When Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine in their prime didn't have to throw a ball within 6 inches of the plate you knew you had no chance..just ask the 1995 Cleveland Indians in Game 6 of the World Series..
I've always been a big proponent of considering the umpire in my handicapping. Not just in the totals but for the sides. Ie: Greg Maddux and Tommy Glavine are totally different pitchers when they can get a outside strike.
But since QuesTec I think there are only a few select umpires that remain somewhat stubborn in conforming to the league’s guidelines. The majority all call a very accurate strike zone. Then there are a few that have no business being in the bigs in which their zone varies from inning to inning or upon their mood at the time.
Today I still use four different umpires in my analysis but even then I can’t say they are responsible for more than a one or two run difference from any other ump behind the plate. It still takes a pitcher making his pitches to get a strikeout.
The days of the Hirschbeck brothers and blindly betting the under are over. Matter of fact John Hirschbeck now seems to call a very consistent and accurate strike
I still believe that some statistics have more to do with randomness than logical cause and effect.
I’ve watched a couple of his games in the last month with the sole purpose of seeing what kind of zone he was using this year. I can say with all honesty he wasn’t calling anything off the plate a strike…nor low or high. Granted watching a game on TV, (without “K” zone as a reference is not exactly the best vantage point in the world but his strike zone looked to be very accurate.
This being said he has been the poster boy for the most valuable argument to bet totals blindly because of a umpire in the past and regardless of the reasons why a record of 6-13 this year shows the well hasn’t dried up yet. I guess picking your spots with him would be the best plan unless the lines maker continues to adjust the line.