Odds of Making the Playoffs

[BigdaddyQH]

Here is a list of Bovada's current odds of teams making the 2015 College Football Playoffs:

Alabama - 7/4
Auburn - 3/1
Baylor - 4/1
Clemson - 9/2
Florida State - 3/1
Georgia - 4/1
LSU - 11/2
Michigan State - 11/2
Notre Dame - 6/1
Ohio State - 2/5
Oklahoma - 8/1
Oregon - 3/1
TCU - 7/5
UCLA - 6/1
USC - 3/1

Listed by Odds:

Ohio State -2/5 (-250)
TCU 7/5
Alabama 7/4
Auburn 3/1
Florida State 3/1
Oregon 3/1
USC 3/1
Baylor 4/1
Georgia 4/1
Clemson 9/2
LSU 11/2
Michigan State 11/2
Notre Dame 6/1
UCLA 6/1
Oklahoma 8/1

IMO of the teams listed, the ones that have the best chance to finish with 0 or 1 loss are Ohio State, TCU, Florida State, Baylor, and Michigan State. My best play is Michigan State at 11/2. They have two ways of getting in. Beat Oregon and have only one loss during the season, or beat Ohio State and win the Big 10 Championship with only one loss. Alabama, Auburn and Georgia all play each other, with Alabama coming out with the short stick because they must travel for both of those games. Georgia gets a 1-1 split, while Auburn is home for both of those games.

 

[Livinthedream]

Thanks for posting.

 

[cloverleaf]

At the rate Florida State is losing players to jail, not sure they will be able to field a team unless they can bail out players on the weekend. I think with the coach getting a divorce and all the other crap going on with the players...ain't a chance in hell FSU wins
a national title this year.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

It leads one to wonder just how good or bad the ACC really is. The Coastal Division is up for grabs again this season, with Ga. Tech, Va. Tech, Miami, Duke and North Carolina all in the mix. Any one of those 5 can win it. The Atlantic Division is still a two horse race between perrenial winner Florida State and Clemson.

This can be a year that totally reduces most of the other BCS results to dust. There is a very strong possibility that the winner of the ACC, Pac 12, and SEC Conferences will have two losses each. There is also a strong likelyhood that the Big 10 and Big 12 Conferences have two teams with 0 or 1 loss. Depending on which way the Committee chooses to go, you can have a two loss team win it all. It is going to be very interesting to see if the committee sticks to it's guns about Conference Champions compared to W-L records, and SOS, which probably kills Baylor in a wide open competition.

 

[groundhog11]

It leads one to wonder just how good or bad the ACC really is. The Coastal Division is up for grabs again this season, with Ga. Tech, Va. Tech, Miami, Duke and North Carolina all in the mix. Any one of those 5 can win it. The Atlantic Division is still a two horse race between perrenial winner Florida State and Clemson.

This can be a year that totally reduces most of the other BCS results to dust. There is a very strong possibility that the winner of the ACC, Pac 12, and SEC Conferences will have two losses each. There is also a strong likelyhood that the Big 10 and Big 12 Conferences have two teams with 0 or 1 loss. Depending on which way the Committee chooses to go, you can have a two loss team win it all. It is going to be very interesting to see if the committee sticks to it's guns about Conference Champions compared to W-L records, and SOS, which probably kills Baylor in a wide open competition.

agree big daddy...surprised above with okla being 8/1...I'm not sure if they finish top 3 in the big12.

 

[loomis41973]

LIke Clemson and ND at these odds

 

[MoneyMiller]

Wow -250 on my Buckeyes, shows ya how truly stacked they are. In my opinion this years team
is better then last year. Watch out B10, be ready to take your lumps.

 

[DesertDevil]

Odds are ridiculously off from the true odds.

Zero value in any of that.

 

[GoSooners]

Wow -250 on my Buckeyes, shows ya how truly stacked they are. In my opinion this years team
is better then last year. Watch out B10, be ready to take your lumps.

OSU is loaded, but this season they will be getting everybody's best shot

 

[REDEYE]

Bovada is probably the worst shop to be betting futures...

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I tend to agree with Red Eye's assessment, though 5dimes suckers you into the worst Vig. Just remember that these are the odds for a team just making the Playoffs, not winning it all.

 

[GoSooners]

Last year you could have got TCU at 630-1 odds to win the national championship. That's not a misprint. If TCU had jumped Ohio State in that final poll, I think there is a very good chance you would have won with that future. You could get something similar this year if for some reason or other Ohio State or the other usual suspects don't make it in. Except this time the possibilities of a TCU or some other longshot getting in go way up if these conferences start playing Russian roulette and killing themselves off. Like what has been stated here, the SEC, Pac-12 and ACC all have decent chances of having a 2 loss champion. This could possibly leave the rest of the field wide open to come in a swoop up a spot or two. Notre Dame could possibly afford to lose a game and still get in despite not playing a conference championship game. I get the feeling that we're going to have a complete surprise team this year that makes a run. But your guess is as good as mine who it will be...

 

[REDEYE]

not sure what 5dimes and there juice has to do with this kind of prop... Is there any vegas shops that have this kind of prop posted Junk ?

