LI. Tico, I know a lot of books have numbers up to bet on who will win the tournament. I just posted these to get some opinion on the numbers. Example Xavier at 20-1 may be a good bet, possibly some books may have even better odds than the 20-1 mentioned here.
wil.
SB - you are right some of the numbers are scary.
wil.
SB - you are right some of the numbers are scary.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Well, figure their real chances at something like .4 x.4 x .35 .x .3 (or something like it) and we have them at a shocking over 50-1 at 'true' odds. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Fezzik, please correct me if I am wrong, lets say you do bet Xavier for $100 at 20 to 1. They then proceed to win 2 games and get to the final four. Most likely as dogs in the semis. Isn't there some value to be had by hedging?
Thanks, wil.
Fezzik, please correct me if I am wrong, lets say you do bet Xavier for $100 at 20 to 1. They then proceed to win 2 games and get to the final four. Most likely as dogs in the semis. Isn't there some value to be had by hedging?
Thanks, wil.
How about the many times you lose that $100 getting there Wil? Fez was 100% on, you have to figure out the true odds and work with that. If you spot true odds that are lower than paid odds then maybe there is some hedge value, but far more times than not you bet them and you will lose before your hedge opportunity comes up. I personally HATE hedging. Get a proper bankroll and make good value bets. Only hedge if something has fundamentally changed. Maybe 3% of the time I will make a bet that I think has value and then watch a game or two and see things I do not like. Something like I think Team A is hitting on all cylinders because a couple of support players are stepping up and making everyone better. Then they get two lucky wins, or they just outmuscle a couple opponents, but I don't see the improvement. Things have changed in my mind and here is a spot I might hedge. But if it is just hey my team won a couple games as I expected, no way do I hedge and give away some of the value I earned. I know a LOT of people think I am dumb for this, but hey I always keep a proper bankroll so I am 100% confident I am doing the right thing, even if it turns out my side loses along the way.
I have Okie State at 40-1.
Now, THAT is the time of futures bet you want to have.
If they make the final four, I'll consider hedge bets but only if I don't like them in the game. A lot of money gets blown from hedge bets. Bad enough the public's $20 bet faces "drive off" depreciation of 50%, but then in the unlikely event it one day is worth hundreds, the public tosses more expected value by chunk betting the other side to completely eliminate all risk...........paying commssions and fees all along the way. SUCKERS.
Now, THAT is the time of futures bet you want to have.
If they make the final four, I'll consider hedge bets but only if I don't like them in the game. A lot of money gets blown from hedge bets. Bad enough the public's $20 bet faces "drive off" depreciation of 50%, but then in the unlikely event it one day is worth hundreds, the public tosses more expected value by chunk betting the other side to completely eliminate all risk...........paying commssions and fees all along the way. SUCKERS.
