 27, 49ers -6 loser
WEEK 11 (0-2)
WAS*.....1.5......NYJ.......178 ON NYJ_________63% ON JETS (PUBLIC DOG)
Skins 17 Jets 34, Skins loser
KC.......4.5......LAC#......204 ON KC__________72% ON KC
Chiefs 24 Chargers 17, Bolts loser
WEEK 12 (0-3)
CHI*.....7.5......NYG.......168 ON NYG_________63% ON GIANTS (PUBLIC DOG)
Bears 19 Giants 14, Bears loser
PHI*.....2.5......SEA.......167 ON SEA_________62% ON HAWKS (PUBLIC DOG)
Seahags 79 Iggles 9, Iggles loser
BAL......3.5......LAR*......188 ON BAL__________70% ON RAVENS
Ravens 45 Rams 6, Rams loser
WEEK 13 (2-2)
DAL*.....7.5......BUF.......171 ON BUF_________63% ON BILLS (PUBLIC DOG)
Bills 25 Cowboys 15, Cowboys loser
GB.......7.5......NYG*......197 ON GB__________72% ON PACK
Pack 31 Gmen 13, Gman loser
NYJ......3.5......CIN*......216 ON NYJ_________79% ON JETS
Bengals 22 Jets 6, Bengals winner
NE.......3.5......HOU*......203 ON NE___________74% ON PATS
Texans28 Pats 22, Texans winner
WEEK 14 (0-4)
NYJ*.....6.5......MIA.......160 ON MIA__________60% on MIA (PUBLIC DOG)
Jets 22 Fins 21, Jets loser
NO*......3.5......SF........168 ON SF___________63% ON SF (PUBLIC DOG)
49ers 48 Saints 46, Saints loser
NE*......3.5......KC........171 ON KC____________64% ON KC (PUBLIC DOG)
Chiefs 23 Pats 16, Pats loser
PIT......1.5......AZ*.......206 ON PIT___________77% ON PIT
Steelers 23 Cards 17, Cards loser
WEEK 15 (1-2-1)
NE.........9.5........CIN*.......203 ON NE_________74% ON PATRIOTS
Pats 34 Bungles 13, Bunles loser
SEA........5.5........CAR*.......223 ON SEA________81% ON SEAHAWKS
Seahawks 30 Panthers 24, Panthers push @ 6
KC*........11.5.......DEN........167 ON DEN________60% ON BRONCOS (PUBLIC DOG)
KC 23 Broncos 3, Chiefs winner
PIT*.......1.5........BUF........181 ON BUF________65% ON BILLS (PUBLIC DOG)
Steelers 10 Bills 17, Steelers loser
WEEK 16 (1-5)
SF*........6.5.......LAR..........SF 189________71% ON 49ERS
SF 34 Rams 31, Rams winner
ATL*.......6.5.......JAX..........ATL 206_______78% ON THE DIRTY
Dirty 24 Jags 12, Jags loser
NO.........1.5.......TEN*.........NO 193________73% ON SAINTS
Saints 38 Tits 28, Tits loser
BAL........7.5.......CLE*.........BAL 191________72% ON RAVENS
Ravens 31 Browns 15, Browns loser
DEN*.......6.5.......DET..........DEN 196________74% ON BRONCOS
Broncos 27 Lions 17, Lions loser
KC.........4.5.......CHI*.........KC 204_________77% ON CHIEFS
Chiefs 26Bears 3, Bears loser