NCAA Division I - College Football Playoff
Thu 9/3		28101 Ohio State makes 4 team playoff		-230
12:00PM		28102 Not selected for 4 team playoff		+170
Thu 9/3		28103 Alabama makes 4 team playoff		+190
12:00PM		28104 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-270
Thu 9/3		28105 TCU makes 4 team playoff		+190
12:00PM		28106 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-270
Thu 9/3		28107 Auburn makes 4 team playoff		+350
12:00PM		28108 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-530
Thu 9/3		28109 USC makes 4 team playoff		+340
12:00PM		28110 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-510
Thu 9/3		28111 Florida State makes 4 team playoff		+315
12:00PM		28112 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-445
Thu 9/3		28113 Oregon makes 4 team playoff		+400
12:00PM		28114 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-600
Thu 9/3		28115 Baylor makes 4 team playoff		+425
12:00PM		28116 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-675
Thu 9/3		28117 Michigan State makes 4 team playoff		+550
12:00PM		28118 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-1050
Thu 9/3		28119 LSU makes 4 team playoff		+550
12:00PM		28120 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-1050
Thu 9/3		28121 Georgia makes 4 team playoff		+450
12:00PM		28122 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-750
Thu 9/3		28123 Notre Dame makes 4 team playoff		+600
12:00PM		28124 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-1200
Thu 9/3		28125 UCLA makes 4 team playoff		+600
12:00PM		28126 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-1200
Thu 9/3		28127 Clemson makes 4 team playoff		+525
12:00PM		28128 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-975
Thu 9/3		28129 Oklahoma makes 4 team playoff		+800
12:00PM		28130 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-1700
Thu 9/3		28131 Wisconsin makes 4 team playoff		+1400
12:00PM		28132 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-3600
Thu 9/3		28133 Arizona State makes 4 team playoff		+1400
12:00PM		28134 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-3600
Thu 9/3		28137 Tennessee makes 4 team playoff		+1300
12:00PM		28138 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-3000
Thu 9/3		28139 Boise State makes 4 team playoff		+2100
12:00PM		28140 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-6300
Thu 9/3		28141 Arkansas makes 4 team playoff		+1000
12:00PM		28142 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-2000
Thu 9/3		28143 Mississippi makes 4 team playoff		+975
12:00PM		28144 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-1975
Thu 9/3		28145 Georgia Tech makes 4 team playoff		+1700
12:00PM		28146 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-5100
Thu 9/3		28147 Stanford makes 4 team playoff		+1150
12:00PM		28148 Not selected for 4 team playoff		-2450
Thu 9/3		28153 2+ teams from same conference in playoff		+325
8:00AM		28154 No conference has 2+ teams in playoff		-475
Thu 9/3		28155 A two loss team selected for playoff		+180
12:00PM		28156 No two loss team selected

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I have not specifically seen odds for a 4 team playoff, but to be honest, I have not looked for one either. If you are trying to defend off shore books, do not waste your time with me. They are undefendable as far as I am concerned, starting with 5dimes and their opening -120 vig, to Bovada, (as you correctly pointed out). Here is an interesting feature of 5dimes current lines for week 1. Every game listed between a FBS team and a FCS team are all -120. Games that feature two FBS teams are -110. This is called "Desperation". I have seen it time and time again with that book. Anything to try and make an extra dime at the players expense.

 

[REDEYE]

nobody is forcing anyone to bet -120.. I'm not advocating it either unless you get a very good # that you're comfortable with... Once the #'s are put into play these lines get do get adjusted.......5dimes does offer a lot more props and options then Vegas books...Westgate comes close at times but 5dimes has more options.

 

[GoSooners]

I'm still debating whether I want to buy my $500 hotel/flight ticket to Vegas to get my 10% discount on the vig or get rid of my 5dimes account....Hmmm, let me think

 

[GoSooners]

agree big daddy...surprised above with okla being 8/1...I'm not sure if they finish top 3 in the big12.

Same here, a little surprised. Seems a little low to me considering Oklahoma is the most apathetic blueblood program in the country right now. They need to shit or get off the pot. Come talk to me about national championships after OU joins another conference...

 

[CFBLore]

Last year you could have got TCU at 630-1 odds to win the national championship. That's not a misprint. If TCU had jumped Ohio State in that final poll, I think there is a very good chance you would have won with that future.

I'm not so sure about that. I don't think TCU was very good. They almost lost to a bad Kansas school and gave up 60+ points to Baylor. Beating an uninspired Ole Miss feels a lot like the year before when Oklahoma beat an Alabama school that had no desire to be there and just slept walked through the game.

 

[CFBLore]

I do like +325 of two teams from the same conference making it. Odds are the ACC and P12 has 2/3 loss champs which all but puts two teams in from SEC/B1G/B12.

 

[GoSooners]

I'm not so sure about that. I don't think TCU was very good. They almost lost to a bad Kansas school and gave up 60+ points to Baylor. Beating an uninspired Ole Miss feels a lot like the year before when Oklahoma beat an Alabama school that had no desire to be there and just slept walked through the game.

I'm not sure I agree with you on either point, but we have no way to prove it either way. The way Bama jumped all over OU in that game they looked anything but uninspired. But who's to say once they found out the Sooners weren't going to lay down for them. TCU was a team that had the type of offense that would have given Bama fits. I think they would have outscored Bama the way OU did their bowl game. Oregon may be a different story. But the Ducks were missing just enough pieces in final game to make them vulnerable to a team like TCU. Again, it probably would have been another high scoring last team with the ball wins type of game...