dont even get me started about "value" and laying chalk
agree with Judge on this one..........
anyway recent studies have shown that people who consistently lay chalk of -280 or higher have a much higher rate of hemmorrhoids than those who dont lay chalk..........probably from getting that ass wacked........
agree with Judge on this one..........
anyway recent studies have shown that people who consistently lay chalk of -280 or higher have a much higher rate of hemmorrhoids than those who dont lay chalk..........probably from getting that ass wacked........
areeff---"If a team has a 90% chance of winning and you have to lay -300 of course you lay it."
Where does the 90 number come from?
-3000 on Sweden?
Well, if they by chance lose, you need 30 other straight Swedens to win to arrive at square one. Man, that's a long road. To chase that money requires a home equity line of credit.
God forbid to lose 2 or 3 in a row @-3000.
GL
Where does the 90 number come from?
-3000 on Sweden?
Well, if they by chance lose, you need 30 other straight Swedens to win to arrive at square one. Man, that's a long road. To chase that money requires a home equity line of credit.
God forbid to lose 2 or 3 in a row @-3000.
GL
-900 means the team will win 90% of the time. So if you have to lay -300 you are getting serious value.
Sure -3000 is alot of chalk but it's not a gamble it's math. If i told you That i had a 75 sided die and all you had to lay was -3000 that the # would not be "75" would you lay it? If you wouldn't you either 1) have a small bankroll 2) have no math skills 3) have no balls
It's a given
It's like getting paid 51 cents on a coin flip. and if you lose you pay 50. You bet it all day. You may lose 20 in a row but you still bet it ALL day.
On the other side if you are betting tails will not come up 3 times in a row at -600 you are getting value as tails will come up 3 times in a row 1/8 times or -700
Sure -3000 is alot of chalk but it's not a gamble it's math. If i told you That i had a 75 sided die and all you had to lay was -3000 that the # would not be "75" would you lay it? If you wouldn't you either 1) have a small bankroll 2) have no math skills 3) have no balls
It's a given
It's like getting paid 51 cents on a coin flip. and if you lose you pay 50. You bet it all day. You may lose 20 in a row but you still bet it ALL day.
On the other side if you are betting tails will not come up 3 times in a row at -600 you are getting value as tails will come up 3 times in a row 1/8 times or -700
Playing dogs is hard and requires discipline, but in the end I have come out ahead playing about 90 % dogs in baseball (mostly run lines)
I take a deep breath when they run down the scores on the local sports station because I usually am expecting the worst.
Tough to make money in baseball playing a lot of chalk.
I take a deep breath when they run down the scores on the local sports station because I usually am expecting the worst.
Tough to make money in baseball playing a lot of chalk.
Areef is correct, there is no right or wrong way to bet baseball as far as chalk or dogs are concerned. Value is value. I do agree that squares may not see the value in dogs as easily as sharps but I don't know of a wiseguy who is scared to lay chalk when he needs to.
Just remember the math though boys. If you like a team that is -3000 and you say their "real" price is -9000, that isn't much of a value actually. In theoretical math terms, a -3000 team should win 97% of the time. A -9000 team should win 99% of the time. A 2% differential, not exactly worth betting. A team that is -120 means they should win 54.5% of the time. If they really are -130 then they should win 56.5% of the time. So basically you have about the same value in betting a -120 team that you think is -130 as you do betting a -3000 team that you think is a -9000 team. This is a very important concept that I think exremely few know and understand, but its always important when betting a money line to refer back to the odds of something happening and then making your assesment of value based on that, not on relative prices. Its why the takeback on a -450/+325 number really isn't as bad as it seems. Learn this concept and you will become a stronger bettor.
I don't think people would be so averse to laying chalk if it wasn't so ingrained in the US bettor's consciousness to lay to win a unit, rather than to lay a unit.
just my opinion,
much greater room for error consistently betting dogs, IOW in the 90% example above, there is only from 90%-100% chance to win, if I bet on something I perceive to have a 10% chance of winning, my guess can be way off, as we get the entire from 10% -100% to be correct.
just my opinion,
much greater room for error consistently betting dogs, IOW in the 90% example above, there is only from 90%-100% chance to win, if I bet on something I perceive to have a 10% chance of winning, my guess can be way off, as we get the entire from 10% -100% to be correct.
I think Sodium Pentehthol says it best. If you are a dime bettor and you see value in Zito -300 (for whatever godforsaken reason), then it is one thing to lay $3000 to win $1000 and another thing entirely to lay $1000 to win $333.33.
This way if the unlikely situation that you lose occurs you are only out 1 unit and not digging a $3000 hole. Yes the return is much smaller but mentally I think it makes a difference.
This way if the unlikely situation that you lose occurs you are only out 1 unit and not digging a $3000 hole. Yes the return is much smaller but mentally I think it makes a difference.
Seymour,
Not 2, 5 years.
Had Tigers in that CWS game. +212
Quite a double play to end it. Rocket down the line, snared and step on the bag.
Said it before, this poster says a player is doomed with chalk involved. One is not so smart to know which players will repeat previous game performances and which ones will not. In a nut shell, I say they all play different than they played the prior game. Sometimes a "little" difference from each side gets the cover, and of course a "lot" different, and the dog rolls.
It would be great to find which portion of the 3% lay, and how much.
My church allows the sin of chalk when you have "plus" 3 points or higher in pigskins or hoops.
Just my take bud.
Not 2, 5 years.
Had Tigers in that CWS game. +212
Quite a double play to end it. Rocket down the line, snared and step on the bag.
Said it before, this poster says a player is doomed with chalk involved. One is not so smart to know which players will repeat previous game performances and which ones will not. In a nut shell, I say they all play different than they played the prior game. Sometimes a "little" difference from each side gets the cover, and of course a "lot" different, and the dog rolls.
It would be great to find which portion of the 3% lay, and how much.
My church allows the sin of chalk when you have "plus" 3 points or higher in pigskins or hoops.
Just my take bud.
